On the influence of prior information evaluated by fully Bayesian criteria in a personalized whole-brain model of epilepsy spread

Individualized anatomical information has been used as prior knowledge in Bayesian inference paradigms of whole-brain network models. However, the actual sensitivity to such personalized information in priors is still unknown. In this study, we introduce the use of fully Bayesian information criteria and leave-one-out cross-validation technique on the subject-specific information to assess different epileptogenicity hypotheses regarding the location of pathological brain areas based on a priori knowledge from dynamical system properties. The Bayesian Virtual Epileptic Patient (BVEP) model, which relies on the fusion of structural data of individuals, a generative model of epileptiform discharges, and a self-tuning Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, is used to infer the spatial map of epileptogenicity across different brain areas. Our results indicate that measuring the out-of-sample prediction accuracy of the BVEP model with informative priors enables reliable and efficient evaluation of potential hypotheses regarding the degree of epileptogenicity across different brain regions. In contrast, while using uninformative priors, the information criteria are unable to provide strong evidence about the epileptogenicity of brain areas. We also show that the fully Bayesian criteria correctly assess different hypotheses about both structural and functional components of whole-brain models that differ across individuals. The fully Bayesian information-theory based approach used in this study suggests a patient-specific strategy for epileptogenicity hypothesis testing in generative brain network models of epilepsy to improve surgical outcomes.

Factors Determining the Development of Minimum Comparable Areas and Spatial Interaction

One popular strand of literature concerning economic growth and/or GDP focuses on the growth/GDP of minimum comparable areas (MCAs), but conducting research in this area is difficult due to data problems. To understand the nature of the microlevel structure, we estimate the determinants of the GDP of MCAs in Turkey since no single study covers all towns. We use spatial models and show that regional development policies should be based on the actual contiguity of MCAs, which is not currently considered in policies. We utilize Bayesian criteria to determine the best-fitting spatial weight matrix, whereas many previous studies have chosen such matrices subjectively.

TGMD-2 Short Version: Evidence of Validity and Associations With Sex, Age, and BMI in Preschool Children

Aim: To analyze the evidence of validity and reliability of the Test of Gross Motor Development, Second Edition (TGMD-2) for low-income preschoolers; and to investigate the associations between the final model with sex, age, and body mass index (BMI). Methods: 368 preschoolers (3–5 years old [M = 4.80, SD = 0.48]; 176 boys) located in deprived areas were assessed for anthropometric measures and motor competence via the TGMD-2. A two-factor model (12 skills) was used and confirmatory indexes were calculated. The Bayesian criteria and the Composite Reliability were employed to evaluate alternative models. Relationships between the final model proposed with age, sex, and BMI were calculated using a network analysis (Mplus 8.0; Rstudio). Results: A two-factor model (locomotion and object control) with adequate values (>0.30) for the six skills (gallop, leap, slide, strike, throw, and roll) presented excellent indexes. Relationships between sex and throwing (r = −.22), and strike (r = −.21), indicated better performance for boys. Positive relationships were found for age with slide (r = 0.23) and hop (r = 0.28), and for BMI with throw (r = 0.18). Conclusion: Validity of a TGMD-2 short version for low-income preschoolers was present. The machine learning analysis to associate fundamental movement skills with gender, age, and BMI seems useful to optimize future interventions.

Molecular and cytological evidences denied the immediate-hybrid hypothesis for Saxifraga yuparensis (sect. Bronchiales, Saxifragaceae) endemic to Mt. Yubari in Hokkaido, northern Japan

SAYA TAMURA, TOMOKO FUKUDA, ELENA A. PIMENOVA, EKATERINA A. PETRUNENKO, PAVEL V. KRESTOV, SVETLANA N. BONDARCHUK, OLGA A. CHERNYAGINA, YOSHIHISA SUYAMA, YOSHIHIRO TSUNAMOTO, AYUMU MATSUO, HAYATO TSUBOI, HIDEKI TAKAHASHI, KEN SATO, YOKO NISHIKAWA, TAKASHI SHIMAMURA, HIROKO FUJITA & KOH NAKAMURA An alpine plant Saxifraga yuparensis is endemic to a scree consisting of greenschist of Mt. Yubari in Hokkaido, Japan and it has been proposed as an immediate hybrid derived from two species of the same section Bronchiales based on morphological intermediacy: namely S. nishidae, a diploid species endemic to a nearby cliff composed of greenschist and tetraploid S. rebunshirensis comparatively broadly distributed in Japan and Russian Far East. Saxifraga yuparensis is red-listed and it is crucial for conservation planning to clarify whether this is an immediate hybrid and lacks a unique gene pool. The immediate-hybrid hypothesis was tested by molecular and cytological data. In nuclear ribosomal and chloroplast DNA trees based on maximum parsimony and Bayesian criteria, S. yuparensis and S. rebunshirensis formed a clade with several other congeners while S. nishidae formed another distinct clade. Genome-wide SNP data clearly separated these three species in principal coordinate space, placing S. yuparensis not in-between of S. rebunshirensis and S. nishidae. Chromosome observation indicated that S. yuparensis is tetraploid, not triploid directly derived from diploid-tetraploid crossing. Additionally, observation of herbarium specimens revealed that leaf apex shape of S. yuparensis fell within the variation of S. rebunshirensis. These results indicate that S. yuparensis is not an immediate hybrid of S. rebunshirensis and S. nishidae but a distinct lineage and an extremely narrow endemic species, that deserves for intensive conservation.

Molecular phylogeny of Saudi Arabian Tetraena Maxim. and Zygophyllum L. (Zygophyllaceae) based on plastid DNA sequences

In order to provide a basis for better understanding of phylogenetic relationships of Saudi Arabian Tetraena Maxim. and Zygophyllum L., 44 specimens representing seven taxa, were reconstructed based on chloroplast DNA data of rbcL and trnL-F. The combined chloroplast (rbcL and trnL-F) contributed more phylogenetically informative characters than in individual regions. Phylogenetic analysis of the combined chloroplast (rbcL and trnL-F) and in individual regions based on both of Maximum Parsimony and Bayesian criteria showed that the Saudi Arabian species of Tetraena and Zygophyllum were monophyletic. Zygophyllum fabag L. was nested in one clade with Z. xanthoxylum (Bunge) Engl. (Asian species), and all taxa of Tetraena were distributed in other clades.Bangladesh J. Plant Taxon. 24(2): 155–164.

Vacuum dynamics in the Universe versus a rigid Λ=const.

In this year, in which we celebrate 100 years of the cosmological term, [Formula: see text], in Einstein’s gravitational field equations, we are still facing the crucial question whether [Formula: see text] is truly a fundamental constant or a mildly evolving dynamical variable. After many theoretical attempts to understand the meaning of [Formula: see text], and in view of the enhanced accuracy of the cosmological observations, it seems now mandatory that this issue should be first settled empirically before further theoretical speculations on its ultimate nature. In this review, we summarize the situation of some of these studies. Devoted analyses made recently show that the [Formula: see text] hypothesis, despite being the simplest, may well not be the most favored one. The overall fit to the cosmological observables SNIa[Formula: see text]+[Formula: see text]BAO[Formula: see text]+H(z)[Formula: see text]+[Formula: see text]LSS[Formula: see text]+[Formula: see text]BBN[Formula: see text]+[Formula: see text]CMB single out the class of “running” vacuum models (RVMs), in which [Formula: see text] is an affine power-law function of the Hubble rate. It turns out that the performance of the RVM as compared to the “concordance” [Formula: see text] model (with [Formula: see text]) is much better. The evidence in support of the RVM may reach [Formula: see text] c.l., and is bolstered with Akaike and Bayesian criteria providing strong evidence in favor of the RVM option. We also address the implications of this framework on the tension between the CMB and local measurements of the current Hubble parameter.

PNN-based Rockburst Prediction Model and Its Applications

Rock burst is one of main engineering geological problems significantly threatening the safety of construction. Prediction of rock burst is always an important issue concerning the safety of workers and equipment in tunnels. In this paper, a novel PNN-based rock burst prediction model is proposed to determine whether rock burst will happen in the underground rock projects and how much the intensity of rock burst is. The probabilistic neural network (PNN) is developed based on Bayesian criteria of multivariate pattern classification. Because PNN has the advantages of low training complexity, high stability, quick convergence, and simple construction, it can be well applied in the prediction of rock burst. Some main control factors, such as rocks’ maximum tangential stress, rocks’ uniaxial compressive strength, rocks’ uniaxial tensile strength, and elastic energy index of rock are chosen as the characteristic vector of PNN. PNN model is obtained through training data sets of rock burst samples which come from underground rock project in domestic and abroad. Other samples are tested with the model. The testing results agree with the practical records. At the same time, two real-world applications are used to verify the proposed method. The results of prediction are same as the results of existing methods, just same as what happened in the scene, which verifies the effectiveness and applicability of our proposed work.

Cosmological constant vis-à-vis dynamical vacuum: Bold challenging the ΛCDM

Next year we will celebrate 100 years of the cosmological term, [Formula: see text], in Einstein’s gravitational field equations, also 50 years since the cosmological constant problem was first formulated by Zeldovich, and almost about two decades of the observational evidence that a nonvanishing, positive, [Formula: see text]-term could be the simplest phenomenological explanation for the observed acceleration of the Universe. This mixed state of affairs already shows that we do no currently understand the theoretical nature of [Formula: see text]. In particular, we are still facing the crucial question whether [Formula: see text] is truly a fundamental constant or a mildly evolving dynamical variable. At this point the matter should be settled once more empirically and, amazingly enough, the wealth of observational data at our disposal can presently shed true light on it. In this short review, I summarize the situation of some of these studies. It turns out that the [Formula: see text]. hypothesis, despite being the simplest, may well not be the most favored one when we put it in hard-fought competition with specific dynamical models of the vacuum energy. Recently, it has been shown that the overall fit to the cosmological observables SNIa+BAO+H(z)+LSS+BBN+CMB do favor the class of “running” vacuum models (RVM’s) — in which [Formula: see text] is a function of the Hubble rate — against the “concordance” [Formula: see text]CDM model. The support is at an unprecedented level of [Formula: see text] and is backed up with Akaike and Bayesian criteria leading to compelling evidence in favor of the RVM option and other related dynamical vacuum models. I also address the implications of this framework on the possible time evolution of the fundamental constants of Nature.

Comparison of estimates using censored samples from Gompertz model: Bayesian, E-Bayesian, hierarchical Bayesian and empirical Bayesian schemes

<p>This paper aims to introduce a comparative study for the E-Bayesian criteria with three various Bayesian approaches; Bayesian, hierarchical Bayesian and empirical Bayesian. This study is concerned to estimate the shape parameter and the hazard function of the Gompertz distribution based on type-II censoring. All estimators are obtained under symmetric loss function [squared error loss (SELF))] and three different asymmetric loss functions [quadratic loss function (QLF), entropy loss function (ELF) and LINEX loss function (LLF)]. Comparisons among all estimators are achieved in terms of mean square error (MSE) via Monte Carlo simulation.</p>