Modeling Microseism Generation by Inhomogeneous Ocean Surface Waves in Hurricane Bonnie Using the Non-Linear Wave Equation

It has been shown that hurricanes generate seismic noise, called microseisms, through the creation and non-linear interaction of ocean surface waves. Here we model microseisms generated by the spatially inhomogeneous waves of a hurricane using the non-linear wave equation where a second-order acoustic field is created by first-order ocean surface wave motion. We treat range-dependent waveguide environments to account for microseisms that propagate from the deep ocean to a receiver on land. We compare estimates based on the ocean surface wave field measured in hurricane Bonnie in 1998 with seismic measurements made roughly 1000 km away in Florida.

Hurricane Bonnie (1998): Maintaining Intensity during High Vertical Wind Shear and an Eyewall Replacement Cycle

Hurricane Bonnie (1998) was an unusually resilient hurricane that maintained a steady-state intensity while experiencing strong (12–16 m s−1) vertical wind shear and an eyewall replacement cycle. This remarkable behavior was examined using observations from flight-level data, microwave imagery, radar, and dropsondes over the 2-day period encompassing these events. Similar to other observed eyewall replacement cycles, Bonnie exhibited the development, strengthening, and dominance of a secondary eyewall while a primary eyewall decayed. However, Bonnie’s structure was highly asymmetric because of the large vertical wind shear, in contrast to the more symmetric structures observed in other hurricanes undergoing eyewall replacement cycles. It is hypothesized that the unusual nature of Bonnie’s evolution arose as a result of an increase in vertical wind shear from 2 to 12 m s−1 even as the storm intensified to a major hurricane in the presence of high ambient sea surface temperatures. These circumstances allowed for the development of outer rainbands with intense convection downshear, where the formation of the outer eyewall commenced. In addition, the circulation broadened considerably during this time. The secondary eyewall developed within a well-defined beta skirt in the radial velocity profile, consistent with an earlier theory. Despite the large ambient vertical wind shear, the outer eyewall steadily extended upshear, supported by 35% larger surface wind speed upshear than downshear. The larger radius of maximum winds during and after the eyewall replacement cycle might have aided Bonnie’s resiliency directly, but also increased the likelihood that diabatic heating would fall inside the radius of maximum winds.

Distribution of Helicity, CAPE, and Shear in Tropical Cyclones

The previous study of helicity, CAPE, and shear in Hurricane Bonnie (1998) was extended to all eight tropical cyclones sampled by NASA during the Convection and Moisture Experiments (CAMEX). Storms were categorized as having large or small ambient vertical wind shear, with 10 m s−1 as the dividing line. In strongly sheared storms, the downshear mean helicity exceeded the upshear mean by a factor of 4. As in the previous study, the helicity differences resulted directly from the tropical cyclone response to ambient shear, with enhanced in-up-out flow and veering of the wind with height present downshear. CAPE in strongly sheared storms was 60% larger downshear. Mean inflow near the surface and the depth of the inflow layer each were 4 times larger downshear. At more than 30% of observation points outside the 100-km radius in the downshear right quadrant, midlatitude empirical parameters indicated a strong likelihood of supercells. No such points existed upshear in highly sheared storms. Much smaller upshear–downshear differences and little likelihood of severe cells occurred in storms with ambient wind shear below 10 m s−1. In addition to these azimuthal asymmetries, highly sheared storms produced 30% larger area-averaged CAPE and double the area-averaged helicity versus relatively unsheared storms. The vortex-scale increase in these quantities lessens the negative impact of large vertical wind shear.

Numerical Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part III: Energetics

Despite considerable research on tropical cyclones (TCs), few studies have been performed to examine inner-core energy conversions because of the lack of high-resolution data. In this study, the TC energetic characteristics in relation to intensity and structural changes under different sheared environments are investigated using a 5-day cloud-resolving simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Results show that in the presence of intense vertical shear Bonnie undergoes high-frequency fluctuations in intensity and energy conversions (at a time scale of 3 h) during the partial eyewall stage. The fluctuations are closely related to the life cycle of individual convective elements that propagate cyclonically around the downshear portion of the eyewall. The energy conversions are shown to be maximized in the vicinity of the radius of maximum wind (RMW), thus affecting strongly TC intensity. On average, about 2% of latent energy can be converted to kinetic energy to increase TC intensity. After the vertical shear subsides below a threshold, intensity fluctuations become small as convective elements reorganize into an axisymmetric eyewall in which energy conversions are more evenly distributed. Fourier decomposition is conducted to separate the wavenumber-0, -1, and -2 components of inner-core energetics. Whereas wavenumber-1 perturbations dominate the partial eyewall stage, the propagation of wavenumber-2 perturbations is shown to be closely related to individual convective elements during both the partial eyewall and axisymmetric stages. The wavenumber-2 perturbations can be traced as they move around the eyewall in the form of vortex–Rossby waves, and they play a role in determining the large intensity fluctuations during the partial eyewall stage and the formation of an outer eyewall to replace the partial inner eyewall at the later stage.

Extreme Helicity and Intense Convective Towers in Hurricane Bonnie

Helicity was calculated in Hurricane Bonnie (1998) using tropospheric-deep dropsonde soundings from the NASA Convection and Moisture Experiment. Large helicity existed downshear of the storm center with respect to the ambient vertical wind shear. It was associated with veering, semicircular hodographs created by strong, vortex-scale, radial-vertical flow induced by the shear. The most extreme values of helicity, among the largest ever reported in the literature, occurred in the vicinity of deep convective cells in the downshear-left quadrant. These cells reached as high as 17.5 km and displayed the temporal and spatial scales of supercells. Convective available potential energy (CAPE) averaged 861 J kg−1 downshear, but only about one-third as large upshear. The soundings nearest the deep cells were evaluated using two empirical supercell parameters that make use of CAPE, helicity, and/or shear. These parameters supported the possible existence of supercells as a consequence of the exceptional helicity combined with moderate but sufficient CAPE. Ambient vertical wind shear exceeded 12 m s−1 for 30 h, yet the hurricane maintained 50 m s−1 maximum winds. It is hypothesized that the long-lived convective cells enabled the storm to resist the negative impact of the shear. Supercells in large-helicity, curved-hodograph environments appear to provide a useful conceptual model for intense convection in the hurricane core. Helicity calculations might also give some insight into the behavior of vortical hot towers, which share some characteristics with supercells.

A Lagrangian Trajectory View on Transport and Mixing Processes between the Eye, Eyewall, and Environment Using a High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998)

The transport and mixing characteristics of a large sample of air parcels within a mature and vertically sheared hurricane vortex are examined. Data from a high-resolution (2-km horizontal grid spacing) numerical simulation of real-case Hurricane Bonnie (1998) are used to calculate Lagrangian trajectories of air parcels in various subdomains of the hurricane (namely, the eye, eyewall, and near environment) to study the degree of interaction (transport and mixing) between these subdomains. It is found that 1) there is transport and mixing from the low-level eye to the eyewall that carries air possessing relatively high values of equivalent potential temperature (θe), which can enhance the efficiency of the hurricane heat engine; 2) a portion of the low-level inflow of the hurricane bypasses the eyewall to enter the eye, and this air both replaces the mass of the low-level eye and lingers for a sufficient time (order 1 h) to acquire enhanced entropy characteristics through interaction with the ocean beneath the eye; 3) air in the mid- to upper-level eye is exchanged with the eyewall such that more than half the air of the eye is exchanged in 5 h in this case of a sheared hurricane; and 4) that one-fifth of the mass in the eyewall at a height of 5 km has an origin in the mid- to upper-level environment where θe is much less than in the eyewall, which ventilates the ensemble average eyewall θe by about 1 K. Implications of these findings for the problem of hurricane intensity forecasting are briefly discussed.

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part I: The Organization of Eyewall Vertical Motion

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Hurricane Bonnie at high resolution (2-km spacing) in order to examine how vertical wind shear impacts the distribution of vertical motion in the eyewall on both the storm and cloud scale. As in many previous studies, it is found here that the shear produces a wavenumber-1 asymmetry in the time-averaged vertical motion and rainfall. Several mechanisms for this asymmetry are evaluated. The vertical motion asymmetry is qualitatively consistent with an assumed balance between horizontal vorticity advection by the relative flow and stretching of vorticity, with relative asymmetric inflow (convergence) at low levels and outflow (divergence) at upper levels on the downshear side of the eyewall. The simulation results also show that the upward motion portion of the eyewall asymmetry is located in the direction of vortex tilt, consistent with the vertical motion that required to maintain dynamic balance. Variations in the direction and magnitude of the tilt are consistent with the presence of a vortex Rossby wave quasi mode, which is characterized by a damped precession of the upper vortex relative to the lower vortex. While the time-averaged vertical motion is characterized by ascent in a shear-induced wavenumber-1 asymmetry, the instantaneous vertical motion is typically associated with deep updraft towers that generally form on the downtilt-right side of the eyewall and dissipate on the downtilt-left side. The updrafts towers are typically associated with eyewall mesovortices rotating cyclonically around the eyewall and result from an interaction between the shear-induced relative asymmetric flow and the cyclonic circulations of the mesovortices. The eyewall mesovortices may persist for more than one orbit around the eyewall and, in these cases, can initiate multiple episodes of upward motion.

Numerical Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part II: Sensitivity to Varying Cloud Microphysical Processes

In this study, the effects of various cloud microphysics processes on the hurricane intensity, precipitation, and inner-core structures are examined with a series of 5-day explicit simulations of Hurricane Bonnie (1998), using the results presented in Part I as a control run. It is found that varying cloud microphysics processes produces little sensitivity in hurricane track, except for very weak and shallow storms, but it produces pronounced departures in hurricane intensity and inner-core structures. Specifically, removing ice microphysics produces the weakest (15-hPa underdeepening) and shallowest storm with widespread cloud water but little rainwater in the upper troposphere. Removing graupel from the control run generates a weaker hurricane with a wider area of precipitation and more cloud coverage in the eyewall due to the enhanced horizontal advection of hydrometeors relative to the vertical fallouts (or increased water loading). Turning off the evaporation of cloud water and rainwater leads to the most rapid deepening storm (i.e., 90 hPa in 48 h) with the smallest radius but a wider eyewall and the strongest eyewall updrafts. The second strongest storm, but with the most amount of rainfall, is obtained when the melting effect is ignored. It is found that the cooling due to melting is more pronounced in the eyewall where more frozen hydrometeors, especially graupel, are available, whereas the evaporative cooling occurs more markedly when the storm environment is more unsaturated. It is shown that stronger storms tend to show more compact eyewalls with heavier precipitation and more symmetric structures in the warm-cored eye and in the eyewall. It is also shown that although the eyewall replacement scenarios occur as the simulated storms move into weak-sheared environments, the associated inner-core structural changes, timing, and location differ markedly, depending on the hurricane intensity. That is, the eyewall convection in weak storms tends to diminish shortly after being encircled by an outer rainband, whereas both the cloud band and the inner eyewall in strong storms tend to merge to form a new eyewall with a larger radius. The results indicate the importance of the Bergeron processes, including the growth and rapid fallout of graupel in the eyewall, and the latent heat of fusion in determining the intensity and inner-core structures of hurricanes, and the vulnerability of weak storms to the influence of large-scale sheared flows in terms of track, inner-core structures, and intensity changes.

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). Part II: Water Budget

The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is used to simulate Hurricane Bonnie at high resolution (2-km spacing) in order to examine budgets of water vapor, cloud condensate, and precipitation. Virtually all budget terms are derived directly from the model (except for the effects of storm motion). The water vapor budget reveals that a majority of the condensation in the eyewall occurs in convective hot towers, while outside of the eyewall most of the condensation occurs in weaker updrafts, indicative of a larger role of stratiform precipitation processes. The ocean source of water vapor in the eyewall region is only a very small fraction of that transported inward in the boundary layer inflow or that condensed in the updrafts. In contrast, in the outer regions, the ocean vapor source is larger owing to the larger area, counters the drying effect of low-level subsidence, and enhances the moisture transported in toward the eyewall. In this mature storm, cloud condensate is consumed as rapidly as it is produced. Cloud water peaks at the top of the boundary layer and within the melting layer, where cooling from melting enhances condensation. Unlike in squall lines, in the hurricane, very little condensate produced in the eyewall convection is transported outward into the surrounding precipitation area. Most of the mass ejected outward is likely in the form of small snow particles that seed the outer regions and enhance in situ stratiform precipitation development through additional growth by vapor deposition and aggregation. This study also examines artificial source terms for cloud and precipitation mass associated with setting to zero negative mixing ratios that arise from numerical advection errors. Although small at any given point and time, the cumulative effect of these terms contributes an amount of mass equivalent to 13% of the total condensation and 15%–20% of the precipitation. Thus, these terms must be accounted for to balance the model budgets, and the results suggest the need for improved model numerics.

Low-Level Kinematic, Thermodynamic, and Reflectivity Fields Associated with Hurricane Bonnie (1998) at Landfall

During 11 h on 26 August 1998, two NOAA WP-3D aircraft deployed 85 Global Positioning System (GPS) dropwindsondes within 2° of latitude of the circulation center of Hurricane Bonnie as it made landfall in North Carolina. About 75% of the sondes successfully collected data, which were used to create a series of storm-relative horizontal maps of kinematic and thermodynamic variables from 10 m to 2 km. Reflectivity fields were analyzed from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Dopplers (WSR-88Ds) located at Wilmington and Morehead City, North Carolina, and the tail and lower fuselage radars aboard the WP-3Ds. GPS sonde performance and deployment spacing is adequate to identify several aspects of the vortex. These include 1) warm, dry, stable air in the offshore flow that results in reduced equivalent potential temperatures entering the southern portion of the eyewall, 2) cooler air collocated with the upwelled water in the right-rear quadrant and under the eyewall, and 3) an atypical radial wind pattern with strong inflow southwest of the circulation center and outflow northeast of the center. The strongly asymmetric structure found at 10 m becomes much more homogeneous by 2-km altitude. No intense rainbands developed over land in the onshore flow nor did the bands in the onshore flow undergo any significant changes once they made landfall. Beyond the eyewall the offshore flow contained much less precipitation than the onshore portion of the storm. Characteristics beyond the eyewall appear to have been modulated by the proximity to land but hurricane intensity did not vary. The authors infer that the lower energy content of the inflow was offset by the contraction of the eyewall.