Ensemble Variability in Rainfall Forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)

Tropical cyclones (TCs) moving into the midlatitudes can produce extreme precipitation, as was the case with Hurricane Irene (2011). Despite the high-impact nature of these events, relatively few studies have explored the sensitivity of TC precipitation forecasts to model initial conditions. Here, the physical processes that modulate precipitation forecasts over the Northeast United States during Irene are investigated using an 80-member 0.5° Global Forecasting System (GFS) ensemble. The members that forecast the highest total precipitation over the Catskill Mountains in New York (i.e., wet members) are compared with the members that predicted the least precipitation (i.e., dry members). Results indicate that the amount of rainfall is tied to storm track, with the wetter members forecast to move farther west than the dry members. This variability in storm track appears to be associated with variability in analyzed upper-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV), such that the wetter members feature greater cyclonic PV southwest of Irene when Irene is off the Carolina coast. By contrast, the wetter members of a 3-km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model ensemble, initialized from the same GFS ensemble forecasts, show little sensitivity to track. Instead, the wetter members are characterized by stronger lower-tropospheric winds perpendicular to the eastern face of the Catskills, allowing maximum upslope forcing and horizontal moisture flux convergence during the period of heaviest rainfall. The drier members, on the other hand, have the greatest quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent, implying that the members’ differences in mesoscale topographic forcing are the dominant influence on rainfall rate.

Topographic forcing from East Asia and North America in the northern winter stratosphere and their mutual interference

<p>This study uses the stratosphere-resolved Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to demonstrate the “independent” and “dependent” topographic forcing from the topography of East Asia (EA) and North American (NA), and their “joint” forcing in the northern winter stratosphere. The mutual interference between the EA and NA forcing is also demonstrated. Specifically, without EA, an independent NA can also, like EA, induce a severe polar warming and weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. While EA favors a displacement of the polar vortex toward Eurasia, NA favors a displacement toward the North America–Atlantic region. However, the independent-EA-forced weakening effect on the polar vortex can be largely decreased and changes to a location displacement when NA exists, and the interference the other way around is even more critical, being able to completely offset the independent-NA-forced effect, because EA can substantively obstruct NA’s effect on the tropospheric wave pattern over the Eurasia–Pacific region. The much stronger/weaker interference of EA/NA is associated with its stronger/weaker downstream weakening effect on the zonal flow that impinges on NA/EA. The mutual interference always tends to further destruct the upward wave fluxes over the eastern North Pacific and enhance the downward wave fluxes over NA. The overall changes in upward wave fluxes, as well as that in the Rossby stationary wavenumber responsible for the stratospheric changes, are related to changes in the zonal-mean flow pattern. The joint effects of EA and NA, rather than being a linear superimposition of their independent effects, are largely dominated by the effects of EA.</p>

Topographic Forcing from East Asia and North America in the Northern Winter Stratosphere and Their Mutual Interference

This study uses the stratosphere-resolved Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model to demonstrate the “independent” and “dependent” topographic forcing from the topography of East Asia (EA) and North America (NA), and their “joint” forcing in the northern winter stratosphere. The mutual interference between the EA and NA forcing is also demonstrated. Specifically, without EA, an independent NA can also, like EA, induce a severe polar warming and weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. While EA favors a displacement of the polar vortex toward Eurasia, NA favors a displacement toward the North America–Atlantic region. However, the independent-EA-forced weakening effect on the polar vortex can be largely decreased and changes to a location displacement when NA exists, and the interference the other way around is even more critical, being able to completely offset the independent-NA-forced effect, because EA can substantively obstruct NA’s effect on the tropospheric wave pattern over the Eurasia–Pacific region. The much stronger (weaker) interference of EA (NA) is associated with its stronger (weaker) downstream weakening effect on the zonal flow that impinges on NA (EA). The mutual interference always tends to further destruct the upward wave fluxes over the eastern North Pacific and enhance the downward wave fluxes over North America. The overall changes in upward wave fluxes, as well as that in the Rossby stationary wavenumber responsible for the stratospheric changes, are related to changes in the zonal-mean flow pattern. The joint effects of EA and NA, rather than being a linear superimposition of their independent effects, are largely dominated by the effects of EA.

Meteorological Connectivity from Regions of High Biodiversity within the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica

Meteorological connectivity between biological hot spots of the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDVs) of Antarctica is thought to play a role in species distribution and abundance through the aeolian transport of bioaerosols. Understanding the potential role of such meteorological connectivity requires an understanding of near-surface wind flow within and between valley airsheds. To address this, we applied Lagrangian wind trajectory modeling to mesoscale (spatial resolution of ~1 km) weather model output to predict connectivity pathways, focusing on regions of high biodiversity. Our models produce maps of a likelihood metric of wind connectivity that demonstrate the synoptic and mesoscale dependence of connections between local, near-local, and nonlocal areas on wind transport, modulated by synoptic weather and topographic forcing. These connectivity areas can have spatial trends modulated by the synoptic weather patterns and locally induced topographically forced winds. This method is transferrable to other regions of Antarctica for broader terrestrial, coastal, and offshore ecological connectivity research. Also, our analysis and methods can inform better placement of aeolian dust and bioaerosol samplers in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, provide preliminary guidelines behind the meteorological controls of sediment transport and smaller particle distribution, and present quantifiable knowledge informing new hypotheses around the potential of wind acting as a physical driver for biological connectivity in the MDVs.