THUNDERSTORM WEATHER ANALYSIS BASED ON XGBOOST ALGORITHM

Using the GPS data service platform of China seismological bureau to get the ZTD separated ZWD data pair and the content in the air, and by detecting the O3 value in the air is an effective method to analyze and study the thunderstorm weather.This paper collected the four foundations of the beibu gulf region GPS station in 10 days in August 2019 data, through ZWD numerical and O3 values after consolidation, the classification of the training and testing, in XGboost algorithm, manual adjustment method is compared with grid search method, and the results show that the model of manual adjustment method is superior to grid search model and the default model in accuracy and AUC value.

An evaluation of Chinese annual earthquake predictions, 1990–1998

The annual earthquake predictions of the China Seismological Bureau (CSB) are evaluated by means of an R score (an R score is approximately 0 for completely random guesses, and approximately 1 for completely successful predictions). The average R score of the annual predictions in China in the period 1990–1998 is about 0.184, significantly larger than 0.0. However, background seismicity is higher in seismically active regions. If a ‘random guess' prediction is chosen to be proportional to the background seismicity, the expected R score is 0.123, and the nine-year mean R score of 0.184 as observed is only marginally higher than this background value. Monte Carlo tests indicate that the probability of attaining an R score of actual prediction by background seismicity based on random guess is about . It is concluded that earthquake prediction in China is still in a very preliminary stage, barely above a pure chance level.

An evaluation of Chinese annual earthquake predictions, 1990–1998

The annual earthquake predictions of the China Seismological Bureau (CSB) are evaluated by means of an R score (an R score is approximately 0 for completely random guesses, and approximately 1 for completely successful predictions). The average R score of the annual predictions in China in the period 1990–1998 is about 0.184, significantly larger than 0.0. However, background seismicity is higher in seismically active regions. If a ‘random guess' prediction is chosen to be proportional to the background seismicity, the expected R score is 0.123, and the nine-year mean R score of 0.184 as observed is only marginally higher than this background value. Monte Carlo tests indicate that the probability of attaining an R score of actual prediction by background seismicity based on random guess is about . It is concluded that earthquake prediction in China is still in a very preliminary stage, barely above a pure chance level.