The Role of Predictive Models in the Assessment of the Poor Outcomes in Pediatric Acute Liver Failure

Objectives: In children, acute liver failure (ALF) is a severe condition with high mortality. As some patients need liver transplantation (LT), it is essential to predict the fatal evolution and to refer them early for LT if needed. Our study aimed to evaluate the prognostic criteria and scores for assessing the outcome in children with ALF. Methods: Data of 161 children with ALF (54.66% female, mean age 7.66 ± 6.18 years) were analyzed based on final evolution (32.91% with fatal evolution or LT) and etiology. We calculated on the first day of hospitalization the PELD score (109 children), MELD, and MELD-Na score (52 children), and King’s College Criteria (KCC) for all patients. The Nazer prognostic index and Wilson index for predicting mortality were calculated for nine patients with ALF in Wilson’s disease (WD). Results: PELD, MELD, and MELD-Na scores were significantly higher in patients with fatal evolution (21.04 ± 13.28 vs. 13.99 ± 10.07, p = 0.0023; 36.20 ± 19.51 vs. 20.08 ± 8.57, p < 0.0001; and 33.07 ± 8.29 vs. 20.08 ± 8.47, p < 0.0001, respectively). Moreover, age, bilirubin, albumin, INR, and hemoglobin significantly differed in children with fatal evolution. Function to etiology, PELD, MELD, MELD-Na, and KCC accurately predicted fatal evolution in toxic ALF (25.33 vs. 9.90, p = 0.0032; 37.29 vs. 18.79, p < 0.0001; 34.29 vs. 19.24, p = 0.0002, respectively; with positive predicting value 100%, negative predicting value 88.52%, and accuracy 89.23% for King’s College criteria). The Wilson index for predicting mortality had an excellent predictive strength (100% sensibility and specificity), better than the Nazer prognostic index. Conclusions: Prognostic scores may be used to predict the fatal evolution of ALF in children in correlation with other parameters or criteria. Early estimation of the outcome of ALF is essential, mainly in countries where emergency LT is problematic, as the transfer to a specialized center could be delayed, affecting survival chances.

Comparison of Different Approaches to Operationalize Fried’s Phenotypic Frailty in the NuAge Cohort

Many operationalization approaches were proposed to identify frailty in older adults. The common use of Fried’s original criteria or other cut-offs based on cohort distribution may not apply in every cohort leading to potential bias in the identification of frail individuals. We thus aimed to apply different Fried’s phenotypic frailty operationalization approaches in the Quebec NuAge cohort of generally healthy community-dwelling older adults (n=1,753; aged 67-84 years), and longitudinally compare prevalence, incidence and predictive strength on outcomes, such as functional autonomy, falls, hospitalization and mortality. Significant variability in prevalence, classification agreement and predictive strengths were observed between approaches, notably using different types of distribution cut-offs, variables, or ways to handle missing data. This strategy helped us to prioritize a specific Fried’s phenotypic frailty operationalization in NuAge, which could then be used in secondary research projects aiming to study determinants of Fried’s phenotypic frailty and its role in health outcomes.

Loneliness Before and During the Covid-19 Pandemic: Associations with Chronic Illnesses and Relationship Quality

While self-reported loneliness generally declines after age 65, the likelihood of experiencing chronic illnesses increases. During the Covid-19 pandemic, social isolation measures have changed the social context of many people. We address three research questions: 1) What is the predictive strength of chronic illnesses, relationship quality, and their interaction on loneliness? 2) Has Covid-19 altered experienced loneliness relative to pre-pandemic? 3) Was loneliness during Covid-19 associated with the number of prior chronic illnesses in 2016? To answer these questions, we have analyzed data from participants in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) included in the early 2020 release who also completed the 2016 wave (N = 1106). On average, in 2016, these participants were age 74.64 (SD = 6.66) and reported 2.57 (SD = 1.39) chronic illnesses. In 2016, unadjusted multiple regression models revealed that chronic illnesses (β = .38) and relationship quality (β = -.41) were associated with loneliness (R2 = .28). When covariates were added, these values were attenuated but remained statistically significant. In 2020 during the pandemic, 8% of these participants reported they often felt lonely and 26% reported feeling lonelier since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. People who had more chronic illnesses in 2016 reported feeling lonelier in 2020 as did people whose relationships were poorer quality (p &lt; .05). Further analyses with final data from HRS are needed to confirm these trends. These findings highlight the importance of having longitudinal information to identify individuals at high risk and most likely to benefit from interventions.

The “Constitutive Relevance of Models” (CRoM) Test: A Tool for Transferring Constructs and Virtues between Psychological and Anthropological Theories of Ritual

This paper introduces a tool designed to mitigate a longstanding challenge to developing social anthropological theories of ritual – how to generate enough comparable case studies for rigorously testing the predictive strength and generalizability of the theory under scrutiny. Our “constitutive relevance of models” (CRoM) test identifies structural continuities between anthropological and psychological theoretical models of ritual phenomena that would justify sharing some analytical tools between models. With this test, anthropologists can in certain cases draw on a psychological theory construct’s superior empirical tractability to more efficiently identify instances of ritual phenomena that are suitable for developing and testing their own anthropological models. To demonstrate, we apply a CRoM test to validate the use of a construct developed under a psychological theory of ritual, Lawson and McCauley’s “ritual form hypothesis,” to search for case studies suitable for assessing the theoretical claims that anthropologist Roy Rappaport made for “highly sacred” rituals.

New Donors, New Goals? Altruism, Self-Interest, and Domestic Political Support in Development Cooperation in Latin America

ABSTRACTThe literature on aid allocation shows that many factors influence donors’ decision to provide aid. However, our knowledge about foreign aid allocation is based on traditional foreign aid, from developed to developing countries, and many assumptions of these theories do not hold when applied to southern donors. This article argues that south-south development cooperation (SSDC) can be explained by the strength of development cooperation’s domestic allies and foes. Specifically, it identifies civil society organizations as allies of SSDC and nationalist groups as opponents of SSDC. By using for the first time data on SSDC activities in Latin America, this article shows the predictive strength of a liberal domestic politics approach in comparison to the predictive power of alternative explanations. The results speak to scholars of both traditional foreign aid and south-south development cooperation in highlighting the limits of traditional theories of foreign aid motivations.

Advancing the psychology of social class with large-scale replications in four countries

As the topic of inequalities has gained attention in the past decade, social scientists have developed theoretical frameworks to understand how social class shapes the way individuals think, feel, and behave. These frameworks suggest that lower-class contexts nurture psychological and behavioral tendencies oriented toward others and the environment (interdependence, contextualism), whereas higher-class contexts nurture tendencies oriented toward the self (independence, solipsism). However, empirical research on social class faces obstacles that limit the generalizability of extant findings (small sample sizes, nondiverse convenience samples, measurement flexibility). We propose a large-scale (N = 36,000) and theoretically comprehensive replication of 43 key effects (from 22 studies) of social class on the self, relationships, emotions, cognition, social behavior, and decision-making. The project will also contribute to refining theoretical models by testing the predictive strength of widely (and flexibly) used measures of social class and individual, social, and structural moderators of the effects of social class.

The meta-analyses of deliberate practice underestimate the effect size because they neglect the core characteristic of individualization—an analysis and empirical evidence

Influential meta-analyses have concluded that only a small to medium proportion of variance in performance can be explained by deliberate practice. We argue that the authors have neglected the most important characteristic of deliberate practice: individualization of practice. Many of the analyzed effect sizes derived from measures that did not assess individualized practice and, therefore, should not have been included in meta-analyses of deliberate practice. We present empirical evidence which suggests that the level of individualization and quality of practice (indicated by didactic educational capital) substantially influences the predictive strength of practice measures. In our study of 178 chess players, we found that at a high level of individualization and quality of practice, the effect size of structured practice was more than three times higher than that found at the average level. Our theoretical analysis, along with empirical results, support the claim that the explanatory power of deliberate practice has been considerably underestimated in the meta-analyses. The question of how important deliberate practice is for individual differences in performance remains an open question.

Prediction of Physics Lesson Learning Level by Students’ Characteristics and Teaching-Learning Process

The aim of this study is to determine the predictive strength of the students’ characteristics and their teaching-learning process on the physics course learning level. The variables were also examined according to the academic achievement levels. The study is a descriptive study in survey model. Purposive sampling method was used in the formation of the study group, and 621 ninth grade students were selected for the study group. Cognitive Entry Behaviors (CEB) test, Academic Self-Concept (ASC) scale, Perception of Teaching Service Adequacy (PTSA) scale, Time Allotted to Learning (TAL) form and Learning Level (LL) test were used to collect the data. One-way variance, simple linear regression, and stepwise regression technique were used in the data analysis. The results of the study showed that the predictive strength of the variables examined about the student and the teaching-learning process was significant. The variability in the learning level is 59.9% in CEB, 18.1% in ASC, and 17.1% in PTSA. The relationship between the individual time allocated to learning and the learning level is negative, and has the power to explain the variability in learning level by 2.9%. All variables have the power to explain the variability in learning level by 62.7% together. One of the most important results of this study is that the magnitude of the predictive power of cognitive entry behaviors on the learning level has been revealed. It is thought that the results of the study will contribute to the literature aimed at increasing the learning level of the physics course.

Predictive Strength of Contextual and Personal Variables in Soccer Players’ Goal Orientations

Psychological variables, such as perceived motivational climate, goal orientation, self-determined motivation, and personality, have an influence on sports success performance. This study aimed to examine the relationships among a set of psychological variables (perceived motivational climate, goal orientation, self-determined motivation, and personality) in male and female footballers. Participants were 167 footballers (106 male, 61 female), aged 12 to 26, competing with clubs in the Spanish Football League. They all took four questionnaires aimed at evaluating motivational climate, goal orientations, self-determined motivation, and personality. The analyses of correlation and regression showed statistically significant relations among the variables. Neuroticism and psychoticism negatively relate to mastery motivational climate, the best predictor of self-determined motivation. It was concluded that contextual variables carry more weight in predicting goal orientations and self-determined motivation among participant footballers.

Effectiveness of Type of Feedback and Frequency on Digital Game-Based L2 Vocabulary Acquisition

The frequency of word exposure in teaching materials, along with corrective feedback, has often been identified as a powerful variable in the learning of vocabulary in a foreign language. The effect of the number of times an action is presented as accurate in digital game-based language learning scenarios (i.e., knowledge of correct response [KCR] feedback) however remains under-investigated. This study aims to analyse the learning of L2 mobile operating system terminology by a group of students of English as a foreign language by using the data collected by the video game The Conference Interpreter in order to identify the predictive strength of term frequency (times a term is shown), KCR feedback (times a correct answer is provided), and corrective feedback (times a term is shown as incorrect) regarding short and long-term L2 vocabulary learning. The regression analysis performed showed that the factor ‘KCR feedback' may be a positive predictor of short-term vocabulary learning, whereas the other factors seemed to have no statistical effect at any significant level.