Dynamic Evaluation of Policy Feasibility, Feedbacks and the Ambitions of COALitions

The Paris Agreement prioritised international bottom-up climate negotiations. Meanwhile, research has asserted the coal exit as a prerequisite for Paris-consistent pathways. The Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), an opt-in initiative toward phasing-out coal-fired electricity by mid-century, embodies both paradigms but currently encompasses just 5% of global coal demand. To assess its long-term prospects against Paris-consistent pathways, we couple the energy-economy model REMIND to an empirical coalition accession model and demonstrate a novel scenario analysis technique, Dynamic Policy Evaluation (DPE). Capturing co-evolutionary feedbacks between policy uptake and global energy markets, we simulate nationally-and-temporally-fragmented PPCA accession and analyse its sensitivity to coalition growth, sectoral ambition, and Covid-19-related uncertainty. Surprisingly, we find that virtually-global PPCA participation achieves <3% of 1.5oC-consistent coal declines, as non-electric consumption remains unregulated. In contrast, our median-estimate scenario (82% accession) assuming economy-wide coverage achieves ~53% efficacy (virtually-global: ~85%), suggesting that the PPCA should prioritise policy ambition over coalition expansion.

Dynamic Evaluation of Policy Feasibility, Feedbacks and the Ambitions of COALitions

The Paris Agreement prioritised international bottom-up climate negotiations. Meanwhile, research has asserted the coal exit as a prerequisite for Paris-consistent pathways. The Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), an opt-in initiative toward phasing-out coal-fired electricity by mid-century, embodies both paradigms but currently encompasses just 5% of global coal demand. To assess its long-term prospects against Paris-consistent pathways, we couple the energy-economy model REMIND to an empirical coalition accession model and demonstrate a novel scenario analysis technique, Dynamic Policy Evaluation (DPE). Capturing co-evolutionary feedbacks between policy uptake and global energy markets, we simulate nationally-and-temporally-fragmented PPCA accession and analyse its sensitivity to coalition growth, sectoral ambition, and Covid-19-related uncertainty. Surprisingly, we find that virtually-global PPCA participation achieves <3% of 1.5oC-consistent coal declines, as non-electric consumption remains unregulated. In contrast, our median-estimate scenario (82% accession) assuming economy-wide coverage achieves ~53% efficacy (virtually-global: ~85%), suggesting that the PPCA should prioritise policy ambition over coalition expansion.

Australian and Italian Psychologists’ View of Replication

Solutions to the crisis in confidence in the psychological literature have been proposed in many recent articles, including increased publication of replication studies, a solution that requires engagement by the psychology research community. We surveyed Australian and Italian academic research psychologists about the meaning and role of replication in psychology. When asked what they consider to be a replication study, nearly all participants (98% of Australians and 96% of Italians) selected options that correspond to a direct replication. Only 14% of Australians and 8% of Italians selected any options that included changing the experimental method. Majorities of psychologists from both countries agreed that replications are very important, that more replications should be done, that more resources should be allocated to them, and that they should be published more often. Majorities of psychologists from both countries reported that they or their students sometimes or often replicate studies, yet they also reported having no replication studies published in the prior 5 years. When asked to estimate the percentage of published studies in psychology that are replications, both Australians (with a median estimate of 13%) and Italians (with a median estimate of 20%) substantially overestimated the actual rate. When asked what constitute the main obstacles to replications, difficulty publishing replications was the most frequently cited obstacle, coupled with the high value given to innovative or novel research and the low value given to replication studies.

Behavioral changes before lockdown and decreased retail and recreation mobility during lockdown contributed most to controlling COVID-19 in Western countries

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a lockdown in many countries to control the exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, hereby reducing the time-varying basic reproduction number (Rt) to below one. Governments are looking for evidence to balance the demand of their citizens to ease some of the restriction, against the fear of a new peak in infections. In this study, we wanted to quantify the relative contribution of mobility restrictions, and that of behavioral changes that occurred already before the lockdowns, on the reduction of transmission during lockdowns in Western countries in early 2020. Methods Incidence data of cases and deaths from the first wave of infections for 35 Western countries (32 European, plus Israel, USA and Canada) were analyzed using epidemiological compartment models in a Bayesian framework. Mobility data was used to estimate the timing of changes associated with a lockdown, and was correlated with estimated reductions of Rt. Results Across all countries, the initial median estimate for Rt was 3.6 (95% IQR 2.4–5.2), and it was reduced to 0.78 (95% IQR 0.58–1.01) during lockdown. 48% (18–65%) of the reduction occurred already in the week before lockdown, with lockdown itself causing the remaining drop in transmission. A lower Rt during lockdown was independently associated with an increased time spent at home (0.21 per 10% more time, p < 0.007), and decreased mobility related to retail and recreation (0.07 per 10% less mobility, p < 0.008). Conclusions In a Western population unaware of the risk, SARS-CoV-2 can be highly contagious with a reproduction number R0 > 5. Our results are consistent with evidence that recreational activities (including restaurant and bar visits) enable super-spreading events. Exiting from lockdown therefore requires continued physical distancing and tight control on this kind of activities.

A New Approach for Extreme Proportion Calculation: Median Estimate and Its Application to Evaluate Performance of HIV Assays With 100% Test Sensitivity or Specificity

BackgroundIn the evaluation of performance of HIV assays, extreme sample proportions often occur, with test sensitivity and/or specificity of 100%, which making it challenging to assess the assays accuracies. To overcome these challenges, we propose using median estimate as an evaluation indicator for such testing.MethodsBased on the principles of binomial distribution and confidence interval, median estimate was defined as \(p={0.5}^{\frac{1}{n}}\), which means that, when the sample size n is equal to the event number x, namely the sample proportion (e.g., test sensitivity) is 100%, the 50th percentile (median) of p (the estimate of population proportion) is \({0.5}^{\frac{1}{n}}\). After demonstrating the mathematical proof of the median estimate, the key programming commands of commercial software SAS and free software R were given. Subsequently, we developed an Excel-based calculation tool that allows users to fill in data in an Excel sheet without writing any program. Six cases of HIV screening and diagnostic tests and HIV infections incidence data were selected from related articles and World Health Organization reports published between 2009 and 2020.ResultsThe median estimates, which were proved in the range from \(\frac{n-1}{n}\) to 1 and within the confidence interval range, showed statistical plausibility. Six HIV testing cases were presented to illustrate its application and elaborate on the relationship between the median estimate and the conventional simple estimate. These cases demonstrate that, when extreme proportions occurred (i.e., false positive and/or false negative in testing were zero), the conventional simple estimates of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 100% regardless of the sample size and prevalence. In contrast, the corresponding median estimates varied depending on the sample size and prevalence.ConclusionsAs evaluation indicators of HIV assays with extreme proportions, median estimates were more effective than conventional simple estimates. However, simple estimates objectively expressed the results of HIV testing. Because the correlation between median estimates and simple estimates was seamless, the two types of indicators were complementary in the evaluation of testing with extreme proportions. Hence, using both types of estimates could help evaluate HIV assays with extreme proportions more comprehensively.

An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2.

Behavioral changes before lockdown and decreased retail and recreation mobility during lockdown contributed most to controlling COVID-19 in Western countries

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a lockdown in many countries to control the exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, hereby reducing the time-varying basic reproduction number (Rt) to below one. Governments are looking for evidence to balance the demand of their citizens to ease some of the restriction, against the fear of a new peak in infections. In this study, we wanted to quantify the relative contribution of mobility restrictions, and that of behavioral changes that occurred already before the lockdowns, on the reduction of transmission during lockdowns in Western countries in early 2020. Methods Incidence data of cases and deaths from the first wave of infections for 35 Western countries (32 European, plus Israel, USA and Canada) were analyzed using epidemiological compartment models in a Bayesian framework. Mobility data was used to estimate the timing of changes associated with a lockdown, and was correlated with estimated reductions of Rt. Results Across all countries, the initial median estimate for Rt was 3.6 (95% IQR 2.4 – 5.2), and it was reduced to 0.78 (95% IQR 0.58 – 1.01) during lockdown. 48% (18% – 65%) of the reduction occurred already in the week before lockdown, with lockdown itself causing the remaining drop in transmission. A lower Rt during lockdown was independently associated with an increased time spent at home (0.21 per 10% more time, p < 0.007), and decreased mobility related to retail and recreation (0.07 per 10% less mobility, p < 0.008). Conclusions In a Western population unaware of the risk, SARS-CoV-2 can be highly contagious with a reproduction number R0 > 5. Our results are consistent with evidence that recreational activities (including restaurant and bar visits) enable super-spreading events. Exiting from lockdown therefore requires continued physical distancing and tight control on this kind of activities.

Behavioral changes before lockdown and decreased retail and recreation mobility during lockdown contributed most to controlling COVID-19 in Western countries

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has prompted a lockdown in many countries to control the exponential spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, hereby reducing the time-varying basic reproduction number ( R t ) to below one. Governments are looking for evidence to balance the demand of their citizens to ease some of the restriction, against the fear of a second peak in infections. More details on the specific circumstances that promote exponential spread (i.e. R t > 1) are needed.MethodsIncidence data of cases and deaths from the first wave of infections for 35 Western countries (32 European, plus Israel, USA and Canada) were analyzed using epidemiological compartment models in a Bayesian framework. Mobility data was used to estimate the timing of changes associated with a lockdown, and was correlated with estimated reductions of R t .ResultsAcross all countries, the initial median estimate for R t was 3.6 (95% IQR 2.4 – 5.2), and it was reduced to 0.78 (95% IQR 0.58 – 1.01) during lockdown. 48% (18% – 65%) of the reduction occurred already in the week before lockdown, with lockdown itself causing the remaining drop in transmission. A lower R t during lockdown was independently associated with an increased time spent at home (0.21 per 10% more time, p < 0.007), and decreased mobility related to retail and recreation (0.07 per 10% less mobility, p < 0.008).ConclusionsIn a Western population unaware of the risk, SARS-CoV-2 can be highly contagious with a reproduction number R 0 > 5. Our results are consistent with evidence that recreational activities (including restaurant and bar visits) enable super-spreading events. Exiting from lockdown therefore requires continued physical distancing and tight control on this kind of activities.

Australian and Italian Psychologists’ View of Replication

Many recent articles have proposed solutions to the crisis in confidence in the psychology literature, including increased publication of replication studies, a solution that requires engagement by the psychology research community. We surveyed Australian and Italian academic research psychologists about the meaning and role of replication in psychology. When asked what they consider to be a replication study, nearly all participants (98% of Australians and 96% of Italians) selected options that correspond to a direct replication. Only 14% of Australians and 8% of Italians selected any options that included changing the experimental method. Majorities of psychologists from both countries agreed that replications are very important, more replications should be done, more resources should be allocated to them, and they should be published more often. Majorities of psychologists from both countries reported that they or their students sometimes or often replicate studies, yet they also reported having no replication studies published the past 5 years. When asked to estimate the percentage of published studies in psychology that are replications, both Australians (with a median estimate of 13%) and Italians (with a median estimate of 20%) substantially overestimated the actual rate. When asked what constitute the main obstacles to replications, difficulty publishing replications was the most frequently cited obstacle, coupled with the high value given to innovative or novel research and the low value given to replication studies.

Estimation of Individual Probabilities of COVID-19 Infection, Hospitalization, and Death From A County-level Contact of Unknown infection Status

ObjectiveOur objective is to demonstrate a method to estimate the probability of a laboratory confirmed COVID19 infection, hospitalization, and death arising from a contact with an individual of unknown infection status.MethodsWe calculate the probability of a confirmed infection, hospitalization, and death resulting from a county-level person-contact using available data on current case incidence, secondary attack rates, infectious periods, asymptomatic infections, and ratios of confirmed infections to hospitalizations and fatalities.ResultsAmong US counties with populations greater than 500,000 people, during the week ending June 13,2020, the median estimate of the county level probability of a confirmed infection is 1 infection in 40,500 person contacts (Range: 10,100 to 586,000). For a 50 to 64 year-old individual, the median estimate of the county level probability of a hospitalization is 1 in 709,000 person contacts (Range: 177,000 to 10,200,000) and the median estimate of the county level probability of a fatality is 1 in 6,670,000 person contacts (Range 1,680,000 to 97,600.000).Conclusions and RelevanceEstimates of the individual probabilities of COVID19 infection, hospitalization and death vary widely but may not align with public risk perceptions. Systematically collected and publicly reported data on infection incidence by, for example, the setting of exposure, type of residence and occupation would allow more precise estimates of probabilities than possible with currently available public data. Calculation of secondary attack rates by setting and better measures of the prevalence of seropositivity would further improve those estimates.