Precursory signals of Forbush decreases with and without shock wave

Many previous studies have shown that before the beginning of a Forbush Decrease (FD) of the cosmic ray intensity, a precursor signal can be observed. All these surveys were focused on FDs that are associated with a sudden storm com- mencement (SSC). In this work we demonstrate that precursors could also be observed in events without a SSC that is determined by an abrupt increase of the interplanetary magnetic field. The type of precursory signals and their diversity among the events are the main purpose of this study. We try to figure out similarities and differences on the signals and the associated events from both categories in the last fifty years, from 1969 to 2019, using the same selection criteria of the under investigation FDs. Simultaneously the orientation of the upcoming solar disturbances in comparison to the way they configure the increase of the interplanetary magnetic field and create these signals are discussed.

Possible Advantages of a Twin Spacecraft Heliospheric Mission at the Sun-Earth Lagrangian Points L4 and L5

After the launch of STEREO twin spacecraft, and most recently of Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe spacecraft, the next mission that will explore Sun-Earth interactions and how the Sun modulates the Heliosphere will be the “Lagrange” mission, which will consist of two satellites placed in orbit around L1 and L5 Sun-Earth Lagrangian points. Despite the significant novelties that will be provided by such a double vantage point, there will be also missing information, that are briefly discussed here. For future heliospheric missions, an alternative advantageous approach that has not been considered so far would be to place two twin spacecraft not in L1 and L5, but in L4 and L5 Lagrangian points. If these two spacecraft will be equipped with in situ instruments, and also remote sensing instruments measuring not only photospheric but also coronal magnetic fields, significant advancing will be possible. In particular, data provided by such a twin mission will allow to follow the evolution of magnetic fields from inside the Sun (with stereoscopic helioseismology), to its surface (with classical photospheric magnetometers), and its atmosphere (with spectro-polarimeters); this will provide a tremendous improvement in our physical understanding of solar activity. Moreover, the L4-L5 twin satellites will take different interesting configurations, such as relative quadrature, and quasi-quadrature with the Earth, providing a baseline for monitoring the Sun-to-Earth propagation of solar disturbances.

Modeling the Sun – Earth propagation of solar disturbances for the H2020 SafeSpace project

<p>We present the solar wind forecast pipeline that is being implemented as part of the H2020 SafeSpace project. The Goal of this project is to use several tools in a modular fashion to address the physics of Sun – interplanetary space – Earth’s magnetosphere. This presentation focuses on the part of the pipeline that is dedicated to the forecasting – from solar measurements – of the solar wind properties at the Lagrangian L1 point. The modeling pipeline puts together different mature research models: determination of the background coronal magnetic field, computation of solar wind acceleration profiles (1 to 90 solar radii), propagation across the heliosphere (for regular solar wind, CIRs and CMEs), and comparison to spacecraft measurements. Different magnetogram sources (WSO, SOLIS, GONG, ADAPT) can be combined, as well as coronal field reconstruction methods (PFSS, NLFFF), wind (MULTI-VP) and heliospheric propagation models (CDPP 1D MHD, EUHFORIA). We aim at providing a web-based service that continuously supplies a full set of bulk physical parameters of the solar wind at 1 AU several days in advance, at a time cadence compatible with space weather applications. This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 870437.</p>

Review on solar disturbance studies and electric power transmission line fault in Malaysia

<span lang="EN-GB">This work is a review on previous research and studies on the solar disturbance activities and faults that occur on the electric power transmission line. Research has shown that low latitude regions could also be affected by solar disturbance events. The effects of these events on earth are considerable and may cause electric power transmission failure. Geomagnetically induced current is one of the ground impacts to the transmission line, which may cause fault or disturbance and consequently power system failure. Solar disturbance data from magnetometers and electric power transmission line fault data from a digital fault recorder are reviewed in this work. These data would be valuable in determining the characteristics and effects of solar disturbances on Malaysia’s electric power transmission lines.</span>

Pursuing Forecasts of the Behavior and Arrival of Coronal Mass Ejections through Modeling and Observations

Sophisticated instrumentation dedicated to studying and monitoring our Sun’s activity has proliferated in the past few decades, together with the increasing demand of specialized space weather forecasts that address the needs of commercial and government systems. As a result, theoretical and empirical models and techniques of increasing complexity have been developed, aimed at forecasting the occurrence of solar disturbances, their evolution, and time of arrival to Earth. Here we will review groundbreaking and recent methods to predict the propagation and evolution of coronal mass ejections and their driven shocks. The methods rely on a wealth of data sets provided by ground- and space-based observatories, involving remote-sensing observations of the corona and the heliosphere, as well as detections of radio waves.

Complexity signatures in the geomagnetic <i>H</i> component recorded by the Tromsø magnetometer (70° N, 19° E) over the last quarter of a century

Solar disturbances, depending on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field, typically result in perturbations of the geomagnetic field as observed by magnetometers on the ground. Here, the geomagnetic field's horizontal component, as measured by the ground-based observatory-standard magnetometer at Tromsø (70° N, 19° E), is examined for signatures of complexity. Twenty-five year-long 10 s resolution data sets are analysed for fluctuations with timescales of less than 1 day. Quantile–quantile plots are employed first, revealing that the fluctuations are better represented by Cauchy rather than Gaussian distributions. Thereafter, both spectral density and detrended fluctuation analysis methods are used to estimate values of the generalized Hurst exponent, α. The results are then compared with independent findings. Inspection and comparison of the spectral and detrended fluctuation analyses reveal that timescales between 1 h and 1 day are characterized by fractional Brownian motion with a generalized Hurst exponent of ~1.4, whereas including timescales as short as 1 min suggests fractional Brownian motion with a generalized Hurst exponent of ~1.6.

Complexity signatures in the geomagnetic H component recorded by the Tromsø magnetometer (70° N, 19° E) over the last ¼ century

Solar disturbances, depending on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field, typically result in perturbations of the geomagnetic field as observed by magnetometers on the ground. Here, the geomagnetic field's horizontal component, as measured by the ground-based observatory-standard magnetometer at Tromsø (70° N, 19° E) is examined for signatures of complexity. 25 year-long 10 s resolution datasets are analysed, but for fluctuations with timescales less than 1 day. Quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plots are employed first, revealing the fluctuations are better represented by Cauchy rather than Gaussian distributions. Thereafter, both spectral density and detrended fluctuation analysis methods are used to estimate values of the generalized Hurst exponent, α. The results are then compared with independent findings. Inspection and comparison of the spectral and detrended fluctuation analyses reveals that timescales between 1 h and 1 d are characterized by fractional Brownian motion with a generalized Hurst exponent of ~1.4 whereas including timescales as short as 1 min suggests fractional Brownian motion with a generalized Hurst exponent of ~1.6. This is consistent with changes in the position of the auroral electrojet that can be considered rapid during the course of an evening, whereas from minute-to-minute the electrojet moves more persistently in geomagnetic latitude.