Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on the valuation of Indian companies using a financial model

PurposeFear grips stock markets when a pandemic like COVID-19 strikes, severely affecting stock prices. However, fundamental value drivers of companies do not change drastically during pandemics. The sensitivity of firms' cash flows to lockdowns during pandemics depends on their cost structure. This paper develops a financial model incorporating information about value drivers and lockdown sensitivity of companies to find the enterprise value.Design/methodology/approachThe authors develop a financial model that estimates the effects of COVID-19 on enterprise value and helps to identify wrongly valued stocks. The authors apply the model to five Indian stocks from five different industries to study how firms belonging to various sectors get affected differently in this pandemic.FindingsCompanies belonging to civil aviation and retail sectors get more affected by COVID-19 compared to those in movie exhibition, automobile and hotel industries. The cost structure of the latter category of firms reduces their cash flow effect.Practical implicationsThe model can be used by practitioners to understand any pandemic's effect on stock prices. Also, it explains how firms having different cost structures get affected by any crisis and help investors in taking appropriate buy/sell decisions.Originality/valueThe study has two contributions: first, the authors develop a financial model to estimate the effect of COVID-19 on the enterprise value. Second, contrary to popular perception, the authors find companies belonging to movie exhibition, hotel and automobile industries do not get that severely affected.

Demand driven operations management in motion picture exhibition

New opportunities for operational efficiency in movie exhibition exist as a result of recent developments in the industry, such as the mass-scale conversion to digital cinema, the explosion of customer data sources, and the availability of new channels for watching movies. This dissertation begins with an industry overview and discussion of these trends. A review of existing research on forecasting and scheduling problems in movie exhibition is utilized to identify eight factors for decision support systems for operations management in motion picture exhibition. A prototype decision support system (DSS) is constructed using customer loyalty and point of sale data from Cineplex Entertainment. The DSS that is built considers six out of the eight decision support factors that are identified through four modules. The first module projects audience composition for new release movies using loyalty data and identifies a set of the most important movie attributes for each age group. The second module leverages output from the first module with additional data to forecast ticket sales for individual theatre locations. In constructing the second model three different methods (gradient boosted regression, random forest and traditional multiple regression) are tested and the best performing method is utilized in the DSS. The third module applies the attendance forecasts to make labour recommendations. The fourth module uses output from the second module and extends the micro forecast with a concession food demand forecast which is applied to labour recommendations. The DSS is tested empirically in two different ways; firstly forecasted box office sales are compared to actual box office sales to demonstrate that the forecasts being produced are reasonably accurate. Secondly, the labour recommendations from the DSS are compared to the recommendations from the existing DSS at Cineplex and against the theatre manager’s schedules. The DSS performs better than the current schedule and the theatre manager schedule. The labour recommendations with and without the fourth module are compared to demonstrate the incremental value of the concession food module. The study concludes by highlighting further opportunities to extend the system as well as context for practical applications in the motion picture industry.

Demand driven operations management in motion picture exhibition

New opportunities for operational efficiency in movie exhibition exist as a result of recent developments in the industry, such as the mass-scale conversion to digital cinema, the explosion of customer data sources, and the availability of new channels for watching movies. This dissertation begins with an industry overview and discussion of these trends. A review of existing research on forecasting and scheduling problems in movie exhibition is utilized to identify eight factors for decision support systems for operations management in motion picture exhibition. A prototype decision support system (DSS) is constructed using customer loyalty and point of sale data from Cineplex Entertainment. The DSS that is built considers six out of the eight decision support factors that are identified through four modules. The first module projects audience composition for new release movies using loyalty data and identifies a set of the most important movie attributes for each age group. The second module leverages output from the first module with additional data to forecast ticket sales for individual theatre locations. In constructing the second model three different methods (gradient boosted regression, random forest and traditional multiple regression) are tested and the best performing method is utilized in the DSS. The third module applies the attendance forecasts to make labour recommendations. The fourth module uses output from the second module and extends the micro forecast with a concession food demand forecast which is applied to labour recommendations. The DSS is tested empirically in two different ways; firstly forecasted box office sales are compared to actual box office sales to demonstrate that the forecasts being produced are reasonably accurate. Secondly, the labour recommendations from the DSS are compared to the recommendations from the existing DSS at Cineplex and against the theatre manager’s schedules. The DSS performs better than the current schedule and the theatre manager schedule. The labour recommendations with and without the fourth module are compared to demonstrate the incremental value of the concession food module. The study concludes by highlighting further opportunities to extend the system as well as context for practical applications in the motion picture industry.

DIALOGANDO SOBRE A GRAVIDEZ NA ADOLESCÊNCIA COM ESTUDANTES DA ESCOLA MUNICIPAL JOSÉ ESMERINDO RIBEIRO – PETROLINA/PE

DISCUSSING ABOUT TEENAGE PREGNANCY WITH STUDENTS OF THE JOSÉ ESMERINDO RIBEIRO MUNICIPAL SCHOOL – PETROLINA/PECONVERSANDO SOBRE EL EMBARAZO EN LA ADOLESCENCIA CON ESTUDIANTES DE LA ESCUELA MUNICIPAL ESMERINDO RIBEIRO – PETROLINA/PETrabalhar para a promoção à saúde entre adolescentes constitui um desafio do cotidiano das equipes de saúde da família, principalmente no tocante à problemática da gravidez na adolescência, que perpassa tanto a educação quanto a saúde pública. Por ser multicausal, este problema necessita de intervenções que atuem intersetorialmente para uma abordagem mais integral e eficaz. O estudo trata de um relato de experiência de caráter descritivo realizado com adolescentes do quinto e sexto ano do ensino fundamental da Escola Municipal José Esmerindo Ribeiro, na zona rural do município de Petrolina – PE. Realizados no formato de oficinas, os encontros foram compostos por quatro momentos e desenvolvidos por profissionais de enfermagem lotadas na equipe de saúde da família Maria Tereza, Petrolina – PE. Participaram vinte adolescentes, em média, por encontro, dentre aqueles que verbalizaram interesse em participar do programa de atividade educativa ofertado pela unidade de saúde. A equipe de saúde, juntamente com a direção da escola, enviou aos pais e/ou responsáveis formulário de autorização quanto à liberação do adolescente para participação nas atividades. Os encontros envolveram exposição de filmes, interpretação de músicas, rodas de conversa, expressões teatrais e exposição oral. Dessa forma, o programa alcançou êxito entre o público de estudantes adolescentes e demonstra o potencial desses jovens como multiplicadores da informação sobre saúde, confirmando a possibilidade de ampliação das ações intersetoriais como oportunidades para a atuação na promoção à saúde.Palavras-chave: Adolescência; Atenção Básica; Sexualidade.ABSTRACTHealth promotion among teenagers constitutes a daily challenge to the family health teams, mainly regarding the issue of teenage pregnancy that involves both the Educational area and Public Health. Because of its multicausal aspect, this problem needs intersectoral interventions to achieve a more integral and effective approach. The study brings a report of the experience achieved with teenagers from 5th and 6th grade from the Public School José Esmerindo Ribeiro located on the rural area of Petrolina – PE. Held as workshops, the meetings were organized in 4 stages and conducted by professional Nurses, who worked at the Maria Tereza family health team of Petrolina – PE. About twenty teenagers attended the meetings, selected by their teachers among those who showed interest in participating of the program of educational activities offered by the Health Unit. The Health Unit, in combination with school administration, sent to the students’ parents or legal guardians an authorization form regarding the teenager clearance to participate in the activities. The meetings involved movie exhibition, song discussion, group debate, theatrical expressions and oral presentation. It is possible to consider that the program was successful among the teenage students group, which demonstrates their potential as health information multipliers and confirms the possibility of the expansion of intersectoral actions as opportunities to act on health promotion.Keywords: Adolescence; Basic Attention; Sexuality.RESUMENTrabajar promoviendo la salud entre los adolescentes constituye un desafío cotidiano de los equipos de salud familiar, principalmente en lo que se refiere a la problemática del embarazo en la adolescencia que atraviesa tanto la educación, como la salud pública. Por ser originado por varias causas, este problema necesita intervenciones que actúen intersectorialmente para un enfoque más integral y eficaz. El estudio trata de un relato de experiencia de carácter descriptivo realizado entre adolescentes del quinto y sexto año de la enseñanza fundamental de la Escuela Municipal José Esmerindo Ribeiro, en la zona rural del municipio de Petrolina – PE. Realizado en forma de talleres, las reuniones fueron compuestas de cuatro etapas y desarrolladas por profesionales de enfermería que hacen parte del equipo de salud familiar de María Teresa, Petrolina - PE. Participaron veinte adolescentes, en promedio, por encuentro, entre aquellos que verbalizaron interés en participar del programa de actividad educativa ofrecido por la unidad de salud. El equipo de salud, junto con la dirección de la escuela, envió a los padres y / o responsables formulario de autorización solicitando la liberación del adolescente para participar en las actividades. Los encuentros comprendían exposición de películas, interpretación de canciones, ruedas de conversación, expresiones teatrales y exposición oral. De esta forma, el programa alcanzó el éxito entre el público de estudiantes adolescentes y demuestra el potencial de esos jóvenes como multiplicadores de la información sobre salud, confirmando la posibilidad de ampliación de las acciones intersectoriales como oportunidades para la actuación en la promoción de la salud.Palabras clave: Adolescencia; Atención Básica; Sexualidad.