Quantifying the Role of Occurrence Losses in Catastrophe Excess of Loss Reinsurance Pricing

The aim of this paper is to merge order statistics with natural catastrophe reinsurance pricing to develop new theoretical and practical insights relevant to market practice and model development. We present a novel framework to quantify the role that occurrence losses (order statistics) play in pricing of catastrophe excess of loss (catXL) contracts. Our framework enables one to analytically quantify the contribution of a given occurrence loss to the mean and covariance structure, before and after the application of a catXL contract. We demonstrate the utility of our framework with an application to idealized catastrophe models for a multi-peril and a hurricane-only case. For the multi-peril case, we show precisely how contributions to so-called lower layers are dominated by high frequency perils, whereas higher layers are dominated by low-frequency high severity perils. Our framework enables market practitioners and model developers to assess and understand the impact of altered model assumptions on the role of occurrence losses in catXL pricing.

Valuing Multirisk Catastrophe Reinsurance Based on the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) Model

Catastrophe risks lead to severe problems of insurance and reinsurance industry. In order to reduce the underwriting risk, the insurer would seek protection by transferring part of its risk exposure to the reinsurer. A framework for valuing multirisk catastrophe reinsurance under stochastic interest rates driven by the CIR model shall be discussed. To evaluate the distribution and the dependence of catastrophe variables, the Peaks over Threshold model and Copula function are used to measure them, respectively. Furthermore, the parameters of the valuing model are estimated and calibrated by using the Global Flood Date provided by Dartmouth College from 2000 to 2016. Finally, the value of catastrophe reinsurance is derived and a sensitivity analysis of how stochastic interest rates and catastrophe dependence affect the values is performed via Monte Carlo simulations. The results obtained show that the catastrophe reinsurance value is the inverse relation between initial value of interest rate and average interest rate in the long run. Additionally, a high level of dependence between catastrophe variables increases the catastrophe reinsurance value. The findings of this paper may be interesting to (re)insurance companies and other financial institutions that want to transfer catastrophic risks.

Pricing catastrophe reinsurance under the standard deviation premium principle

<abstract><p>Catastrophe reinsurance is an important way to prevent and resolve catastrophe risks. As a consequence, the pricing of catastrophe reinsurance becomes a core problem in catastrophic risk management field. Due to the severity of catastrophe loss, the Peak Over Threshold (POT) model in extreme value theory (EVT) is extensively applied to capture the tail characteristics of catastrophic loss distribution. However, there is little research available on the pricing formula of catastrophe excess of loss (Cat XL) reinsurance when the catastrophe loss is modeled by POT. In the context of POT model, we distinguish three different relations between retention and threshold, and then prove the explicit pricing formula respectively under the standard deviation premium principle. Furthermore, we fit POT model to the earthquake loss data in China during 1990–2016. Finally, we give the prices of earthquake reinsurance for different retention cases. The computational results illustrate that the pricing formulas obtained in this paper are valid and can provide basis for the pricing of Cat XL reinsurance contracts.</p></abstract>

An Empirical Analysis of the Property Catastrophe Reinsurance

Following a series of costly catastrophes, including Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma in 2017 and the Sichuan Earthquake in 2017, the purchase of property catastrophe reinsurance has become a major topic of debate. Many techniques for selecting an optimal retention and upper limit level have been proposed, but no entirely satisfactory method has been devised. Therefore, in practice, the setting of retentions and upper limits is still more a matter of judgment than science. In this study, we examine the determinants of property catastrophe excess-of-loss reinsurance retentions and limits for property-liability insurance companies in the U.S. insurance industry. A cross-sectional model is estimated using two-stage least squares regression. The regression analysis shows that most coefficients have the hypothesized signs and are significant. This study is the first research that provides clear evidence to support the relationship among retentions, upper limits, and co-reinsurance rates.