Potential Uses of Administrative Records for Triple System Modeling for Estimation of Census Coverage Error in 2020

Heterogeneity in capture probabilities is known to produce bias in the dual system estimates that have been used to estimate census coverage in U.S. Censuses since 1980. Triple system estimation using an administrative records list as a third source along with the census and coverage measurement survey has the potential to produce estimates with less bias. This is particularly important for hard-to-reach populations. The article presents potential statistical methods for the estimation of net census undercount using three systems for obtaining population information: (1) a decennial census; (2) an independent enumeration of the population in a sample of block clusters; and (3) administrative records. The 2010 Census Match Study will create census-like files for the entire nation using federal and commercial sources of administrative records. The 2010 Census Coverage Measurement Survey is an enumeration in a sample of block clusters that is independent of the 2010 decennial Census.

Emigration zones in Serbia: 2011 census results

In the last few decades there have been changes in the nature of international migration trends and spatial mobility of population on the world level. This was influenced by significant changes on the political scene of Europe and the world, globalisation, international capital flows, technical-technological progress, the IT revolution and so forth. International migration trends are mainly analysed from the perspective of the recipient countries, while research from the perspective of the origin countries is much rarer, and especially those which include both aspects. At the same time, there is an evident lack of reliable information containing data on migration trends between countries of origin and destination, regional origin and demographic structures of migrants, which hinders a more detailed territorial analysis. Serbia does not have satisfactory statistics on international migration as well, even though it is a country with long emigration tradition. The census data on the Serbian nationals working or residing abroad, regardless of the relatively large census undercount, present the main sources of statistical information on the characteristics of Serbian emigration, and practically the only source of data on their regional origin and socio-demographic features. Regional differences in view of the share of nationals abroad are very pronounced in Serbia. They were established as early as 1971 the Census and confirmed by every following census. The 2002 Census results indicated there were three typical emigration zones. The aim of the paper is to determine whether there have been changes in the spatial distribution of the emigrants from the regional aspect of Serbia as an origin country, based on 2011 Census final results. The characteristics of the Serbian citizens abroad, according to age and sex, length of stay abroad, country of destination and ethnic composition, have also been analyzed in this paper.

When You Have a Hammer …

Race statistics and race policy have been intertwined in American history since its founding, starting with the infamous three-fifths clause, continuing with policies based on nineteenth-century race science, the restrictionist immigration at the turn of the century, the Jim Crow regime, and carrying into the civil rights era through such policy concepts as institutional racism, statistical proportionality, disparate impact, and affirmative action. Across this history, the policies and the statistics were about “race,” whether they punished or benefited, were racist or antiracist. But can there be policy that misuses race statistics, that is presented as about race when it should not be? Race statistics are a powerful policy hammer in American history, but not everything is, in fact, a nail. Today the census undercount is argued over as if it is about race; it isn't really. Posing far greater danger, census race categories have worked their way into genomic medicine. The nineteenth-century belief that “race is biological” lingers in the American mind. The use of census categories in genomic medicine risks re-biologizing race. Maybe we should not leave the hammer lying around.