A Weighted Additive Model for Comparative Analysis on Demand Factors among Multiple Seasonal Products: Nationwide Demand of Japanese Alcoholic Beverages

The climate has recently been fluctuating globally. Such climate, which affects the demand for seasonal products, varies depending on geographical conditions. However, analysis models of previous studies on nationwide demand for seasonal products have not considered differences in climate attributed to different regions in the country. Therefore, in this study, focusing on the relationship between climate and region, we extract common characteristics on the nationwide demand factors for a seasonal product group (Japanese alcoholic beverages). We propose a new demand analysis model that enables a comparative analysis among multiple items, more accurately, cross-sectionally, and concisely by using two independent factors: meteorological factors by item and regional weights (demand). We develop a new algorithm using alternating least squares for the estimation problem of inseparable parameters generated by expressing these two factors in the form of products. The validity and effectiveness of the proposed model and algorithm were confirmed by empirical analysis using public data. This makes it possible to theoretically consider regional differences (climate and demand) for nationwide demand of seasonal products. Consequently, the proposed model can be used to conduct multifaceted analysis to situation changes such as climate fluctuations to realize effective sales and operation planning of seasonal products.

THE FALLACY OF ORGANIC AND CONVENTIONAL FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PRICES IN THE METROPOLITAN REGION OF CAMPINAS, SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL

There is a popular myth or fallacy based on the idea that organic fruits and vegetables are always more expensive than conventional products. To assess whether this statement is true, a qualitative and quantitative research was conducted between September and December 2017, involving four supermarkets and seven outdoor markets, located in Campinas, in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. This statement was confirmed for the research conducted in supermarkets, but not for outdoor markets, where some organic products are cheaper than conventional ones. In fact, supermarkets sell organic products at higher prices and, normally, only the upper middle class has access to the products, but the consumer will have the option to buy conventional products at lower prices. Conventional supermarket products serve a larger number of consumers, including those with lower incomes. Most outdoor market traders are farmers who sell their own harvested products. Thus, these producers set their own prices, which are more attractive to the consumer; however, prices may vary. Due to price differences between supermarkets and free markets, consumers in general, and especially low-income consumers, obtain affordable, healthy, fresh and seasonal products, especially in outdoor markets. It is concluded that the best option for the low-income consumer is to buy organic products in open-air markets, since in these locations’ prices are generally cheaper, the products are healthier and fresher. The consumer also has access to diverse "seasonal" products, which are even cheaper and fresher are offered throughout the year, thus allowing the consumer to have a healthy and diverse diet throughout the year.