New Indian authority will ease water dispute in south

Subject Dispute over water-sharing from Cauvery river. Significance The government this month established a Cauvery Water Management Authority (CWMA) in relation to the Cauvery (or Kaveri) river in southern India, on the instructions of the Supreme Court. In February, the court modified a 2007 tribunal ruling regarding interstate sharing of the river’s waters. India is at high risk in the medium term of widespread water shortage. Impacts Indian cities are increasingly likely to see popular protests over water shortages. The recent deal ensuring that Beijing shares hydrological data on the Brahmaputra river with Delhi will help forge better bilateral ties. India and Pakistan will struggle to resolve their dispute over the Indus Waters Treaty.

Oil firm's demise lays China's crony capitalism bare

Subject The downfall of China CEFC Energy Company. Significance Chinese officials confirmed in late March that Chairman Ye Jianming of the China CEFC Energy Company is under investigation on suspicion of unspecified illegal activities. The energy and finance conglomerate, believed to be the world’s 222nd-largest company by revenue in 2017, has been on a worldwide investment spree. Its most recent deal was to acquire a 9.1-billion-dollar stake in Russia’s state-owned oil firm, Rosneft. However, with the apparent loss of political backing in China, the future of another of China’s largest private companies is in doubt. Impacts Ye will almost certainly be found guilty and receive a jail sentence. Some of the company’s backers in the Communist Party and the military will face investigation. China's government will seek an orderly reorganisation or breakup of the company, potentially involving a substantial bailout. Financial risks in China's economy may be revealed as further details of CEFC’s operations emerge.

Congo's Kabila will try to revive his political base

Subject Congo's political outlook. Significance Constitutionally, President Joseph Kabila's second term in office was supposed to end in December, but a recent deal with a portion of the opposition, including the elevation of an opposition figure to prime minister, has delayed elections until at least 2018. Questions remain over whether Kabila intends to run for a third presidential term, which would require a national referendum to change the constitution -- and whether he can maintain enough popular and parliamentary support to withstand the challenge of several opposition figures and a growing street protest movement. Impacts Kabila may use the electoral delay to amend the constitution, offering a legal path to a third term. The president will rely on force and patronage to rebuild his power base in his home province. International donors will consider stiffer sanctions to encourage a peaceful build-up to the 2018 elections.