Assessment and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover Change in the National Capital of Burundi Using Multi-temporary Landsat Data and Cellular Automata-Markov Chain Model

Gitega District has experienced significant land use and land cover changes due to human activity. This has increased land degradation and environmental issues. However, there is no data on LULC change to guide land-use planning. This study assessed the rate and magnitude of LULC change over the last 35 years and also simulated future scenarios using Geoinformatics. In the first step, five LULC classes were extracted from satellite images from 1984, 2002, and 2019 using the supervised classification method. Overall accuracy and Kappa statistics of more than 85% and 82% respectively were achieved with 30 reference samples. Change analysis highlighted by Land Change Modeler (1984-2019) indicated a significant increase in Agriculture of 94 km2, a slight increase in Shrub Land and Built-up Area of 5.5 km2 and 2 km2, respectively; and a steep decrease in Trees Cover and Grass Land of 62.5 km2 and 39 km2, respectively. Markov Chain and CA-Markov models were further calibrated to simulate LULC changes in 2038 and 2057 using the 2019 base map. Evaluation and analysis of 2019-2057 simulation results showed a moderate agreement of 75% for Kappa and the same trends of LULC change: Trees Cover, Grass Land, and Shrub Land will decrease by 11.5 km2, 13 km2, 11.5 km2 respectively, whereas Agriculture and Built-up Area will increase by 30 km2 and 6 km2 respectively in 2057. These study outcomes can support decision-making towards restoration measures of land degradation and long-term environmental conservation in the region.

The Response Relationship between Land Use/Land Cover and Watershed Lagged Effect based on Different Time Scales--A Case Study in Central Guizhou of China*

As we all know, the drought occurrence indicates that there is no rainfall or little rainfall in a certain period. However, the no or little rainfall does not mean that the droughts must be occur, and the occurrence of droughts shows a certain lag in the different areas. This paper analyzes the characteristics of watershed lagged effects and human activities in Central Guizhou of China (CGC) by the Lagged Index (LI) and Landscape Index (LI) based on the land use data, rainfall and runoff data during the periods of 1971–2016.The results show that ①the influence difference of the same land use type on the lagged intensity was particularly significant(P < 0.001)in the different ages (1970s-2010s). Among them, it gradually increased for the impacts of the wood land, grass land and cultivated land on the lagged intensity with the increasing of ages, and reached the maximum in the 2000s, and reached the maximum in the 2000s, while it did not change significantly for the water land and construction land.②The impact of land use type transfer on watershed lagged effects is particularly significant (P < 0.001).Among them, it gradually increases for the wood land transfer with the prolongation of lagged periods, and reaches the maximum for the construction land transfer in the lag-1 period (Xt−1), and is not significant for the rest type transfer.③The impact differences of the principal components (Zs) on watershed lagged effects are particularly significant for the morphological characteristics of land use types in different lagged periods (Xt−0-Xt−3), and different ages (1970s-2010s), as well as the different time scales (1–12 months). Among them, it is the largest for the impact of grass land and water land on watershed lagged intensity, and gradually increases with the increasing of time scales (the maximum in the 9-month scale), followed by the wood land and cultivated land with the maximum in the 9- and 6- month scales, respectively. And it is the smallest for the construction land, and gradually increases with the increasing of time scales (the maximum in the 9-month scale).

Explicating Sediment Sources of the Catchment Upstream of the Miyun Reservoir in Beijing, China

As the only water drinking resource in Beijing, the Miyun Reservoir is still suffered over ten thousand tons of sediment input from its upper catchment. Explicating sediment sources of the catchment upstream of the reservoir is urgently required to further implement soil conservation measures. In this paper, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and Sediment Delivery (SEDD) models were combined to explicate the major sediment source of the catchment through exploring the spatial distributions of soil erosion and sediment delivery as well as their relations with land use and topography, and sediment source areas were then identified. The catchment average soil erosion intensity (SEI) of 4.08 t ha− 1 yr− 1 was two times the soil loss tolerance (T = 2.00 t ha− 1 yr− 1) of the study region. The values of cell sediment delivery ratio (SDR) showed a network distribution pattern, ranging from zero to unit, with an average of 1.65%. Cell specific sediment yield (SSY) presented a similar spatial pattern to SDR, ranging from 0 to 902 t ha− 1 yr− 1, with an average of 0.04 t ha− 1 yr− 1. Bare land suffered the highest SEI of 39.01 t ha− 1 yr− 1, followed by shrub land and orchard field. Nearly 70% of the sediment came from grass land. Farmland was the second sediment contributor. Grass land and farmland are the two major sediment source areas. Soil conservation practices should be further implemented on these lands, especially on the 3–5°slopes with elevations less than 500 m a.s.l.

Modeling and Prediction of Land Use Land Cover Change Dynamics Based on Land Change Modeler (LCM) in Nashe Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

Change of land use land cover (LULC) has been known globally as an essential driver of environmental change. Assessment of LULC change is the most precise method to comprehend the past land use, types of changes to be estimated, the forces and developments behind the changes. The aim of the study was to assess the temporal and spatial LULC dynamics of the past and to predict the future using Landsat images and LCM (Land Change Modeler) by considering the drivers of LULC dynamics. The research was conducted in Nashe watershed (Ethiopia) which is the main tributary of the Upper Blue Nile basin. The total watershed area is 94,578 ha. The Landsat imagery from 2019, 2005, and 1990 was used for evaluating and predicting the spatiotemporal distributions of LULC changes. The future LULC image prediction has been generated depending on the historical trends of LULC changes for the years 2035 and 2050. LCM integrated in TerrSet Geospatial Monitoring and Modeling System assimilated with MLP and CA-Markov chain have been used for monitoring, assessment of change, and future projections. Markov chain was used to generate transition probability matrices between LULC classes and cellular automata were used to predict the LULC map. Validation of the predicted LULC map of 2019 was conducted successfully with the actual LULC map. The validation accuracy was determined using the Kappa statistics and agreement/disagreement marks. The results of the historical LULC depicted that forest land, grass land, and range land are the most affected types of land use. The agricultural land in 1990 was 41,587.21 ha which increased to 57,868.95 ha in 2019 with an average growth rate of 39.15%. The forest land, range land, and grass land declined annually with rates of 48.38%, 19.58%, and 26.23%, respectively. The predicted LULC map shows that the forest cover will further degrade from 16.94% in 2019 to 8.07% in 2050, while agricultural land would be expanded to 69,021.20 ha and 69,264.44 ha in 2035 and 2050 from 57,868.95 ha in 2019. The findings of this investigation indicate an expected rapid change in LULC for the coming years. Converting the forest area, range land, and grass land into other land uses, especially to agricultural land, is the main LULC change in the future. Measures should be implemented to achieve rational use of agricultural land and the forest conversion needs to be well managed.

Assessment of Heavy Metal Contents in Three Different Land used Soils in Ohaji/Egbema Imo State, Nigeria

This assessment of some heavy metal contents in different land used soils in Ohaji/Egbema, Imo State was conducted between June, 2019 and May, 2020. Three land used soils namely; the grass land, continuously cropped and forest land were studied. Soil profile representations were established in each of the physiographic units and soil samples collected from the pedogenetic horizons for the analysis of some heavy metals like Lead (Pb), Copper (Cu), Manganese (Mn), Zinc (Zn), and Iron (Fe). The heavy metals observed in this study were Cu, Mn, Zn and Fe while Pb was not detected in this study. The results of this study showed that the grass land, continuously cropped and forest land had no Pb detected. The heavy metal contents(Cu, Mn, Zn and Fe) detected decreases with depth from 0.15cm depth to 60-90 cm depth in grass land and continuously cropped and forested land respectively. The occurrence of Fe was high in forested land which ranges from 7.8-6.3Mg/Kg with mean value of 7.0Mg/Kg than continuous cropped land and grass land with lower values. The forest land had high sodium content with mean value of 0.74 and high electrical conductivity with a mean 4.91 dsm-1. The results showed low to moderate heavy metal load in forest land and high to moderate load of heavy metals in the grass land and continuously cropped land.

Analysis of Watershed Characteristics and Spatial Soil Loss Estimation: A case Fincha Watershed, Western Ethiopia

Characteristics of watershed were not well investigated as global also in Fincha, Ethiopia. Fincha watershed is the most erosion prone area in the highlands of Ethiopia towards to Fincha dam.Therefore, the aim of this study was toanalysisFincha watershed characteristics based on land use/cover, soil type and slope classification and to identify soil erosionpronearea using Arc-GIS and Arc-SWAT model.Accordingly, nine major land use/covers were identified. Those were:- bush land, dominantly cultivated, moderately cultivated, irrigated land, grass land, water bodies, swamp area, urban and woodland open. From these most part of the catchment was under cultivation with 67.677% of the total area. In the same way, the major soil types identified were: - chromic luvisols, chromic vertisols, dystric cambisols, eutric cambisols, eutric nitosols, eutric regosols, haplic phaeozems, humic cambisols and water. Cambisols were covered the highest percentage, 39.98% area of the catchment.Subsequently, average annual values of estimated soil lossfrom the catchment was231.2 ton/ha.The identified prone erosion areas were sub-basins 1, 8, 11, 14, 17 and 20. It was very critical for environmentalists, hydrologists, agricultural experts, watershed managements and concerned decision makers for sustainable water resource projects and environmental protection system. Therefore, further detail investigation and appropriate watershed management practices should be given for these subbasins.

Dynamics of forage and land cover changes in Teltele district of Borana rangelands, southern Ethiopia: using geospatial and field survey data

Background The gradual conversion of rangelands into other land use types is one of the main challenges affecting the sustainable management of rangelands in Teltele. This study aimed to examine the changes, drivers, trends in land use and land cover (LULC), to determine the link between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and forage biomass and the associated impacts of forage biomass production dynamics on the Teltele rangelands in Southern Ethiopia. A Combination of remote sensing data, field interviews, discussion and observations data were used to examine the dynamics of LULC between 1992 and 2019 and forage biomass production. Results The result indicate that there is a marked increase in farm land (35.3%), bare land (13.8%) and shrub land (4.8%), while the reduction found in grass land (54.5%), wet land (69.3%) and forest land (10.5%). The larger change in land observed in both grassland and wetland part was observed during the period from 1995–2000 and 2015–2019, this is due to climate change impact (El-Niño) happened in Teltele rangeland during the year 1999 and 2016 respectively. The quantity of forage in different land use/cover types, grass land had the highest average amount of forage biomass of 2092.3 kg/ha, followed by wetland with 1231 kg/ha, forest land with 1191.3 kg/ha, shrub land with 180 kg/ha, agricultural land with 139.5 kg/ha and bare land with 58.1 kg/ha. Conclusions The significant linkage observed between NDVI and LULC change types (when a high NDVI value, the LULC changes also shows positive value or an increasing trend). In addition, NDVI value directly related to the greenness status of vegetation occurred on each LULC change types and its value directly linkage forage biomass production pattern with grassland land use types. 64.8% (grass land), 43.3% (agricultural land), 75.1% (forest land), 50.6% (shrub land), 80.5% (bare land) and 75.5% (wet land) more or higher dry biomass production in the wet season compared to the dry season.

Dynamics of forage and land cover changes in Teltele rangeland Southern, Ethiopia. Using geospatial and field survey data

Background: The gradual conversion of rangelands into other land use types is one of the main challenges affecting the sustainable management of rangelands in Teltele. This study aimed to examine the changes, drivers, trends in land use and land cover (LULC), to determine the link between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and forage biomass and the associated impacts of forage biomass production dynamics on the Teltele rangelands in Southern Ethiopia. A Combination of remote sensing data, field interviews, discussion and observations data were used to examine the dynamics of LULC between 1992-2019 and forage biomass production. Results: The result indicate that there is a marked increase in farm land (35.3%), bare land (13.8%) and shrub land (4.8%), while the reduction found in grass land (54.5%), wet land (69.3%) and forest land (10.5%). The larger change in land observed in both grassland and wetland part was observed during the period from 1995-2000 and 2015-2019, this is due to climate change impact (El-Niño) happened in Teltele rangeland during the year 1999 and 2016 respectively. The quantity of forage in different land use/cover types, grass land had the highest average amount of forage biomass of 2,092.3 kg/ha, followed by wetland with 1,231 kg/ha, forest land with 1,191.3 kg/ha, shrub land with 180kg/ha, agricultural land with 139.5 kg/ha and bare land with 58.1 kg/ha. Conclusions: The significant linkage observed between NDVI and LULC change types (when a high NDVI value, the LULC changes also shows positive value or an increasing trend). In addition, NDVI value directly related to the greenness status of vegetation occurred on each LULC change types and its value directly linkage forage biomass production pattern with grassland land use types. 64.8% (grass land), 43.3% (agricultural land), 75.1% (forest land), 50.6% (shrub land), 80.5% (bare land) and 75.5% (wet land) more or higher dry biomass production in the wet season compared to the dry season.

Dynamics of forage and land cover changes in Teltele rangeland Southern, Ethiopia. Using geospatial and field survey data

The gradual conversion of rangelands into other land use types is one of the main challenges affecting the sustainable management of rangelands in Teltele. This study aimed to examine the changes, drivers, trends in land use and land cover (LULC), to determine the link between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and forage biomass and the associated impacts of forage biomass production dynamics on the Teltele rangelands in Southern Ethiopia. A Combination of remote sensing data, field interviews, discussion and observations data were used to examine the dynamics of LULC between 1992–2019 and forage biomass production. The Results indicate that there is a marked increase in farm land (35.3%), bare land (13.8%) and shrub land (4.8%), while the reduction found in grass land (54.5%), wet land (69.3%) and forest land (10.5%). The larger change in land observed in both grassland and wetland part was observed during the period from 1995–2000 and 2015–2019, this is due to climate change impact (El-Niño) happened in Teltele rangeland during the year 1999 and 2016 respectively. The quantity of forage in different land use/cover types, grass land had the highest average amount of forage biomass of 2,092.3 kg/ha, followed by wetland with 1,231 kg/ha, forest land with 1,191.3 kg/ha, shrub land with 180 kg/ha, agricultural land with 139.5 kg/ha and bare land with 58.1 kg/ha. The significant linkage observed between NDVI and LULC change types (when a high NDVI value, the LULC changes also shows positive value or an increasing trend). In addition, NDVI value directly related to the greenness status of vegetation occurred on each LULC change types and its value directly linkage forage biomass production pattern with grassland land use types. 64.8% (grass land), 43.3% (agricultural land), 75.1% (forest land), 50.6% (shrub land), 80.5% (bare land) and 75.5% (wet land) more or higher dry biomass production in the wet season compared to the dry season.