Decision-support model to explore the feasibility of using translocation to restore a woodland caribou population in Pukaskwa National Park, Canada

The distribution and abundance of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) have declined dramatically in the past century. Without intervention the most southern population of caribou in eastern North America is expected to disappear within 20 years. Although translocations have reintroduced and reinforced some populations, approximately half of caribou translocation efforts fail. Translocations are resource intensive and risky, and multiple interrelated factors must be considered to assess their potential for success. Structured decision-making tools, such as Bayesian belief networks, provide objective methods to assess different wildlife management scenarios by identifying the key components and relationships in an ecosystem. They can also catalyze dialogue with stakeholders and provide a record of the complex thought processes used in reaching a decision. We developed a Bayesian belief network for a proposed translocation of woodland caribou into a national park on the northeastern coast of Lake Superior, Ontario, Canada. We tested scenarios with favourable (e.g., good physical condition of adult caribou) and unfavourable (e.g., high predator densities) conditions with low, medium, and high numbers of translocated caribou. Under the current conditions at Pukaskwa National Park, augmenting the caribou population is unlikely to recover the species unless wolf densities remain low (<5.5/1000 km2) or if more than 300 animals could be translocated.

Demographic Patterns and Limitation of Grey Wolves, Canis lupus, in and Near Pukaskwa National Park, Ontario

In response to concern regarding the growth and long-term viability of the wolf population in and near Pukaskwa National Park, a study of demographic patterns and limitation of radio-collared wolves (Canis lupus) was completed between 1994 and 1998. The mean annual finite rate of increase (0.96) suggested that population growth of wolves was limited and declining slightly. Small pack sizes, high cumulative mortality, and low reproductive success also suggested a declining population. Two limiting factors, ungulate biomass and human-caused mortality, were examined to determine the importance of each in limiting the population growth of wolves. Ungulate biomass was involved because occurrence of natural-caused mortality was high (9 of 17 wolves) compared with other studies. In addition, consumption rates were low and similar to other studies where starvation and other signs of malnutrition were noted. Further, Moose densities in the study area were low to moderate and below thresholds indicating nutritional stress for wolves. Occurrence of human-caused mortality was high (8 of 17 wolves) suggesting that it was also an important limiting factor, particularly given the low availability of ungulate biomass and reproduction noted in this study. Based on present demographic patterns, ungulate biomass, and human-caused mortality, the wolf population likely will remain at present low densities or continue to decline.