Marginalized Two-Part Joint Modeling of Longitudinal Semi-Continuous Responses and Survival Data: With Application to Medical Costs

Non-negative continuous outcomes with a substantial number of zero values and incomplete longitudinal follow-up are quite common in medical costs data. It is thus critical to incorporate the potential dependence of survival status and longitudinal medical costs in joint modeling, where censorship is death-related. Despite the wide use of conventional two-part joint models (CTJMs) to capture zero-inflation, they are limited to conditional interpretations of the regression coefficients in the model’s continuous part. In this paper, we propose a marginalized two-part joint model (MTJM) to jointly analyze semi-continuous longitudinal costs data and survival data. We compare it to the conventional two-part joint model (CTJM) for handling marginal inferences about covariate effects on average costs. We conducted a series of simulation studies to evaluate the superior performance of the proposed MTJM over the CTJM. To illustrate the applicability of the MTJM, we applied the model to a set of real electronic health record (EHR) data recently collected in Iran. We found that the MTJM yielded a smaller standard error, root-mean-square error of estimates, and AIC value, with unbiased parameter estimates. With this MTJM, we identified a significant positive correlation between costs and survival, which was consistent with the simulation results.

A Test for Multiple Binary Endpoints with Continuous Latent Distribution in Clinical Trials

In clinical trials, two or more binary responses obtained by dichotomizing continuous responses are often employed as multiple primary endpoints. Testing procedures for multiple binary variables with latent distribution have not yet been adequately discussed. Based on the association measure among latent variables, we provide a statistic for testing the superiority of at least one binary endpoint. In addition, we propose a testing procedure with a framework in which the trial efficacy is confirmed only when there is superiority of at least one endpoint and non-inferiority of the remaining endpoints. The performance of the proposed procedure is evaluated through simulations.

Conclusion

The last chapter looks at the research and policy implications of the theory of secessionism sketched in this book. The chapter argues that nationalist movements will continue to be enduring components of some liberal-democratic states. Hence, states should consider these movements as democratic actors whose claims require continuous responses rather than as troublemakers bringing problems that should be solved once and for all. The chapter also comes back to the cases examined in the book in order to analyse the impact of the state’s approach to autonomy for the internal national community and for the multinational country as a whole, and to discuss the potential consequences of the implementation of one or the other form of autonomy for unity.

Gender, Candidate Emotional Expression, and Voter Reactions During Televised Debates

Voters evaluate politicians not just by what they say, but also how they say it, via facial displays of emotions and vocal pitch. Candidate characteristics can shape how leaders use—and how voters react to—nonverbal cues. Drawing on role congruity expectations, we study how the use of and reactions to facial, vocal, and textual communication in political debates varies by candidate gender. Relying on full-length videos of four German federal election debates (2005–2017) and a minor party debate, we use video, audio, and text data to measure candidate facial displays of emotion, vocal pitch, and speech sentiment. Consistent with our expectations, Angela Merkel expresses less anger than her male opponents, but she is just as emotive in other respects. Combining these measures of emotional expression with continuous responses recorded by live audiences, we find that voters punish Merkel for anger displays and reward her happiness and general emotional displays.

A Discrete Density Approach to Bayesian Quantile and Expectile Regression with Discrete Responses

For decades, regression models beyond the mean for continuous responses have attracted great attention in the literature. These models typically include quantile regression and expectile regression. But there is little research on these regression models for discrete responses, particularly from a Bayesian perspective. By forming the likelihood function based on suitable discrete probability mass functions, this paper introduces a discrete density approach for Bayesian inference of these regression models with discrete responses. Bayesian quantile regression for discrete responses is first developed, and then this method is extended to Bayesian expectile regression for discrete responses. The posterior distribution under this approach is shown not only coherent irrespective of the true distribution of the response, but also proper with regarding to improper priors for the unknown model parameters. The performance of the method is evaluated via extensive Monte Carlo simulation studies and one real data analysis.

Central tendency biases must be accounted for to consistently capture Bayesian cue combination in continuous response data

Observers in perceptual tasks are often reported to combine multiple sensory cues in a weighted average that improves precision—in some studies, approaching statistically optimal (Bayesian) weighting, but in others departing from optimality, or not benefitting from combined cues at all. To correctly conclude which combination rules observers use, it is crucial to have accurate measures of their sensory precision and cue weighting. Here, we present a new approach for accurately recovering these parameters in perceptual tasks with continuous responses. Continuous responses have many advantages, but are susceptible to a central tendency bias, where responses are biased towards the central stimulus value. We show that such biases lead to inaccuracies in estimating both precision gains and cue weightings, two key measures used to assess sensory cue combination. We introduce a method that estimates sensory precision by regressing continuous responses on targets and dividing the variance of the residuals by the squared slope of the regression line, “correcting-out” the error introduced by the central bias and increasing statistical power. We also suggest a complementary analysis that recovers the sensory cue weights. Using both simulations and empirical data, we show that the proposed methods can accurately estimate sensory precision and cue weightings in the presence of central tendency biases. We conclude that central tendency biases should be (and can easily be) accounted for to consistently capture Bayesian cue combination in continuous response data.

Dynamics of the Auditory Continuity Illusion

Illusions give intriguing insights into perceptual and neural dynamics. In the auditory continuity illusion, two brief tones separated by a silent gap may be heard as one continuous tone if a noise burst with appropriate characteristics fills the gap. This illusion probes the conditions under which listeners link related sounds across time and maintain perceptual continuity in the face of sudden changes in sound mixtures. Conceptual explanations of this illusion have been proposed, but its neural basis is still being investigated. In this work we provide a dynamical systems framework, grounded in principles of neural dynamics, to explain the continuity illusion. We construct an idealized firing rate model of a neural population and analyze the conditions under which firing rate responses persist during the interruption between the two tones. First, we show that sustained inputs and hysteresis dynamics (a mismatch between tone levels needed to activate and inactivate the population) can produce continuous responses. Second, we show that transient inputs and bistable dynamics (coexistence of two stable firing rate levels) can also produce continuous responses. Finally, we combine these input types together to obtain neural dynamics consistent with two requirements for the continuity illusion as articulated in a well-known theory of auditory scene analysis: responses persist through the noise-filled gap if noise provides sufficient evidence that the tone continues and if there is no evidence of discontinuities between the tones and noise. By grounding these notions in a quantitative model that incorporates elements of neural circuits (recurrent excitation, and mutual inhibition, specifically), we identify plausible mechanisms for the continuity illusion. Our findings can help guide future studies of neural correlates of this illusion and inform development of more biophysically-based models of the auditory continuity illusion.

Central tendency biases must be accounted for to consistently capture Bayesian cue combination in continuous response data

Observers in perceptual tasks are often reported to combine multiple sensory cues in a weighted average that improves precision – in some studies, approaching statistically-optimal (Bayesian) weighting, but in others departing from optimality, or not benefitting from combined cues at all. To correctly conclude which combination rules observers use, it is crucial to have accurate measures of their sensory precision and cue weighting. Here, we present a new approach for accurately recovering these parameters in perceptual tasks with continuous responses. Continuous responses have many advantages, but are susceptible to a central tendency bias, where responses are biased towards the central stimulus value. We show such biases lead to inaccuracies in estimating both precision gains and cue weightings, two key measures used to assess sensory cue combination. We introduce a method that estimates sensory precision by regressing continuous responses on targets and dividing the variance of the residuals by the squared slope of the regression line, “correcting-out” the error introduced by the central bias and increasing statistical power. We also suggest a complementary analysis that recovers the sensory cue weights. Using both simulations and empirical data, we show that the proposed methods can accurately estimate sensory precision and cue weightings in the presence of central tendency biases. We conclude that central tendency biases should be (and can easily be) accounted for to consistently capture Bayesian cue combination in continuous response data.

A Multidimensional Item Response Theory Model for Continuous and Graded Responses With Error in Persons and Items

Item response theory “dual” models (DMs) in which both items and individuals are viewed as sources of differential measurement error so far have been proposed only for unidimensional measures. This article proposes two multidimensional extensions of existing DMs: the M-DTCRM (dual Thurstonian continuous response model), intended for (approximately) continuous responses, and the M-DTGRM (dual Thurstonian graded response model), intended for ordered-categorical responses (including binary). A rationale for the extension to the multiple-content-dimensions case, which is based on the concept of the multidimensional location index, is first proposed and discussed. Then, the models are described using both the factor-analytic and the item response theory parameterizations. Procedures for (a) calibrating the items, (b) scoring individuals, (c) assessing model appropriateness, and (d) assessing measurement precision are finally discussed. The simulation results suggest that the proposal is quite feasible, and an illustrative example based on personality data is also provided. The proposals are submitted to be of particular interest for the case of multidimensional questionnaires in which the number of items per scale would not be enough for arriving at stable estimates if the existing unidimensional DMs were fitted on a separate-scale basis.