Modeling the first wave of Covid-19 pandemic in the Republic of Cyprus

We present different data analytic methodologies that have been applied in order to understand the evolution of the first wave of the Coronavirus disease 2019 in the Republic of Cyprus and the effect of different intervention measures that have been taken by the government. Change point detection has been used in order to estimate the number and locations of changes in the behaviour of the collected data. Count time series methods have been employed to provide short term projections and a number of various compartmental models have been fitted to the data providing with long term projections on the pandemic’s evolution and allowing for the estimation of the effective reproduction number.

Strategi Diponegoro dalam menggerakkan semangat jihad masyarakat Islam di Jawa

One of the wars that was enough to make the Netherlands Indies Government change its war strategy and tactics to deal with resistance in Java, the Diponegoro War or often known as the Java War. This war involved almost all of the Land of Java, especially Central Java and East Java. The Participation of many Javanese people can’t be separated from the role of Prince Diponegoro in winning the hegemony over the Javanese people, especially people who embrance Islam resulting in a war within five years. The method used in this research is library research. The result of this research is that prince Diponegoro conveyed his ideas, ideas and knowledge to the public through the Islamic community, especially from the students, to call for the spirit of Jihad fi Sabilillah. The war banner he carried was also based on Islamic laws and wanted to establish an Islamic state (Balad al Islam). Salah satu perang yang cukup membuat pemerintah Hindia Belanda merubah strategi dan taktik untuk menghadapi perlawanan di Jawa, Perang Diponegoro atau sering dikenal dengan Perang Jawa. Perang ini melibatkan hampir seluruh Tanah Jawa terutama Jawa Tengah dan Jawa Timur. Ikut andilnya masyarakat Jawa yang banyak tidak lepas dari peran Pangeran Diponegoro dalam memenangkan Hegemoni atas masyarakat Jawa, terutama masyarakat yang memeluk agama Islam sehingga mengakibatkan perang dalam kurun waktu lima tahun. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah library research. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah pangeran Diponegoro menyampaikan sebuah gagasan, ide dan pengetahuannya kepada masyarakat melalui komunitas Islam, terutama dari kalangan santri untuk menyerukan semangat Jihad fi Sabilillah. Panji perang yang diusungnya pun juga berlandaskan pada hukum-hukum Islam dan ingin mendirikann suatu negara Islam (Balad al Islam).

Populism and Protest

The essay considers populism in the present moment in relation to Black Lives Matter as a popular protest movement. Popular protest movements demand that government change; populism in the present moment seeks to act extra-governmentally, and to this end relies on violence in the face of peace protest movement. This violence demonstrates the white patriarchalism of contemporary populism. I argue that peaceful, popular protest is an important tool to resist white patriarchal populist authoritarianism.

The Constitutional Reform of Local Self-Government: The Unity of Public Government as a New Universal Principle of Arranging of Local Self-Government

The article reviews the influence of Law of the Russian Federation on the Amendment to the Constitution of the Russian Federation No. 1-ФКЗ of March 14, 2020, On the Improvement of the Regulation of Some Issues of the Organization and Functioning of Public Government on the constitutional model of local self-government. The author studies the opportunities for building of unified public government and the unity of public government as a new universal principle of arranging of local self-government. The paper offers forecasts concerning further development of local self-government, change in the status of its agencies.

The asymmetric effects of 20 years of tariff reforms on Egyptian workers

After more than two decades of trade liberalization, faced with deep structural problems which were exacerbated by the 2008 financial crisis and culminated in the 2011 Spring Revolution and government change, in 2016 Egypt started to protect some sectors from foreign competition. This paper assesses how tariff reforms during the 1998–2018 period affected the Egyptian labour market by focusing on real wages and job stability (i.e. having a permanent position). The empirical analysis is carried out on worker-level data from the available four waves of Egyptian Labour Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), including the recently released 2018 wave. We find that higher tariff protection tends to worsen labour market conditions, both lowering real wages and decreasing the probability of finding a stable job. Furthermore, tariff changes show remarkable asymmetries. There is a negative and significant correlation between tariffs increases and real wages, while the positive impact of tariff reductions turns out to be negligible and insignificant. Our findings support the view that in Egypt protectionism hampered working conditions, contributing to inequality, while liberalizations did not improve nor deteriorate them.

The Crime of Unconstitutional Change of Government and Popular Uprisings in Africa: Issues and Challenges

Several African states have experienced military coups as a form of government change, undermining the constitutional change of governments, human rights and threats to regional peace and security in Africa. This article examines the crime of unconstitutional change of government in Africa. It considers the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Criminal Law section of the African Court of Justice and Human and Peoples’ Rights over the crime of unconstitutional change of government. It then examines the scope of the crime of unconstitutional change of government and whether there is a right to peaceful rebellion against undemocratic governments in Africa. It also considers the impact of immunity granted to African heads of state on the prosecution of the crime of unconstitutional change of government. It further explores whether the imposition of the death penalty by some domestic courts for the crime of unconstitutional change of government is compatible with African states’ international human rights obligations under the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights and other human rights instruments. This is followed by a consideration of the challenge of providing funds for the benefit of victims of crimes including unconstitutional changes of government.

Corruption and the Network Structure of Public Contracting Markets across Government Change

Corruption is thought to affect developed economies to a greater degree than developing countries. However, given our limited capacity to detect corruption, it may simply be harder to detect it in countries with stronger institutions. This article sets out to address this measurement challenge and to offer a tailored approach to one particular type of corruption: high-level corruption in government contracting. We describe a recently developed method to score procurement contracts for corruption risk. Then, using micro-level data from Hungary and the Czech Republic we analyze how corruption can distort public procurement markets, mapped as networks of buyers and suppliers. Proxying for corruption using a composite index of red flags derived from contract awards, we find that public sector buyers with high corruption risk have sparser network neighborhoods, meaning that they contract with fewer suppliers than expected. We interpret our results as evidence that corruption in procurement markets is fundamentally about the exclusion of non-favored firms. Political change has a significant effect on corrupt relationships: High corruption risk buyers with sparse neighborhoods rewire their contracting relationships roughly 20–40% more extensively than other buyers across years with government turnover. The article demonstrates how the political organization of corruption distorts market competition in OECD countries.

GROWTH AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY: A THEORETICAL APPROACH WITH MACRO-DYNAMIC SIMULATION

This work is tending to use theoretical model (economic dynamic model), trying to explain the effect that Political Instability can have on the economic growth. Political instability is considered by economists as a serious issue, detrimental to economic performance. While talking about political unrest, we then think about African countries. Political instability in African countries can therefore be caused by internal and external factors. Coming from a country (Central African Republic) that suffers a lot from Political Instability, this analysis will help to contribute to the stability in my country and in all countries around the world. This work shows the leverage of Political Instability the rate of change in the capital stock per unit of effective labor which is the discrepancy between the actual investment per unit of effective labor ( and the break-even investment , used to keep the capital stock stable. By including the propensity of government change , the result leads to a fall of capital change rate with a subsequent negative effect on the economic growth. This because with a high propensity of government change (c* > 0), the investment incentive will fade leading to a downward tendency of actual investment.

The Long Transition

Herfkens and Short left their cabinet positions in 2002–3, the former because of a government change, the latter over disagreement with the government’s policy in the Iraq War. But Johnson stayed in office until 2005 and Wieczorek-Zeul until 2009, pushing for implementation of the U4 agenda in different contexts and with different partners. They continued to collaborate with each other, the UK, and the Nordics, on specific issues. Thus, while a systemic and fully fledged U4 cooperation never re-emerged at the political and ministerial level, there was a transition over time. The U4 did not disappear from the international scene as much as they faded away as a ministerial group. This chapter reviews this transition roughly over the period 2003–8, discussing key aspects of international cooperation for development: the Rome–Paris–Accra accords on Aid Effectiveness, the UN 2005 Millennium Development Goals Review, the Doha Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations; changes in HIPC, the Doha Review Conference on Financing for Development, and other aspects of international cooperation over this period.

The History of Education System and Authority in Israel from the Ottoman period to our days

During the short history of its existence, even before the state of Israel was born, the Education system in the area known today as Israel has constantly faced the challenge of providing equal, or at least somewhat state-controlled curriculum, budgeting and education in general. During the major periods of government change, various religious, socioeconomic and political groups had tried to reshape the education system to match their needs, creating schools, programs and funding plans accordingly. However, despite the evolving legislation and awareness, the Israeli Education System is heavily segregated based on religion, origins, and other factors. Whole populations are exempted by choice, or by lack of lobbying, while the main system remains to bring equity to a highly heterogenic school system. This article will show the challenges, stratification changes and shifts the system has faced on the way to provide quality education to the children of Israeli state.