IMPACT OF DIFFERENT LIFE-CYCLE SAVING STRATEGIES AND UNEMPLOYMENT ON INDIVIDUAL SAVINGS IN DEFINED CONTRIBUTION PENSION SCHEME IN SLOVAKIA

Searching for the optimal saving strategy is often tied with the life-cycle strategies where only the age of a saver is considered for setting the allocation profile between equities and bonds. Our article contributes to the debate by looking at the performance and adequacy risks arising from applying age-based saving strategies for savers in funded pension schemes. As many studies have proven the shift of the risk onto savers in defined contribution pension schemes under various saving strategies, we contribute to the debate by providing simulations of expected accumulated savings via funded pension scheme under the various life-cycle income profiles and existence of unemployment risk. Using the resampling simulation technique, we compare the fixed and age-based strategies of three different agents with various life-cycle income paths and different unemployment risk. We compare the expected amount of savings and calculate relative indicators comparing the expected monthly benefits, income replacement rate. We look closely on the impact of unemployment on the value of savings and calculate the unemployment factor explaining the value of savings lost due to the periods of unemployment. By combining life-cycle income functions of individuals with different education level and unemployment risk, we show that decisions of implementing low risk saving strategies are suboptimal and lead to a substantial decrease in replacement ratios not only for higher income cohorts but especially for the lowest ones. At the same time, we prove that employing low risk saving strategy leads to the increase of adequacy risk especially driven by the unemployment risk that is higher for lower education individuals. We conclude that age-based life-cycle saving strategies, where the remaining saving horizon is the only factor defining the allocation profile is not the optimal saving strategy and other factors should be considered as well when searching for optimal saving strategy.

In Search of the Optimal Saving Strategy for Pan-European Pension Products

The introduction of pan-European pension products in 2020 is associated with an ongoing debate on prescribing predefined saving strategy that would both deliver adequate performance and limit the down-side risk at the end of the saving horizon. Dynamic life-cycle saving strategies are generally accepted as a good risk-mitigation tool that can be individually set. Many research papers confirm the ability of life-cycle strategies to deliver high risk-reward outcomes. Objective of our paper is to test the ability of one-factor life-cycle saving strategies based on the age and/or the remaining saving horizon to deliver the promised value for PEPP savers. We constructed 18 saving strategies divided into three groups – static saving strategies with fixed proportion of equities, dynamic life-cycle strategies based on the age and/or remaining saving horizon, and quasi-active strategies combining two factors – the remaining saving horizon and price movement. We employed the model based on moving-block bootstrapping technique and performed simulations for various economic conditions. We have tested the expected saving performance combined with the down-side risk during the saving horizon. Our findings do not confirm the general findings on life-cycle saving strategies. We claim that having the age as the only factor defining the proportion of equities in the pension saving portfolio would not be optimal. However, we found that two-factor saving strategies look promising in delivering both lower down-side risk and higher performance over the saving horizon.