Using correlation matrices in predicting airline performance

The article considers the issue of making forecasts of the main indicators of the activities of airlines for their effective functioning in the air transportation market. It describes the life cycle of airlines and provides a classification of the forecasts that are currently being made. The interrelation of correlations of the key parameters of the airline’s functioning is considered, the use of correlations in forecasting is shown, actual calculations are presented, and a significant increase in forecast accuracy when using this forecasting method is demonstrated.

Comparative analysis of airline financial and operational performances: A fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS integrated approach

Already faced with tight competition and low profit margins, the airline industry is going through major changes in the wake of the current pandemic resulting in travel restrictions and slump demands, prompting airlines to curtail services and investments in every aspect of business. To that end, developing a comprehensive method of improving airline performance measures is crucial. However, this type of problem is complex to solve due to a large number of factors, requiring a systematic approach. It entails taking into account a multitude of conflicting, or sometimes interrelated criteria, hence becoming an inherently multiple criteria decision making problem. This study is aimed to assess the competitiveness of airlines and evaluate their financial and operational performances in relation to such criteria. We test FAHP, TOPSIS, and a hybrid method of combining FAHP and TOPSIS methods. In particular, regarding the hybrid method, FAHP is employed to determine the influential weights of criteria that are utilized in TOPSIS for preference values among alternatives. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methods to solving a MCDM problem of airline performance assessments using real data sets. Further, this study focuses on examining the relationship between financial and operational performance criteria, as well as gleaning insights for airlines to build an evaluation system that would aid in understanding their strength and weakness in the performance metrics. The computational experiment results of our hybrid FAHP-TOPSIS model support the efficacy of incorporating fuzzy values concerning influential weight criteria. By judiciously distributing criteria weights that are specific to the airline industry, our proposed model captures preference scores reflective of industry-related and concurrent measures. This modeling framework can help airlines better evaluate the systematic influential relation structure among criteria in critical financial and operational dimensions.

COVID-19 and Airline Performance in the Asia Pacific region

Health risks associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have severely affected the financial stability of airline companies globally. Recapturing financial stability following this crisis depends heavily on these companies’ ability to attain efficient and productive operations. This study uses several empirical approaches to examine key factors contributing to carriers sustaining high productivity prior to, during and after a major recession. Findings suggest, regardless of economic conditions, that social distancing which requires airline companies in the Asia Pacific region to fly with a significant percentage of unfilled seats weakens the performance of those companies. Furthermore, efficient operations do not guarantee the avoidance of productivity declines, especially during a recession.

ANALYSIS OF FLEET TYPE IMPACT ON THE THREATS AND ERRORS OF AN AIRLINE USING LINE OPERATIONS SAFETY AUDIT (LOSA)

In this study, three Line Operations Safety Audits (LOSAs) on an airline are carried out, their results are compared with each other, and a comparison is also made between domestic and international fleets. The LOSA is a proactive and predictive method in the Safety Management System that detects the strengths and weaknesses of airline performance under normal operations. Furthermore, it is a tool to improve the safety margin. The LOSA process is implemented on the basis of ten operating characteristics. Once the data for each LOSA was gathered and processed, the results for the three were compared. Surveys show that LOSAs provide a monitoring system for the Threat and Error Management of old generation aircraft. Domestic and international airline fleets confront different types of threats and errors in different flight phases. It is concluded that the syllabuses of training courses should be different for flight crew with respect to their fleet and the threat and error types. That are most common the obtained results can promote the importance of airlines’ Threat and Error Management based on their fleet type in the future.

Airline Quality Assessment Methodology Taking Into Account the Flight Safety Level Based on Factor Analysis

In this article, the authors offer a methodology for determining the quality of airline performance by taking into account the level of flight safety on the basis of factor analysis and the results of methodology approbation in the conditions of a functioning airline. The assessment of the level of airline performance quality taking into account the level of flight safety within a certain time span is rather sensitive, informative and reliable. They allow us to detect those changes in industrial and economic conditions and factors that are related to a certain degree of potential deterioration of flight safety. This creates conditions for revealing the tendencies towards the deterioration of flight safety at the stage of their origin, when they have not yet caused deep, irreversible changes in the flight safety of an airline.