The Effect of Information Formats and Incidental Affect on Prior and Posterior Probability Judgments

Background. Interpreting medical test results involves judging probabilities, including making Bayesian inferences such as judging the positive and negative predictive values. Although prior work has shown that experience formats (e.g., slide shows of representative patient cases) produce more accurate Bayesian inferences than description formats (e.g., verbal statistical summaries), there are disadvantages of using the experience format for real-world medical decision making that may be solved by presenting relevant information in a 2 × 2 table format. Furthermore, medical decisions are often made in stressful contexts, yet little is known about the influence of acute stress on the accuracy of Bayesian inferences. This study aimed to a) replicate the description-experience format effect on probabilistic judgments; b) examine judgment accuracy across description, experience, and a new 2 × 2 table format; and c) assess the effect of acute stress on probability judgments. Method. The study employed a 2 (stress condition) × 3 (format) factorial between-subjects design. Participants ( N = 165) completed a Bayesian inference task in which information about a medical screening test was presented in 1 of 3 formats (description, experience, 2 × 2 table), following a laboratory stress induction or a no-stress control condition. Results. Overall, the 2 × 2 table format produced the most accurate probability judgments, including Bayesian inferences, compared with the description and experience formats. Stress had no effect on judgment accuracy. Discussion. Given its accuracy and practicality, a 2 × 2 table may be better suited than description or experience formats for communicating probabilistic information in medical contexts.

Cultivating credibility with probability words and numbers

Recent research suggests that communicating probabilities numerically rather than verbally benefits forecasters’ credibility. In two experiments, we tested the reproducibility of this communication-format effect. The effect was replicated under comparable conditions (low probability, inaccurate forecasts), but it was reversed for low-probability accurate forecasts and eliminated for high-probability forecasts. Experiment 2 further showed that verbal probabilities convey implicit recommendations more clearly than probability information, whereas numeric probabilities do the opposite. Descriptively, the findings indicate that the effect of probability words versus numbers on credibility depends on how these formats convey directionality differently, how directionality implies recommendations even when none are explicitly given, and how such recommendations correspond with outcomes. Prescriptively, we propose that experts distinguish forecasts from advice, using numeric probabilities for the former and well-reasoned arguments for the latter.

Affect Heuristic and Format Effect in Risk Perception

The affect heuristic can evoke a format effect so that different ways of expressing the level of likelihood of an event happening can cause different perceptions of the level of risk. We conducted 3 studies to test the hypothesis that a format effect is not always present at every level of probability, and even when a format effect occurs, it depends on risk level and emotion. In Study 1, the risk of a flood threatening participants' homes (familiar risk) regardless of change in emotion, occurred only at a 5% probability level. In Study 2, when facing an unfamiliar risk (being infected by Chikungunya fever), regardless of change in emotion, a format effect occurred at the level of 5% probability only when emotion was positive. In Study 3, a format effect occurred at a 5% probability level when prior emotion expectation was positive and risk consequences were emphasized. We can conclude that the format effect depends on changes in risk level and emotions.

Enhancing Critical Reflection of Students During a Clinical Internship Using the Self-S.O.A.P. Note

Background and Purpose: Critical reflection is a skill all physical therapists need to develop to be successful in professional practice. Scholars have defined the varied processes, purposes and outcomes of reflection. Journaling is one technique for encouraging the process of critical reflection. While journaling can take many forms, a structured journal format with clear instructions and ongoing feedback has been found to be most successful in maintaining student engagement. Method Description and Evaluation: A journal structured in a S.O.A.P. note format was implemented as a weekly assignment during a clinical education experience. Students were required to submit the weekly self-S.O.A.P. note to the academic coordinator of clinical education (ACCE). The ACCE provided students with occasional feedback on their notes to encourage further reflection. Perceptions of the benefits and pitfalls of the activity were gathered through means of a focus group interview. Outcomes: The four students in the focus group identified several benefits which can be grouped into four categories relating to the clarity of format, effect of feedback, support of summative evaluations and self-recognition of progress. Discussion and Conclusions: Self-S.O.A.P. notes provide a familiar structure to assist students in the process of critical reflection. Further research is needed to determine the level of reflection that is occurring, the effect of feedback on the students’ critical reflection, and if a relationship exists between high levels of critical reflection and high summative evaluation ratings.