Associations Between Performance on the Entrance Exam and Subsequent Academic Performance at the Federal University of Minas Gerais

This paper analyses associations between performance on the entrance exams and subsequent academic performance at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). Results clearly indicate that minority students catch up with other students while attending the university. For those who entered this institution in 2009, when the first stage of the selection process was UFMG´s own exam, the Portuguese, Mathematics, and Science exams had a larger predictive power, while the humanities and foreign language exams showed non-significant results or played smaller roles in predicting GPA outcomes. For those who were selected in the entrance exam of 2012, when the National Exam of the Secondary Level (ENEM) was used as the first stage of the selection process, all four exams (Language, Mathematics, Humanities, and Science) showed positive and significant results. In addition, the second stage of UFMG´s exam had a greater predictive power when ENEM was used as the first stage of the selection process.

How grit mediates the relations between personality and GPA in university students?

The study tested the relationships between personality, grit and grade point averages (GPAs) among university students. The sample was 406 undergraduate students (299 females and 107 males) from three universities in Istanbul. The instruments used in the study were Grit-S and the Big-Five Inventory. The data were analysed through a path analysis. The results of the path analysis for the first model exploring the relationship between personality and GPA through the mediating role of grit showed that the model did not seem sufficiently applicable for the data. In the second model, grit and neuroticism were determined as independent variables predicting GPA, whereby it seemed that conscientiousness mediated this relationship. The results for the second model showed that the neuroticism has significantly negative relationship with grit; grit has significantly positive relation to conscientiousness and conscientiousness has a significantly positive relationship with GPA. Keywords: GPA, academic success, grit, personality, university students.

Predicting GPA at Age 15 in the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study

In this paper, we describe in detail the different approaches we used to predict the GPA of children at the age of 15 in the context of the Fragile Families Challenge. Our best prediction improved about 18 percent in terms of mean squared error over a naive baseline prediction and performed less than 5 percent worse than the best prediction in the Fragile Families Challenge. After discussing the different predictions we made, we also discuss the predictors that tend to be robustly associated with GPA. One remarkable predictor is related to teacher observations at the age of nine. We end with a reflection on our participation in the Fragile Families Challenge and provide some suggestions for follow-up work.

Multiple solutions test - part II: Evidence on construct and predictive validity

In this study, we complement data on Multiple solutions test (MST) by examining its construct and predictive validity. Unlike conventional matrices where a single solution is required, MST sets three types of problems before the participants, requiring them to solve matrices for the best, the second-best, and the least accurate solution. A total sample of 235 individuals (age M = 22.65, SD = 3.33, 199 females) participated in the study. Construct validity of each task within MST was tested in relation to the KOG9 battery of intellectual abilities (N = 156), while predictive value of individual tasks and full-scale performance was tested in relation to scholastic achievement measured by GPA (N = 235). The results have shown high between-task correlations, but also pointed to the specificities of each of them. Additionally, differential difficulties among the tasks were found with the least accurate task being the most difficult, followed by the second-best, and the best one. The test showed satisfactory convergent validity in relation to Gf/Gv test markers within KOG9 battery. Furthermore, MST has shown predictive validity, along with the incremental value of alternative tasks above the standard one (when the scholastic achievem ent was taken as a criterion), as well as incremental validity in predicting GPA above the KOG9 battery. In general, MST has shown to be a valid instrument for an intelligence assess ment, and its alternative tasks have a potential to be a useful addition to standard matrices with one type of solution.

Black Box Models and Sociological Explanations: Predicting GPA Using Neural Networks

The Fragile Families Challenge provided an opportunity to empirically assess the applicability of black box machine learning models to sociological questions and the extent to which interpretable explanations can be extracted from these models. In this paper I use neural network models to predict high school grade-point average and examine how variations of basic network parameters affect predictive performance. Using a recently proposed technique, I identify the most important predictive variables used by the best-performing model, finding that they relate to parenting and the child’s cognitive and behavioral development, consistent with prior work. I conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for the relationship between prediction and explanation in sociological analyses.