How Workers Fared under the ACA

Many politicians, policy makers, and analysts have debated whether the Affordable Care Act (ACA) would have negative effects on the labor market, such as reducing employment, earnings, or hours worked. Building on the existing literature, we investigated how workers' coverage changed under the ACA and whether coverage gains were associated with changes in labor market outcomes across occupations through 2017. We also examined whether occupations experiencing increased coverage through nonemployment sources (i.e., Medicaid or individual plans purchased on the ACA's Marketplaces) also experienced offsetting declines in employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) coverage. Finally, we investigated whether the employer mandate was associated with changes in ESI offers to workers. Among workers in occupations experiencing larger coverage gains under the ACA, we found no evidence that employment, hours worked, or earnings fell relative to workers in occupations that had little change in coverage rates over the same period. Moreover, ESI offers remained stable, even among workers in firms likely subject to the employer mandate. Overall, we found that predictions that the coverage provisions and mandates of the ACA would lead to adverse labor market effects did not materialize.

The Affordable Care Act and the Growth of Involuntary Part-Time Employment

This study tests whether the employer mandate under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) increased involuntary part-time (IPT) employment. Using data from the Current Population Survey between 1994 and 2015, the authors find that IPT employment in 2015 exceeded predictions based on economic conditions and the structure of the labor market. Of greater importance, using difference-in-difference methods, they find that the increase in the probability of IPT employment since passage of the ACA was greater in occupations with a larger share of workers affected by the mandate. The authors’ estimates suggest that approximately 700,000 additional workers without a college degree are in IPT employment as a result of the ACA employer mandate.

Cross-Pressuring Opinion

This chapter examines how the president cross-pressures his co-partisans by supporting policies contrary to their predispositions. There are two conditions under which the president takes stands consistent with those of opposition party identifiers and thus exposes them to cross-pressuring. First, specific White House policies may appeal to members of the opposition. Second, presidents may emphasize broader themes designed to expand their coalitions in the long run by attracting support from the opposition party. The chapter first explains how the tension between existing opinion and presidential signals tests the power of signaling before discussing four issues during Barack Obama’s second term that illustrate cross-pressuring: the National Security Agency’s surveillance policy, military action on behalf of rebels in Syria, the Affordable Care Act’s Employer Mandate regarding health care insurance, and military action against ISIS.