Contract Provisions, Default Risk, and Bond Prices

This chapter presents a case study that investigates the pricing of key contract provisions in Puerto Rican debt. It contributes to a body of research that asks whether investors price contract provisions and, if so, whether the pricing varies with credit risk. Contract provisions across different types of Puerto Rican bonds contain multiple sources of variation. Specifically, the chapter examines investor pricing of three key legal provisions of Puerto Rican debt; general obligation debt versus the secured bonds issued by the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation; debt issued under New York law versus Puerto Rican law; and finally impact of the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) which retroactively enacted collective action clauses for Puerto Rican debt. In each instance, we find evidence consistent with the hypothesis that investors value specific contract provisions and legal protections and more so when credit risk is high, and restructuring becomes likely.

The Determinants of Municipal Debt Policy: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis

Cities have started to rely more on debt in recent decades, in large part in response to changes occurring externally. In this paper the authors analyze the impact of important social, political, and economic factors on municipal debt behavior. They examine the 42 largest US cities from 1980 to 1990, using a pooled time-series regression model. It was found that, generally speaking, these factors had the effect of increasing cities' reliance on revenue debt, which is less accountable to the voters than full-faith and credit debt. It is difficult to say whether local officials have consciously pursued a policy of insulating municipal debt decisions from the voters. However, it is clear that these officials are responding to environmental cues that lead them to prefer revenue debt over general-obligation debt by a large margin. Recent research has shown that cities have historically pursued a ‘politics of circumvention’. With the demand for debt increasing as other means for financing local services are constrained the effects on the polity of these preferences warrant serious attention.

The Politics and Economics of the New City Debt

This paper contrasts nonguaranteed city debt with taxation and general obligation debt. Drawing upon Bureau of the Census, Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations (ACIR) and Municipal Year Book data, the analysis shows that both per capita tax revenue and outstanding general obligation debt are best explained by background factors such as total population, functional scope, and region, while fiscal strain plays a secondary role. Political structures, in the shape of legal constraints on taxation and debt and of form of government, do not account for patterns of these traditional revenue sources. By contrast, nonguaranteed debt is best explained by a model in which fiscal strain has a paramount role, but with both legal constraints on taxing and regional differentiation contributing significantly to the explanation, at least for data collected prior to 1978. The findings suggest a two-tiered model of the revenue side of fiscal decision making, with historical accommodations to powerful economic and demographic factors dominating taxing and general obligation debt, while nonguaranteed debt serves as a flexible instrument of shorter-term strategy.