Are today’s test cricket batsmen better than the greats of yesteryears? A comparative analysis

In sports, including Test cricket, athletes from years past serve as performance role models and set benchmarks for subsequent generations of players. Sports fans often wonder: are players of today as good as greats from the past? Alternatively, how do today’s athletes compare with greats from yesteryears? This paper attempts to answer that question for Test match cricket. We applied data mining to batting performance of eighty, now retired, Test Cricket Greats (TCG from hereon) from eight major Test cricket countries. Batting performance attributes included batting average, strike rate, numbers of fifties and hundreds scored, among others. Using k-Means cluster analysis, TCG performance records were classified into three clusters which was our Training Model. Two clusters were populated by established batsmen and the third cluster included bowlers, all-rounders with significant bowling, and some batsmen. The Learning Model was applied to predict classifications of thirty two Test Cricket Active (TCA from hereon) players. Statistical tests were performed, cluster wise, to highlight similarities and dis-similarities between TCA and TCG players. Results show that several active players, while still mid-career, have already achieved batting performance records which are at par with the best of TCG.

Swing shift: a mathematical approach to defensive positioning in baseball

Defensive repositioning strategies (shifts) have become more prevalent in Major League Baseball in recent years. In 2018, batters faced some form of the shift in 34% of their plate appearances (Sawchik, Travis. 2019. “Don’t Worry, MLB–Hitters Are Killing The Shift On Their Own.” FiveThirtyEight, January 17, 2019. Also available at fivethirtyeight.com/features/dont-worry-mlb-hitters-are-killing-the-shift-on-their-own/). Most teams use a shift that overloads one side of the infield and adjusts the positioning of the outfield. In this work we describe a mathematical approach to the positioning of players over the entire field of play without the limitations of traditional positions or current methods of shifting. The model uses historical data for individual batters, and it leaves open the possibility of fewer than four infielders. The model also incorporates risk penalties for positioning players too far from areas of the field in which extra-base hits are more likely. This work is meant to serve as a decision-making tool for coaches and managers to best use their defensive assets. Our simulations show that an optimal positioning with three infielders lowered predicted batting average on balls in play (BABIP) by 5.9% for right-handers and by 10.3% for left-handers on average when compared to a standard four-infielder placement of players.

A Great Yankee's Indian Summer: Did Lou Gehrig Experience a Temporary ALS Reversal While Playing in August 1938?

Nineteen thirty-eight was the last full season played by baseball slugger Lou Gehrig before amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) forced him to retire. He struggled to hit and field well for much of the season, and his final statistics -- a .295 batting average, 29 home runs, 114 runs batted in – were unusually low for him. But in mid-season, Gehrig enjoyed a streak in which he seemed to regain his previous power. This three-week stretch, not studied closely by neurologists or baseball historians until now, suggests that the “Iron Horse” may have experienced a temporary ALS reversal, which can be instructive for researchers and those coping with the disease.

Sample Size Sensitivity in Descriptive Baseball Statistics

This paper presents one element of a larger project that probes for systematicand predictable patterns of variability/volatility in baseball's descriptivestatistics. The larger project standardizes many baseball indices along anevent metric and provides relative estimates of each index’s point of inflectiontoward an empirical asymptote. Specifically these estimates reflect deviationsin sensitivity to “sample size” (e.g., which descriptive statistics are more orless robust across events). The end purpose of this broader investigation is aqualifier to be associated with such statistics: sample size sensitivity (TripleS). Not because it's needed, but because, colloquially, discussions of baseballstatistics are commonly qualified by the cautionary statement, "well, it's asmall sample size". The current presentation highlights the process and resultsof estimating the logarithmic event function of one statistic, batting average,and we will provide real-time projections of accuracy (our estimated functionversus in-coming baseball data that occurs during the CARMA conference).Results have implications for the integration of BigData applications intodigestable summary statistics that appeal to a broad-reaching audience withpractical implications and meaning.

The Prediction of Batting Averages in Major League Baseball

The prediction of yearly batting averages in Major League Baseball is a notoriously difficult problem where standard errors using the well-known PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) system are roughly 20 points. This paper considers the use of ball-by-ball data provided by the Statcast system in an attempt to predict batting averages. The publicly available Statcast data and resultant predictions supplement proprietary PECOTA forecasts. With detailed Statcast data, we attempt to account for a luck component involving batting averages. It is anticipated that the luck component will not be repeated in future seasons. The two predictions (Statcast and PECOTA) are combined via simple linear regression to provide improved forecasts of batting average.

Исследование динамики уровня физической подготовленности студентов аграрного вуза к сдаче нормативов комплекса «ГТО» в процессе обучения

Проведено исследование динамики физической подготовленности обучающихся аграрного вуза основной медицинской группы с 1го по 3й курсы к сдаче нормативов комплекса ГТО в процессе занятий физической культурой и спортом. Для исследования физической подготовленности обучающихся была разработана методика, основу которой составили нормативы Всероссийского физкультурноспортивного комплекса ГТО , как научно обоснованные и характеризующие жизненно важные физические качества человека. Полученные результаты тестирования по 8ми нормативам комплекса ГТО (сгибаниеразгибание рук в упоре подтягивание на перекладине упражнение на гибкость прыжки в длину с места двумя ногами кросс (юноши 3 км, девушки 2 км) бег на 100 м челночный бег (310 м) метание гранаты) были обработаны с использованием математикостатистических методов, затем были определены средние значения показателей в отдельных видах контрольных испытаний. Нами был определён интегральный индекс (уровень) физической подготовленности обучающихся 1 3 курсов (юношей и девушек) как сумма средних значений результатов по 8ми видам контрольных упражнений, выраженных в очковом эквиваленте. Установлено, что как юноши, так и девушки показали положительную динамику роста уровня физической подготовленности к сдаче нормативов комплекса ГТО . Девушки в пределах средних значений показателей (уровень бронзового значка ), юноши от среднего до уровня выше среднего (от бронзового до серебряного значка). Практическая значимость данного исследования заключается в том, что с помощью разработанной методики можно определить уровень физических качеств и уровень интегральной физической подготовленности обучающихся к сдаче нормативов комплекса ГТО в процессе обучения в вузе. Это даёт возможность вносить коррективы в организацию учебного процесса.The research of the dynamics of physical fitness of students of an agricultural university of the main medical group from the 1st to the 3rd courses for passing the standards of the GTO complex in the process of physical training and sports was carried out. To study the physical fitness of students a methodology was developed the basis of which was the standards of the AllRussian Physical Culture and Sports Complex GTO, as scientifically substantiated and characterizing the vital physical qualities of a person. The obtained test results according to the 8 standards of the GTO complex (dip up chinups mobility exercises standing long jump crosscountry run (young men 3 km, young women 2 km) 100meters race shuttle run (3 times 10 m) grenade throwing were processed using mathematical and statistical methods then the average values of indicators in certain types of control tests were determined. We determined the integral index (level) of physical fitness of students of 13 courses (young men and women) as the sum of the average values of the results for 8 types of control exercises expressed in points equivalent. It was established that both boys and girls showed positive dynamics of growth in the level of physical fitness for passing the standards of the GTO complex. Young women were within the average values of indicators (level of the bronze GTO Pin) young men from batting average to higher than batting average (from the bronze to silver GTO Pin). The practical implications of this research lie in the fact that with the help of the developed methodology it is possible to determine the level of physical qualities and the level of integral physical fitness of students for passing the standards of the GTO complex in the process of learning at a university. This makes it possible to make allowances to the organization of the educational process.

The Impact of Prior Musculoskeletal Injury and Orthopaedic Surgery on Draft Position, Availability, and Performance in Major League Baseball: A Summative Analysis of 1,890 Predraft Players

Objectives: Despite the value to future coaches, franchise management, and medical personnel, little is known about the epidemiology of musculoskeletal injuries and surgeries and their future impact prior to the MLB draft. The purpose of this study was to determine the (1) epidemiology of all musculoskeletal injuries and surgeries for predraft MLB players; (2) risk of injury or surgery on draft position; (3) risk of injury or surgery on availability within the first two years; and (4) risk of injury or surgery on performance. Methods: A total of 1,890 medical records conducted by MLB team physicians prior to the draft were retrospectively reviewed from 2014 to 2018. Players were divided into three groups: non-injured (no musculoskeletal history), non-operative (previously injured but treated non-operatively), and operative (previous injury requiring surgery). Game statistics, including draft round, missed games, batting average (BA), and earned run average (ERA) for the first 2 seasons of MLB play were obtained for all available players, Players were matched for position, and confounders were analyzed for age, draft round using ANOVA analysis. Results: A total of 927 pitchers and 963 position players were evaluated, and 38.9% had no reported injury history, 48.6% reported injury but were treated non-operatively, and 12.4% were treated operatively. The most common pre-draft injuries were elbow tendonitis (n=312), UCL injury (n=212), and shoulder labral tear (n=76). The most common pre-draft treatments were physical therapy (922, 25.3%), UCL reconstruction (115, 3.2%), and fracture fixation (69, 1.9%). No difference was found between non-injured, non-operative, and operative groups in terms of draft position, games missed, and performance (BA for position players, p = 0.7246; ERA for pitchers, p=0.1956). After position matching, age and draft round were non-confounding. Conclusion: More than half of players entering the MLB report a musculoskeletal injury requiring treatment, with the most common pathology involves the shoulder and elbow. After position matching and analyzing for confounding factors like age and draft round, musculoskeletal history did not macroscopically impact draft position, short-term availability, or performance.

Estimating the effect of plate discipline using a causal inference framework: an application of the G-computation algorithm

Offensive performance in baseball depends on a number of correlated factors: the pitches the batter faces, the batter’s choice to swing, and the batter’s hitting ability. Recently a renewed focus on the effect of plate discipline on batter performance has emerged. Plate discipline has traditionally been summarized as the proportion of pitches inside and outside of the strike zone a player swings at; however, there have been few metrics proposed to assess the effect of plate discipline directly on batters’ outcomes. In this paper, we focus on estimating a batter’s performance if he were able to adopt a different plate discipline. Because we wish to assess the effect of a counterfactual plate discipline, we use a potential outcome framework and show how the G-computation algorithm can be used to isolate the effect of plate discipline separately from a batter’s hitting ability or the types of pitches the batter faces. As an example, we implement our approach using data collected with the PITCHf/x system over the 2012–2014 seasons to identify the improvement Starlin Castro would expect to see in offensive performance were he able to adopt Andrew McCutchen’s plate discipline. We estimate that had Castro adopted McCutchen’s discipline his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage would have increased 0.017 (se = 0.004), 0.040 (se = 0.006), and 0.028 (se = 0.008), respectively.