Multivariate Discriminant Function Based on Six Biochemical Markers in Blood Can Predict the Cirrhotic Evolution of Chronic Hepatitis

Background: Serologic markers have been proposed for monitoring hepatic fibrosis in chronic active liver disease. Because none of these markers, when used singly, is totally satisfactory, we developed and evaluated a multivariate approach. Methods: We studied two cohorts of chronic hepatitis (54 patients) and cirrhosis patients (49 patients) to identify a panel of biochemical markers that discriminates between the two diseases. Using multivariate discriminant analysis, we selected a function, based on the concentrations of six biochemical markers (fibronectin, prothrombin, pseudocholinesterase, alanine aminotransferase, manganese superoxide dismutase, and N-acetyl-β-glucosaminidase). We then prospectively validated this function on a second temporal cohort of patients. Results: Multivariate discriminant analysis correctly classified 93.7% of patients (94.3% of chronic hepatitis and 92.9% of cirrhosis patients) in the first cohort and 85% of patients (89.5% of chronic hepatitis patients and 81% of cirrhosis patients) in the second cohort. Conclusions: Discriminant analysis of results of six inexpensive biochemical markers provides a high predictive value for differentiation between liver cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis. Consequently, these biochemical markers condensed into a multivariate discriminant analysis value for each patient provide information that can be contributory for subsequent options during the evolution of the natural history of chronic hepatitis.