Anomalous Arctic Sea Ice Melting Linked to Recent Warming Amplification

This study investigates the mechanism of seasonal sea ice variation and recent warming amplification. Seasonal temperature changes in the vertical structure reveal that the autumn and winter seasons are warming more than summer. The thermodynamic processes of sea-ice-air interactions via the heat flux component have been studied. The summer Arctic Sea ice has receded by half (∼52%), producing excessive heat. This sea ice loss plays a significant role in determining the heat exchange between the ocean and atmosphere in the following season. During a warm season, the ocean heats up due to incident solar radiation. As a result, delayed ice growth and atmospheric warming occur. Sea ice and heat flux feedbacks explain a large part of Arctic atmospheric warming. These abrupt changes are closely coupled to accelerated Arctic Sea ice loss and atmospheric warming, which are still uncertain.

Climate-Driven Differences in Growth Performance of Cohabitant Fir and Birch in a Subalpine Forest in Dhorpatan Nepal

Himalayan Silver Fir (Abies spectabilis) and Himalayan Birch (Betula utilis) are tree species often found coexisting in sub-alpine forests of the Nepal Himalayas. To assess species-specific growth performances of these species, tree-ring samples were collected from the subalpine forest in the Dhorpatan Hunting Reserve, Nepal. Standard ring width chronologies of both species were correlated with climatic variables in both static and running windows. Differential and contrasting temporal responses of radial growth of these species to climate were found. Warmer and drier springs appeared to limit birch radial growth. Whereas radial growth of fir showed weakened climate sensitivity. Moving correlation analyses revealed divergent influences of spring climate on both fir and birch. Significant warming that occurred in the 1970s coincided with growth declines in birch and an increase in fir, as indicated by basal area increment. In summary, recent warming has been unfavorable for birch, and favorable to fir radial growth.

Not All Those Who Wander Are Lost – Responses of Fishers’ Communities to Shifts in the Distribution and Abundance of Fish

As species respond to warming water temperatures, fishers dependent upon such species are being compelled to make choices concerning harvest strategies. Should they “follow fish” to new fishing grounds? Should they change their mix of target species? Should they relocate their operations to new ports? We examined how fishing communities in the Northeast United States —a hotspot of recent warming—have already responded to documented shifts in the distribution and abundance of fluke, red and silver hake. We focused on groundfish trawl communities that historically targeted these species and examined their “at-sea” responses by combining qualitative interviews with quantitative analysis of fishing records and ecological surveys. Three distinct responses emerged: shifting fishing grounds, shifting target species, and shifting port of landing. Our research finds that following the fish is rare and only occurred in one of the assessed communities, the large trawler community of Beaufort, North Carolina. The more common response was a shift in target species and a change in catch composition. However, regulations and markets often constrained the ability to take advantage of a changing mix of species within fishing grounds. Indeed, the overall species diversity in catch has declined among all of our focal communities suggesting that communities have lost the ability to be flexible when it may be most needed as a response to climate change. Additionally, the high value of fluke and the need to land in southern states with higher quota allocations is likely a driver of the changing nature of “community” with increasing vessels landing outside their home port, especially when landing fluke. Our findings suggest that fidelity to historical fishing grounds combined with perceiving environmental change as non-permanent, predispose many fishers to trust in “cyclicality” and return of species over time. However, this strategy may make those communities unable or unwilling to “follow fish” more vulnerable to changes in distribution and abundance due to climate change. Our findings have the potential to directly inform resource management policies as well as more deliberate adaptations by communities themselves as they strive to address the imminent risks of climate change.

Diatoms and other siliceous indicators track the ontogeny of a bofedal (wetland) ecosystem in the Peruvian Andes

Recent warming in the Andes is affecting the region’s water resources including glaciers and lakes, which supply water to tens of millions of people downstream. High altitude wetlands, known locally as bofedales, are an understudied Andean ecosystem despite their key role in carbon sequestration, maintaining biodiversity, and regulating water flow. Here, we analyze subfossil diatom assemblages and other siliceous bioindicators preserved in a peat core collected from a bofedal in Peru’s Cordillera Vilcanota. Basal radiocarbon ages show the bofedal likely formed during a wet period of the Little Ice Age (1520-1680 CE), as inferred from nearby ice core data. The subfossil diatom record is marked by several dynamic assemblage shifts documenting a hydrosere succession from an open-water system to mature peatland. The diatoms appear to be responding largely to changes in hydrology that occur within the natural development of the bofedal, but also to pH and possibly nutrient enrichment from grazing animals. The rapid peat accretion recorded post-1950 at this site is consistent with recent peat growth rates elsewhere in the Andes. Given the many threats to Peruvian bofedales including climate change, overgrazing, peat extraction, and mining, these baseline data will be critical to assessing future change in these important ecosystems.

Natural variability and recent warming in central Greenland ice cores

<p>Climate variability of the Arctic region has been investigated by means of temperature reconstructions based on proxies from various climate archives around the Arctic, compiled over the last 2000a in the so called Arctic2k record. However, the representativeness of the Arctic2k reconstruction for central Greenland remains unclear, since only a few ice cores have been included in the reconstruction, and observations from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIC) report ambiguous warming trends for the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century which are not displayed by Arctic2k. Today, the GIC experiences periods with temperatures close to or above the freezing point at high elevations, area-wide melting and mass loss. In order to assess the recent warming as signature of global climate change, records of past climate changes with appropriate temporal and spatial coverage can serve as a benchmark for naturally driven climate variability. Instrumental records for Greenland are short and geographically sparse, and existing temperature reconstructions from single ice cores are noisy, leading to an inconclusive assessment of the recent warming for Greenland.</p><p>Here, we provide a Greenland firn-core stack covering the time span of the last millennium until the first decade of the 21<sup>st </sup>century in unprecedented quality by re-drilling as well as analyzing 16 existing firn core sites. We find a strong decadal to bi-decadal natural variability in the record, and, while the record exhibits several warming events with trends that show a similar amplitude as the recent one, we find that the recent absolute values of stable oxygen isotope composition are unprecedented for the last 1000 years.</p><p> </p><p>Comparing our Greenland record with the Arctic 2k temperature reconstruction shows that the correlation between the two records changes throughout the last millennium. While in the periods of 1200-1300 and 1400-1650 CE the records correlate positively, between 1300 and 1400 and 1650-1700 CE shorter periods with negative correlation are found. Since then the correlation is characterized by alternation between positive and zero correlation, with a drop towards negative values at the end of the 20<sup>th</sup> century. Including re-analysis data, we hypothesize that the climate on top of the GIC was decoupled from the surrounding Arctic for the last decades, leading to the observed mismatch in observations of warming trends.</p><p>We suggest that the recently observed Greenland temperatures are a superposition of a strong natural variability with an anthropogenic long-term trend. Our findings illustrate that global warming has reached the interior of the Greenland ice sheet, which will have implications for its surface mass balance and Greenland’s future contribution to sea level rise.</p><p>Our record complements the Arctic 2k record to a profound view on the Arctic climate variability, where regional compilations may not be representative for specific areas.</p>