Forecasted Shifts in Thermal Habitat for Cod Species in the Northwest Atlantic and Eastern Canadian Arctic

Climate change will alter ecosystems and impose hardships on marine resource users as fish assemblages redistribute to habitats that meet their physiological requirements. Marine gadids represent some of the most ecologically and socio-economically important species in the North Atlantic, but face an uncertain future in the wake of rising ocean temperatures. We applied CMIP5 ocean temperature projections to egg survival and juvenile growth models of three northwest Atlantic coastal species of gadids (Atlantic cod, Polar cod, and Greenland cod), each with different thermal affinities and life histories. We illustrate how physiologically based species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to predict habitat distribution shifts and compare vulnerabilities of species and life stages with changing ocean conditions. We also derived an integrated habitat suitability index from the combined surfaces of each metric to predict areas and periods where thermal conditions were suitable for both life stages. Suitable thermal habitat shifted poleward for the juvenile life stages of all three species, but the area remaining differed across species and life stages through time. Arctic specialists like Polar cod are predicted to experience reductions in suitable juvenile habitat based on metrics of egg survival and growth potential. In contrast, habitat loss in boreal and subarctic species like Atlantic cod and Greenland cod may be dampened due to increases in suitable egg survival habitats as suitable juvenile growth potential habitats decrease. These results emphasize the need for mechanistic SDMs that can account for the combined effects of changing seasonal thermal requirements under varying climate change scenarios.

Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale

Understanding and predicting the response of marine communities to climate change at large spatial scales, and distilling this information for policymakers, are prerequisites for ecosystem-based management. Changes in thermal habitat suitability across species’ distributions are especially concerning because of their implications for abundance, affecting species’ conservation, trophic interactions and fisheries. However, most predictive studies of the effects of climate change have tended to be sub-global in scale and focused on shifts in species’ range edges or commercially exploited species. Here, we develop a widely applicable methodology based on climate response curves to predict global-scale changes in thermal habitat suitability. We apply the approach across the distributions of 2,293 shallow-water fish species under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 by 2050–2100. We find a clear pattern of predicted declines in thermal habitat suitability in the tropics versus general increases at higher latitudes. The Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean and western Africa emerge as the areas of most concern, where high species richness and the strongest declines in thermal habitat suitability coincide. This reflects a pattern of consistently narrow thermal ranges, with most species in these regions already exposed to temperatures above inferred thermal optima. In contrast, in temperate regions, such as northern Europe, where most species live below thermal optima and thermal ranges are wider, positive changes in thermal habitat suitability suggest that these areas are likely to emerge as the greatest beneficiaries of climate change, despite strong predicted temperature increases.

Environmental Flows as a Proactive Tool to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Warming on Freshwater Macroinvertebrates

What would happen in Mediterranean rivers and streams if warming but not drying occurred? We examined whether the delivery of environmental flows within a warming climate can maintain suitable macroinvertebrate habitats despite warming. A two-dimensional ecohydraulic model was used to (1) simulate the influence of water temperature and flow on macroinvertebrates by calculating habitat suitability for 12 climate change scenarios and (2) identify the mechanism by which macroinvertebrate assemblages respond to warming. The results suggest that not all watersheds will be equally influenced by warming. The impact of warming depends on the habitat conditions before warming occurs. Watersheds can, thus, be categorized as losing (those in which warming will degrade current optimal thermal habitat conditions) and winning ones (those in which warming will optimize current sub-optimal thermal habitat conditions, until a given thermal limit). Our models indicate that in losing watersheds, the delivery of environmental flows can maintain suitable habitats (and, thus, healthy macroinvertebrate assemblages) for up to 1.8–2.5 °C of warming. In winning watersheds, environmental flows can maintain suitable habitats when thermal conditions are optimal. Environmental flows could, thus, be used as a proactive strategy/tool to mitigate the ecological impacts of warming before more expensive reactive measures within a changing climate become necessary.

Flexible use of a dynamic energy landscape buffers a marine predator against extreme climate variability

Animal migrations track predictable seasonal patterns of resource availability and suitable thermal habitat. As climate change alters this ‘energy landscape’, some migratory species may struggle to adapt. We examined how climate variability influences movements, thermal habitat selection and energy intake by juvenile Pacific bluefin tuna ( Thunnus orientalis ) during seasonal foraging migrations in the California Current. We tracked 242 tuna across 15 years (2002–2016) with high-resolution archival tags, estimating their daily energy intake via abdominal warming associated with digestion (the ‘heat increment of feeding’). The poleward extent of foraging migrations was flexible in response to climate variability, allowing tuna to track poleward displacements of thermal habitat where their standard metabolic rates were minimized. During a marine heatwave that saw temperature anomalies of up to +2.5°C in the California Current, spatially explicit energy intake by tuna was approximately 15% lower than average. However, by shifting their mean seasonal migration approximately 900 km poleward, tuna remained in waters within their optimal temperature range and increased their energy intake. Our findings illustrate how tradeoffs between physiology and prey availability structure migration in a highly mobile vertebrate, and suggest that flexible migration strategies can buffer animals against energetic costs associated with climate variability and change.