A New Paradigm for South Pacific Climate Variability and Predictability

Pacific climate variability is largely understood based on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Pacific focused Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and/or the whole of Pacific region interdecadal Pacific oscillation – which respectively represent the dominant modes of interannual and decadal climate variability. However, the role of the South Pacific, including atmospheric drivers and cross-scale interactions between interannual and decadal climate variability, has received considerably less attention. Here we propose a new paradigm for South Pacific climate variability whereby the Pacific-South American (PSA) mode, characterised by two mid-tropospheric modes (PSA1 and PSA2), provides coherent noise forcing that acts to excite multiple spatiotemporal scales of oceanic responses in the upper South Pacific Ocean ranging from seasonal to decadal. While PSA1 has long been recognised as highly correlated with ENSO, we find that PSA2 is critically important in generating a sea surface temperature (SST) quadrupole pattern in the extratropical South Pacific. This sets up a precursor that optimally determines the predictability and evolution of SST 9 months in advance of the peak phases of both the leading South Pacific SST mode and ENSO. Our results show that the atmospheric PSA mode is the key driver of oceanic variability in the South Pacific subtropics.

Beyond burdens and climate refugees: a stocktake of international responsibility-sharing and South Pacific climate-induced migration

<p>This paper provides a ‘stocktake’ of common responsibility-sharing principles and goals in international agreements on climate change and refugees/migration to date and investigates how these principles might inform an Oceania agreement to deal with the emerging issue of South Pacific climate-induced migration. Where international agreements on climate change and refugees/migration overlap I identify a set of responsibility-sharing principles and goals and investigate their compatibility with the needs and demands of Pacific communities facing the prospect of climate-induced displacement. In this paper, I tap into ongoing political and academic debates concerning if and how we ought to differentiate states’ environmental responsibilities. I ask whose responsibility is it to address climate-induced migration? And what exactly are they responsible for? I find that international agreements on climate change and refugees/migration sufficiently overlap with the needs of Pacific communities to provide us with five common responsibility-sharing principles and goals that are potentially useful in the South Pacific climate migration context: the ability to pay principle, polluter pays principle, prevention, emissions reduction and (funding) adaptation. Notwithstanding responsibility-sharing’s negotiation difficulties, these responsibility-sharing principles have significant congruence with Pacific communities’ needs and demands, and thus provide us with a valuable starting point for an Oceania agreement on climate-induced migration that is informed first and foremost by the needs of those who may have to leave their homes.</p>

Beyond burdens and climate refugees: a stocktake of international responsibility-sharing and South Pacific climate-induced migration

<p>This paper provides a ‘stocktake’ of common responsibility-sharing principles and goals in international agreements on climate change and refugees/migration to date and investigates how these principles might inform an Oceania agreement to deal with the emerging issue of South Pacific climate-induced migration. Where international agreements on climate change and refugees/migration overlap I identify a set of responsibility-sharing principles and goals and investigate their compatibility with the needs and demands of Pacific communities facing the prospect of climate-induced displacement. In this paper, I tap into ongoing political and academic debates concerning if and how we ought to differentiate states’ environmental responsibilities. I ask whose responsibility is it to address climate-induced migration? And what exactly are they responsible for? I find that international agreements on climate change and refugees/migration sufficiently overlap with the needs of Pacific communities to provide us with five common responsibility-sharing principles and goals that are potentially useful in the South Pacific climate migration context: the ability to pay principle, polluter pays principle, prevention, emissions reduction and (funding) adaptation. Notwithstanding responsibility-sharing’s negotiation difficulties, these responsibility-sharing principles have significant congruence with Pacific communities’ needs and demands, and thus provide us with a valuable starting point for an Oceania agreement on climate-induced migration that is informed first and foremost by the needs of those who may have to leave their homes.</p>

EDITORIAL: Connecting the Pacific dots

When University of the South Pacific climate change scientist Elisabeth Holland gave a keynote address at the Second Pacific Climate Change Conference at Te Papa Tongarewa in Wellington, New Zealand, on February 2018, her message was simple but inspiring. In an address advocating ‘connecting the dots’ about the climate challenges facing the globe, and particularly the coral atoll microstates of the Asia-Pacific region, she called for ‘more Pacific research, by the Pacific and for the Pacific’. The 2007 Nobel Peace Prize co-recipient, Professor Holland, director of the University of the South Pacific’s Pacific Centre for Environment and Sustainable Development (PaCE-SD), noted many of the global models drawn from average statistics were not too helpful for the specifics in the Pacific where climate change had already become a daily reality.