scenario testing
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2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 319-322
Author(s):  
Norbert Löwa ◽  
Rebecca Hoffmann ◽  
Dirk Gutkelch ◽  
Olaf Kosch ◽  
Silvio Dutz ◽  
...  

Abstract Phantoms are essential tools for the development and characterization of Magnetic Particle Imaging (MPI), an imaging technique that can quantitatively map the spatial distribution of magnetic nanoparticles (MNP). The objective of this study was to develop and validate a modular MPI phantom kit with high versatility for platform-independent quality assurance and the assembling of defined geometries in MPI. It was shown that the developed MPI phantom kit can be used for both application scenario testing and quality assurance in MPI which provides the basis for future reference phantoms to directly compare existing scanners within the MPI community.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakob Peintner ◽  
Maikol Funk Drechsler ◽  
Fabio Reway ◽  
Georg Seifert ◽  
Werner Huber ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Agnel Cyriac Philip ◽  
Egils Ginters ◽  
Dilara Basdogan

The oil and gas industry is the eighth largest in the world. Its market size is expected to grow from USD 4.6 trillion in 2020 to USD 5.9 trillion in 2021, and in 2025 it will reach USD 7.4 trillion. The oil and gas industry is the backbone of today’s economy, and it is difficult to imagine that the share of the industry’s influence in world economy could decrease soon. Oil and gas production and supply chains pose significant environmental risks. Various methods are used to assess the risks of the industry's impact on the environment. In most cases, they are labor-intensive and non-interactive, which reduces the effectiveness of scenario testing. The article dealt with a new approach for analyzing different hazard risk scenarios based on Bayesian acyclic networks, looking at the supply chain as a socio-technical system, the sustainability of which is determined by the systemic impact on three pillars - business, society and environment. This article focuses on the environmental component. The article aims at introduction the audience, i.e., investors, business leaders and territorial development policy planners, the use of the method for assessing the systemic environmental risks of supply chains in the oil and gas industry.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheila Saia ◽  
Natalie Nelson ◽  
Sierra Young ◽  
Stanton Parham ◽  
Micah Vandegrift

Growing interest in data-driven, decision-support tools across the life sciences and physical sciences has motivated development of web applications, also known as web apps. Web apps can help disseminate research findings and present research outputs in ways that are more accessible and meaningful to the general public--from individuals, to governments, to companies. Specifically, web apps enable exploration of scenario testing and policy analysis (i.e., to answer “what if?”) as well as co-evolution of scientific and public knowledge. However, the majority of researchers developing web apps receive little formal training or technical guidance on how to develop and evaluate the effectiveness of their web-based decision support tools. Take some of us for example. We (Saia and Nelson) are agricultural and environmental engineers with little experience in web app development, but we are interested in creating web apps to support sustainable aquaculture production in the Southeast. We had user (i.e., shellfish growers) interest, a goal in mind (i.e., develop a new forecast product and decision-support tool for shellfish aquaculturalists), and received funding to support this work. Yet, we experienced several unexpected hurdles from the start of our project that ended up being fairly common hiccups to the seasoned web app developers among us (Young, Parham). As a result, we share the following Ten Simple Rules, which highlight take home messages, including lessons learned and practical tips, of our experience as burgeoning web app developers. We hope researchers interested in developing web apps draw insights from our (in)experience as they set out on their decision support tool development journey.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gokulan CG ◽  
Uday Kiran ◽  
Santosh Kumar Kuncha ◽  
Rakesh K Mishra

The rapid spread and evolution of various strains of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, continues to challenge the disease controlling measures globally. Alarming concern is, the number of second wave infections surpassed the first wave and the onset of severe symptoms manifesting rapidly. In this scenario, testing of maximum population in less time and minimum cost with existing diagnostic amenities is the only possible way to control the spread of the virus. The previously described RNA extraction-free methods using dry swab have been shown to be advantageous in these critical times by different studies. In this work, we show the temporal stability and performance of the dry swab viral detection method at two different temperatures. Contrived dry swabs holding serially diluted SARS-CoV-2 strains A2a and A3i at 25° (room temperature; RT) and 4° were subjected to direct RT-PCR and compared with standard VTM-RNA based method. The results clearly indicate that dry swab method of RNA detection is as efficient as VTM-RNA-based method in both strains, when checked for up to 72 hours. The lesser CT values of dry swab samples in comparison to that of the VTM-RNA samples suggest better sensitivity of the method within 48 hours of time. The results collectively suggest that dry swab samples are stable at RT for 24 hours and the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA by RT-PCR do not show variance from VTM-RNA. This extraction free, direct RT-PCR method holds phenomenal standing in the present life-threatening circumstances due to SARS-CoV-2.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 3394
Author(s):  
Claudia Yamu ◽  
Akkelies van Nes ◽  
Chiara Garau

Bill Hillier’s space syntax method and theory enables us to describe the spatial properties of a sustainable city. Empirical testing of the space syntax method over time has confirmed the capacity and innovativeness of analyzing spatial relationships with the purpose of understanding and explaining the socio-spatial organization of built environments. However, the conceptual framework of space syntax elements is scattered around in various academic writings. This article, therefore, gives a holistic and compact overview of the various concepts that are used in space syntax, from its basic elements to various analytical techniques and theories. To achieve this compact overview, we reviewed all space syntax literature accessible since the 1970s for finding core references to various concepts used in space syntax. Following a short description of its foundation and evolution through the work of Bill Hillier, we explain its basic concepts and measures in the form of an extended glossary. Explanations are enriched with various space syntax analyses and scenario testing on various scales that were applied to the city of Rotterdam in the Netherlands. We conclude with a discussion about the advantages and limitations of space syntax and about how this method adds value to the creation of sustainable cities.


IEEE Access ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
pp. 60617-60628
Author(s):  
Ala' J. Alnaser ◽  
Arman Sargolzaei ◽  
Mustafa Ilhan Akbas

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 5921
Author(s):  
Lu Wu ◽  
Thomas H. Misselbrook ◽  
Liping Feng ◽  
Lianhai Wu

Chemical fertiliser nitrogen addition will inhibit biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) for soybean (Glycine max [L.] Merr) growth. The optimal balance of these two nitrogen input sources has been a key issue for sustainable development in Northeast China. We used the data collected from a four-year experiment with varied irrigation and fertiliser treatments from 2007 to 2010 to evaluate the SPACSYS (Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Continuum SYStem) model. The validated model was run to investigate the responses to different management practices in seed yield, BNF, protein yield and soil nitrogen budgets. Scenario testing showed average yield increase of 2.4–5.2% with additional 50–100 kg N/ha application. Irrigation at the reproductive stage improved seed yield in drier years with an increase of 12–33% compared with the rain-fed treatment. BNF was suppressed by fertiliser nitrogen application and drought stress with a decrease of 6–33% and 8–34%, respectively. The average nitrogen budget without fertilization indicated a deficit of 39 kg N/ha. To attain higher seed yield, applying fertiliser at 25–30 and 15–20 kg N/ha before sowing is advised in drier and wetter years, respectively. To achieve a higher seed nitrogen content, an application rate of 55–60 and 45–50 kg N/ha is recommended for drier and wetter years, respectively.


Author(s):  
Mirjam E. Kretzschmar ◽  
Ganna Rozhnova ◽  
Martin Bootsma ◽  
Michiel van Boven ◽  
Janneke van de Wijgert ◽  
...  

SummaryBackgroundWith confirmed cases of COVID-19 declining in many countries, lockdown measures are gradually being lifted. However, even if most social distancing measures are continued, other public health measures will be needed to control the epidemic. Contact tracing via conventional methods or mobile app technology is central to control strategies during deescalation of social distancing. We aimed to identify key factors for a contact tracing strategy (CTS) to be successful.MethodsWe evaluated the impact of timeliness and completeness in various steps of a CTS using a stochastic mathematical model with explicit time delays between time of infection and symptom onset, and between symptom onset, diagnosis by testing, and isolation (testing delay). The model also includes tracing of close contacts (e.g. household members) and casual contacts, followed by testing regardless of symptoms and isolation if positive, with different delays (tracing delay) and coverages (tracing coverage). We computed effective reproduction numbers of a CTS (Rcts) for a population with social distancing measures and various scenarios for isolation of index cases and tracing and quarantine of its contacts.FindingsFor the best-case scenario (testing and tracing delays of 0 days and tracing coverage of 80%), and assuming that around 40% of transmission occur before symptom onset, the model predicts that the effective reproduction number of 1.2 (with social distancing only) will be reduced to 0.8 by adding contact tracing. A testing delay of 2 days requires tracing delay to be at most 1 day, or tracing coverage to be at least 80% to keep Rcts below 1. With a testing/isolation delay of 3 days, even the most efficient CTS cannot reach Rcts values below 1. The effect of minimizing tracing delay (e.g., with app-based technology) declines with decreasing coverage of app use, but app-based tracing alone remains more effective than conventional tracing alone even with 20% coverage. The proportion of transmissions per index case that can be prevented depends on testing and tracing delays, and ranges from up to 80% in the best-case scenario (testing and tracing delays of 0 days) to 42% with a 3-day testing delay and 18% with a 5-day testing delay.InterpretationIn our model, minimizing testing delay had the largest impact on reducing onward transmissions. Optimizing testing and tracing coverage and minimizing tracing delays, for instance with app-based technology, further enhanced CTS effectiveness, with a potential to prevent up to 80% of all transmissions. Access to testing should therefore be optimized, and mobile app technology may reduce delays in the CTS process and optimize contact tracing coverage.Research in contextEvidence before this studyWe searched PubMed, bioRxiv, and medRxiv for articles published in English from January 1, 2020, to June 20, 2020, with the following keywords: (“2019-nCoV” OR “novel coronavirus” OR “COVID-19” OR “SARS-CoV-2”) AND “contact tracing” AND “model*”. Population-level modelling studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have suggested that isolation and tracing alone might not be sufficient to control outbreaks and additional measures might be required. However, few studies have focused on the effects of lifting individual measures once the first wave of the epidemic has been controlled. Lifting measures must be accompanied by effective contact tracing strategies (CTS) in order to keep the effective reproduction number below 1. A detailed analysis, with special emphasis on the effects of time delays in testing of index patients and tracing of contacts, has not been done.Added value of this studyWe performed a systematic analysis of the various steps required in the process of testing and diagnosing an index case as well as tracing and isolating possible secondary cases of the index case. We then used a stochastic transmission model which makes a distinction between close contacts (e.g. household members) and casual contacts to assess which steps and (possible) delays are crucial in determining the effectiveness of CTS. We evaluated how delays and the level of contact tracing coverage influence the effective reproduction number, and how fast CTS needs to be to keep the reproduction number below 1. We also analyzed what proportion of onward transmission can be prevented for short delays and high contact tracing coverage. Assuming that around 40% of transmission occurs before symptom onset, we found that keeping the time between symptom onset and testing and isolation of an index case short (<3 days) is imperative for a successful CTS. This implies that the process leading from symptom onset to receiving a positive test should be minimized by providing sufficient and easily accessible testing facilities. In addition, reducing contact-tracing delays also helps to keep the reproduction number below 1.Implications of all the available evidenceOur analyses highlight that CTS will only contribute to containment of COVID-19 if it can be organised in a way that time delays in the process from symptom onset to isolation of the index case and his/her contacts are very short. The process of conventional contact tracing should be reviewed and streamlined, while mobile app technology may offer a tool for gaining speed in the process. Reducing delay in testing subjects for SARS-CoV-2 should be a key objective of CTS.


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