Method of attractor reconstruction in modeling the integral risk indicator

This study examines a mathematical model for forecasting the dynamics of changes in the industrial safety risk indicator of an enterprise. The results of the development of a method for reconstructing the attractor of the integral risk indicator based on the Grassberger-Prokacchia algorithm, which is currently the most popular for analyzing time series and allowing automating the process of calculating a parameter that determines the number of points, for making a forecast. There are results of estimating the forecast of the dynamics of the behavior for a strange attractor, obtained on the basis of real data.

Symmetric Projection Attractor Reconstruction: Sex Differences in the ECG

Background: The electrocardiogram (ECG) is a key tool in patient management. Automated ECG analysis supports clinical decision-making, but traditional fiducial point identification discards much of the time-series data that captures the morphology of the whole waveform. Our Symmetric Projection Attractor Reconstruction (SPAR) method uses all the available data to provide a new visualization and quantification of the morphology and variability of any approximately periodic signal. We therefore applied SPAR to ECG signals to ascertain whether this more detailed investigation of ECG morphology adds clinical value.Methods: Our aim was to demonstrate the accuracy of the SPAR method in discriminating between two biologically distinct groups. As sex has been shown to influence the waveform appearance, we investigated sex differences in normal sinus rhythm ECGs. We applied the SPAR method to 9,007 10 second 12-lead ECG recordings from Physionet, which comprised; Dataset 1: 104 subjects (40% female), Dataset 2: 8,903 subjects (54% female).Results: SPAR showed clear visual differences between female and male ECGs (Dataset 1). A stacked machine learning model achieved a cross-validation sex classification accuracy of 86.3% (Dataset 2) and an unseen test accuracy of 91.3% (Dataset 1). The mid-precordial leads performed best in classification individually, but the highest overall accuracy was achieved with all 12 leads. Classification accuracy was highest for young adults and declined with older age.Conclusions: SPAR allows quantification of the morphology of the ECG without the need to identify conventional fiducial points, whilst utilizing of all the data reduces inadvertent bias. By intuitively re-visualizing signal morphology as two-dimensional images, SPAR accurately discriminated ECG sex differences in a small dataset. We extended the approach to a machine learning classification of sex for a larger dataset, and showed that the SPAR method provided a means of visualizing the similarities of subjects given the same classification. This proof-of-concept study therefore provided an implementation of SPAR using existing data and showed that subtle differences in the ECG can be amplified by the attractor. SPAR's supplementary analysis of ECG morphology may enhance conventional automated analysis in clinically important datasets, and improve patient stratification and risk management.

A unified and automated approach to attractor reconstruction

<p>Since acquisition costs for sensors and data collection decrease rapidly especially in the geo-scientific fields, researchers often have to deal with a large amount of multivariable data, which they would need to automatically analyze in an appropriate way. In nonlinear time series analysis, phase space reconstruction often makes the very first step of any sophisticated analysis, but the established methods are either unable to reliably automate the process or they can not handle multivariate time series input. Here we present a fully automated method for the optimal state space reconstruction from univariate and multivariate time series. The proposed methodology generalizes the time delay embedding procedure by unifying two promising ideas in a symbiotic fashion. Using non-uniform delays allows the successful reconstruction of systems inheriting different time scales. In contrast to the established methods, the minimization of an appropriate cost function determines the embedding dimension without using a threshold parameter. Moreover, the method is capable of detecting stochastic time series and, thus, can handle noise contaminated input without adjusting parameters. The superiority of the proposed method is shown on some paradigmatic models and experimental data.</p>