Reference Class Forecasting and Machine Learning for Improved Offshore Oil and Gas Megaproject Planning: Methods and Application

This article develops and describes rigorous oil and gas project forecasting methods. First, it builds a theoretical foundation by mapping megaproject performance literature to these projects. Second, it draws on heuristics and biases literature, using a questionnaire to demonstrate forecasting-related biases and principal-agent issues among industry project professionals. Third, it uses methodically collected project performance data to demonstrate that overrun distributions are non-normal and fat-tailed. Fourth, reference-class forecasting is demonstrated for cost and schedule uplifts. Finally, a predictive approach using machine learning (ML) considers project-specific factors to forecast the most likely cost and schedule overruns in a project.

The Sociological Measurement of the Population Subjectivity in the Context of the National Projects Implementation

The article raises the problem of sociological measurement of the subjectivity of the population. The subjectivity of the population is examined through the prism of studying the existing social relations in the power-society system on the example of the implementation of 12 national projects. It is noted that the solution to this problem is possible through the development of a system of empirical indicators. Based on the results of the sociological study, the following groups of indicators for measuring the subjectivity of the population have been identified. First, these are indicators that assess the position of an individual in relation to the work of the authorities and administration; secondly, indicators characterizing the level of activity of an individual’s life position; thirdly, these are the social and status characteristics of potential participants and their resource potential; and finally, these are indicators aimed at identifying social attitudes towards interaction with authorities and readiness for social self-organization. Special attention is paid to the issue of the possibility of sociological measurement of the level of subjectivity of the population. Three levels of such subjectivity are proposed: high, medium and low. The indicators that influence the level of manifestation of subjectivity of the population are highlighted. These include the degree of significance for the individual of the implemented management decision (in this case, a specific national project); forecasting the circle of people who will benefit from the implementation of national projects; the degree of scale of the population’s appeals to various subjects of regional development. In addition, the level of subjectivity of the population is influenced by the degree of interest in interacting with the authorities to discuss significant problems, as well as the willingness to defend their interests. The higher the parameters under consideration, the higher the level of manifestation of subjectivity is.

Overview of the Japanese National Project for Super/Hyper-Sonic Transport Propulsion System

The Agency of Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), MITI of Japan, started research and development on a super/hypersonic transport propulsion system in FY1989 as an eight year project. The project, forecasting a flight cruise capability of up to Mach 5, aims at establishing basic technologies for an engine that combines a ramjet engine and a high performance turbojet engine. This paper presents the background, objective, organization, contents, etc., of this national project.