Forecasting the future while investigating the past. The use of computational models in pre-trial detention decisions.

The paper focuses on the traditional purpose of pre-trial detention (and other precautionary measures) to prevent specific risks. While liberty is the rule, before conviction, pre-trial detention is an absolute exception, competing with the opposite principle of the presumption of innocence: providing valuable and accurate justification for balancing the interest to prevent risk with the presumption of innocence is an overarching difficulty for judges, in the whole western world. Which the solutions? The paper reflects and compares the traditional solution of legal presumptions with the newer trend of actuarial assessment tools, based on psycho-criminological theories, based on the Italian and the uS federal systems.

Risk, Risk Assessment, and Community Corrections in China

Although risk in the criminal justice field has been subject to intensive international debate, it has not incorporated China and its growing field of community corrections. This article assesses the current initiative of developing actuarial assessment tools in China and contrasts this with its use in the correctional context. There is certainly a rift in the understanding of risk, particularly, between the risk factors in Western risk assessment tools, the political construction of risk, and the local practitioners’ embrace of correctional work. However, this article suggests that under the current mode of risk governance in China, actuarial assessment tools promoted in the correctional field simply add another layer of social control. The article highlights the importance of political and social rationalities and environments behind the construction of risk.

Probation and Parole Officers’ Compliance With Case Management Tools: Professional Discretion and Override

Actuarial assessment has become an integral component of offender management, helping to structure the decision-making of correctional staff about offenders’ case plans. Despite research validating instruments and documenting best practices in offender assessment, fewer studies explore how practitioners use these diagnostic and case management tools. Using survey data from a sample of probation and parole staff, the current study examines the influence of professional characteristics, job burnout and stress, and supervision strategy preferences on noncompliance with assessment data entry and deviations from the tools’ risk and needs recommendations. Results indicate various forms of noncompliance with case management tools are fairly common. Staff with greater tenure and heightened depersonalization and emotional exhaustion exhibit greater odds of assessment noncompliance. Case managers who adopt surveillance and rehabilitation supervisory tactics are less likely to deviate from the tools’ processes and results, while staff who prefer opportunity-reduction strategies have increased odds of assessment noncompliance.

Risk assessment of sex offenders

This essay discusses the assessment of recidivism risk in sex offenders. It begins with definitions of critical terms and concepts. A number of approaches to risk assessment are described. Validated risk instruments are reviewed, with a focus on their reliability and accuracy in predicting recidivism. Actuarial assessment of risk is described as a two-stage process. In the first stage, offenders are assessed and assigned to a risk level or stratum. In the second stage, the probability of risk over a follow-up period is estimated based on the offender’s risk ranking. The essay discusses calibration in the context of Bayes’ theorem, which reveals critically important realities involving base rates and the use of currently available standardization samples in determining a final estimate of recidivism likelihood. The essay concludes with a glimpse into the future of risk assessment and predictions about the next stage in evidence-based risk assessment of sex offenders.

Competence in Assessment and Case Conceptualization

Chapter 5 discusses how competency in assessment and case formulation are fundamental components of board certification for every psychological specialty, and how assessment, psychological testing, and case conceptualization are fundamental aspects of the professional practice of counseling psychology and complement treatment and intervention. Competency in each of these areas is judged in the examination for board certification in counseling psychology. In each case, culturally concordant and ethically appropriate practice is expected. It also covers a brief history of assessment and cultural context, culturally appropriate assessment, clinical vs. actuarial assessment, and diagnostic classifications.