Fringe effects: detecting bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) at distributional boundaries in a montane watershed

Robust assessment and monitoring programs are critical for effective conservation, yet for many taxa we fail to understand how trade-offs in sampling design affect power to detect population trends and describe spatial patterns. We tested an occupancy-based sampling approach to evaluate design considerations for detecting watershed-scale population trends associated with juvenile bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) distributions. Electrofishing surveys were conducted across 275 stream sites from the Prairie Creek watershed, Northwest Territories, Canada. Site-level detectability of juvenile bull trout was not uniform, and imperfect detection affected modelled occupancy probabilities most in fringe habitats near distributional boundaries in steep reaches and large streams. We show that detecting a 30% change in watershed-level occupancy ≥78% of the time as conservation guidelines suggest, may require three repeat surveys (i.e., temporal replicates) and increased spatial sampling intensity of fringe habitats. Additional sampling effort in fringe sites could be offset by sampling fewer sites in core habitats to optimize designs for detecting demographic shifts in bull trout, while still minimizing risk of non-detection for this cryptic species.

It’s complicated…Environmental DNA as a predictor of trout and char abundance in streams

The potential to provide inferences about fish abundance from environmental (e)DNA samples has generated great interest. However, the accuracy of these abundance estimates is often low and variable across species and space. A plausible refinement is the use of common aquatic habitat monitoring data to account for attributes that influence eDNA dynamics. We therefore evaluated the relationships between eDNA concentration and abundance of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) and rainbow trout (O. mykiss) at 42 stream sites in the Intermountain West (USA and CAN) and tested if accounting for site-specific habitat attributes improved the accuracy of fish abundance estimates. eDNA concentrations were positively associated with fish abundance but these relationships varied by species and site and there was considerable variation unaccounted for. Random site-level differences explained much of this variation, but specific habitat attributes of those sites explained relatively small amounts of this variation. Our results underscore that either eDNA sampling or environmental characterization will require further refinement before eDNA can be used reliably to estimate fish abundance in streams.

Thermal landscapes in a changing climate: biological implications of water temperature patterns in an extreme year

Record-breaking droughts and high temperatures in 2015 across the Pacific Northwest, USA, provide an opportunistic glimpse into potential future thermal regimes of rivers and their implications for freshwater fishes. We applied spatial stream network models to data collected every 30 min for 4 years at 42 sites on the Snoqualmie River (Washington, United States) to compare water temperature patterns, summarized with relevance to particular life stages of native and nonnative fishes, in 2015 with more typical conditions (2012–2014). Although 2015 conditions were drier and warmer than what had been observed since 1960, patterns were neither consistent over the year nor on the network. Some locations showed dramatic increases in air and water temperature, whereas others had temperatures that differed little from typical years; these results contrasted with existing forecasts of future thermal landscapes. If we will observe years like 2015 more frequently in the future, we can expect conditions to be less favorable to native, cool-water fishes such as Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) but beneficial to warm-water nonnative species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides).

Estimating cross-population variation in juvenile compensation in survival for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus): a Bayesian hierarchical approach

Juvenile compensation in survival, quantified as compensation ratio (CR), is critical for fish population persistence. At present, no estimate of this key parameter exists for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). This species has a conservation listing and is targeted by recreational angling in portions of its range. Obtaining accurate estimates of CR is crucial to aid recovery efforts and develop sustainable fisheries policies. This investigation develops a hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis to estimate CR and explore the functional form of stock–recruitment for bull trout. Results show bull trout have high scope for density-dependent compensation evidenced by CR estimates generated herein and by previous research. This demonstrates changes in habitat quality and quantity are likely limiting recovery of many populations. However, owing to lack of data, variance is high. Limitations in available data for this analysis are due to the high cost and operational difficulty of sampling, and high uncertainty in CR estimates. This study highlights the importance of collecting additional paired stock–recruitment data to facilitate future investigations and reduce variance in CR estimates for bull trout.

Population genetics of Bull Trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Upper Athabasca river basin

Across its native range, Bull Trout (Salvelinus confluentus) extent and abundance are in decline due to historic overharvest and habitat degradation. Because Bull Trout are dependent on extensively connected, cold, clean headwater habitats, fragmentation from land use changes causes difficulty when determining the true extent and health of their populations, with Bull Trout of Alberta’s Eastern Slope region being no exception. Across this region, 431 Bull Trout from 20 sites were sampled from the Athabasca and Saskatchewan River basins and compared using 10 microsatellite loci to characterize within- and among-population genetic variation. The Saskatchewan and Athabasca River basins contained similar levels of heterozygosity but were differentiated from one another. Within the Athabasca River basin, five genetically differentiated clusters were found. Additionally, no isolation-by-distance pattern was observed between these sites. These results suggest these populations have ample genetic diversity, but genetic differentiation should be considered when deciding whether and how to alter connectivity between populations.