Uncertainty, Spillovers, and Forecasts of the Realized Variance of Gold Returns

Using data for the group of G7 countries and China for the sample period 1996Q1 to 2020Q4, we study the role of uncertainty and spillovers for the out-of-sample forecasting of the realized variance of gold returns and its upside (good) and downside (bad) counterparts. We go beyond earlier research in that we do not focus exclusively on U.S.-based measures of uncertainty, and in that we account for international spillovers of uncertainty. Our results, based on the Lasso estimator, show that, across the various model configurations that we study, uncertainty has a more systematic effect on out-of-sample forecast accuracy than spillovers. Our results have important implications for investors in terms of, for example, pricing of related derivative securities and the development of portfolio-allocation strategies.

Esposito’s temporality of finance: Endogeneity and revisability in derivative transactions

Recent years have seen greater interest in the theoretical foundations of abstract finance and their intersection with questions of philosophy and sociology. In particular, exchanges between authors such as Donald MacKenzie, Timothy Johnson, Elie Ayache, and others have debated the deterministic or contingent dynamics of markets, as well as their interdependency with the theories that purport to describe them. Working in this tradition, Elena Esposito raises a novel question in her 2011 book, The Future of Futures: could the exchange of derivative securities within financial markets entail, not so much the provision of liquidity, but the transaction of time? In this article, I reconstruct Esposito’s analysis, arguing that the proper response to this question should be affirmative. Particular emphasis is laid on what I take to be the two fundamental and controversial premises which support this argument: first, the endogeneity of time-relations involved in financial markets; and second, the revisability of these time-relations. The advantage of recasting Esposito’s position in this way is the defence it enables against various criticisms articulated in theory and philosophy circles, such as those of Ray Brassier. Finally, I discuss the significance of Esposito’s theory, not only for this class of financial transactions, but also for certain issues in the philosophy of time.

Efficient Markets and Contingent Claims Valuation: An Information Theoretic Approach

This research article shows how the pricing of derivative securities can be seen from the context of stochastic optimal control theory and information theory. The financial market is seen as an information processing system, which optimizes an information functional. An optimization problem is constructed, for which the linearized Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation is the Black–Scholes pricing equation for financial derivatives. The model suggests that one can define a reasonable Hamiltonian for the financial market, which results in an optimal transport equation for the market drift. It is shown that in such a framework, which supports Black–Scholes pricing, the market drift obeys a backwards Burgers equation and that the market reaches a thermodynamical equilibrium, which minimizes the free energy and maximizes entropy.

Factors affecting the development of the Vietnamese derivative securities market

In the context of integration, the capital market has important implications for strengthening economic resources for development. This becomes even more important as the derivative securities market has recently emerged in some countries. It is an opportunity for countries to approach many capital sources, especially foreign capital. The objective of this paper is to identify factors affecting the development of Vietnamese derivative financial markets. The paper uses exploratory factor analysis and ordinary least squares to test the model. A survey sample includes 152 managers and experts of Vietnamese derivative securities companies in 2019. The results show that the International integration factor has the same direction, while the Legal environment factor has an adverse impact on the development of the Vietnamese derivative securities market. Therefore, Vietnamese regulatory bodies should amend some laws to create stability in the legal corridor, and state management agencies in the country need the orientation and the international integration strategy to attract financial resources for the development of Vietnam’s economy.