The philosophy of populism in the work of a sociologist: in memory of Irina Albertovna Khaliy (1950–2020)

In memory of the Russian sociologist I. A. Khaliy, known for her research in the field of civil society, environmental sociology, local communities, social movements and non-profit organisations, the article analyses the philosophy of populism, which was actively used by the sociologist in her research. The analysis is built in two stages. The first one is based on highlighting the main views of the populists and their subsequent criticism, with access to a number of areas that were affected by populist thought, such as man and his nature, the question of solidarity and signs of social life, the doctrine of human needs, methods and methodology of social sciences, philosophy of action as a research position. The second stage is a comparative analysis, as a result of which it is considered how the views of the populists were reflected in the work of I. A. Khaliy, what refraction and sound they acquired a century later from the point of view of practical application. The work is all the more interesting because it gives an idea of the philosophy of populism not as an obsolete phenomenon of the past, but as a phenomenon of the present, which turns out to be especially relevant in a situation of systemic crises and their assessment, including by intellectuals and representatives of the intelligentsia.

Uncovering Effects of Hot Potatoes in Banking System: Arresting Die-Hard Issues

This study is aimed to conceptually engineer the effects of hot potatoes (bad loans) in the banking system. The study’s research design uses elementary concepts of graph theory comprising of mappings of systemic behavior of contemporary banking. Issues have been formally underpinned, described, and visualized through directed and linear graphs. Findings of the study show that it is an inherent feature of the banking system to generate hot potatoes and allow them to sit there. It creates heat in the system by way of latency, turgescence, propagation, and concurrent cyclicality. These predicaments of systemic crises of banking deteriorate the sustainability of the system. The pilot study (using classical t-Test) conducted as part of this research has validated the theoretical argument aforementioned. The study provides new insights into these die-hard issues. It helps refine the agenda of future research in banking.

Crisis management in public institutions

Crisis management in the context of public institutions is particularly important, due to the extremely large possible impact of the consequences of systemic crises on society as a whole. Suboptimal or too slow decisions of public institutions usually affect a much wider set of people, entities, and economic and financial developments than when it comes to crisis management in individual companies, even if they are systemically important. This paper focuses on the activities of the Croatian National Bank and the Croatian Financial Services Supervisory Agency in dealing with the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic and presents the most important activities of the government, government agencies, and commercial banks that have had an impact on financial stability. The analytical part of the paper presents the effect of trading suspension on the Zagreb Stock Exchange on 12th March 2020 and its implications on the market. Although it is still too early to make final assessments, given the course of the pandemic, the available data suggest that the activities of domestic institutions have so far been effective in maintaining financial stability in Croatia.

Новый геополитический контекст взаимоотношений Армении и России в условиях изменения баланса военно-политических сил региональных и мировых держав в регионе

The purpose of the article is to consider various historical and political aspects that form the geopolitical context of Russian-Armenian relations. The author tried to take into account the factors that appeared as the consequences of Azerbaijan's aggression and the results of the Second Artsakh War. Using the methods of factorial and system analysis the article studies various combinations of interaction between states, both directly located in the region and being global political players for which political processes in the Transcaucasia are only a part of more global political projects. The existing system of political relations is distinguished by instability and the formation of a new system of political and military risks. All participants in political relations have reasons to seek complications in Russian-Armenian relations. There are also threats for them in the context of the domestic policy of Russia and Armenia. Overcoming these negative phenomena is a condition for the preservation and development of statehood in both Russia and Armenia. The development of a negative scenario will lead to new military conflicts and systemic crises of the entire Greater Caucasus.

Estimating probability of banking crises using random forest

<span id="docs-internal-guid-4935b5ce-7fff-d9fa-75c7-0c6a5aa1f9a6"><span>Banks have a crucial role in the financial system. When many banks suffer from the crisis, it can lead to financial instability. According to the impact of the crises, the banking crisis can be divided into two categories, namely systemic and non-systemic crisis. When systemic crises happen, it may cause even stable banks bankrupt. Hence, this paper proposed a random forest for estimating the probability of banking crises as prevention action. Random forest is well-known as a robust technique both in classification and regression, which is far from the intervention of outliers and overfitting. The experiments were then constructed using the financial crisis database, containing a sample of 79 countries in the period 1981-1999 (annual data). This dataset has 521 samples consisting of 164 crisis samples and 357 non-crisis cases. From the experiments, it was concluded that utilizing 90 percent of training data would deliver 0.98 accuracy, 0.92 sensitivity, 1.00 precision, and 0.96 F1-Score as the highest score than other percentages of training data. These results are also better than state-of-the-art methods used in the same dataset. Therefore, the proposed method is shown promising results to predict the probability of banking crises.</span></span>

Una aproximación a las intervenciones discrecionales del Estado como fuente de inestabilidad financiera

Many have called for the design of the present financial system —one capable of causing the global crisis currently assailing us— to be overhauled. Yet few feel that the State’s active and discretionary role needs to be changed so as to promote, safeguard and shore up financial stability. This article aims to act as a catalyst in this debate. On the assumption that State discretionary actions are an endogenous factor capable of upsetting the system as a whole and prompting systemic crises, the article makes a case for re-designing the main monetary and financial institutions (money, monetary authorities, banking business model, inter alia) to eliminate such discretionary intervention. State conduct would be confined to ensuring that diffuse market forces act freely and responsibly, observing the law, property rights and con-tracts. The article concludes with the potential effects this institutional redesign would have on financial stability. Tentatively, these effects would be beneficial, suggesting this avenue of research should be pursued. Key words: Financial Stability, State Intervention, Banking, Money. JEL Classification: E42, E52, E58, G21. Resumen: Son muchas las voces que reclaman una revisión del diseño del sistema financiero actual, capaz de provocar una crisis mundial como la que ahora vivimos. Sin embargo, pocas de estas voces ven necesario que se revise el papel activo y discrecional del Estado para fomentar, salvaguardar y recobrar la estabilidad financiera. Este artículo pretende ser un contrapunto en este debate. Desde la hipótesis de que las actuaciones discrecionales del Estado son una causa endógena con capacidad para desorientar al sistema en su conjunto y provocar crisis sistémicas, el artículo apunta de forma intro-ductoria el rediseño necesario de las principales instituciones monetarias y financieras (dinero, autoridades monetarias, modelo de negocio bancario, entre otras) que elimine dicha intervención discrecional. La actuación del Estado quedaría limitada a asegurar que las fuerzas dispersas del mercado actúen libre y responsablemente respetando la ley, la propiedad y los con-tratos. El artículo concluye con los posibles efectos que tendría dicho rediseño institucional para la estabilidad financiera. Desde esta primera aproximación, estos efectos serían beneficiosos lo que animan a continuar esta línea de investigación. Palabras clave: Estabilidad Financiera, Intervención del Estado, Banca, Dinero. Clasificación JEL: E42, E52, E58, G21.

Paradigm change: from economic growth to sustainable value creation

The dynamics of the development of economic systems is characterized by the evolution of institutions, of the resources used, of the applied technologies, of the relations between the subjects of the economic activity and other associated transformations. The current period is characterized by a series of changes that affect all components of the global economic system: digital transformation, climate change, systemic crises of state administrations, economic crises, global pandemic, etc. It is clear that these changes will shape a new economic system. The current task of the main actors in this process is to assign to this new system a series of characteristics that will not be random, but controllable, desired and accepted by all stakeholders

Economy, Policy, Crisis and Tourism: Analyzing the Tourist Flow in Brazil in the Period 1993 - 2019

This article aims to discuss tourist activity in Brazil from the perspective of uncertainties and fluctuations arising from the country's social, political and economic environment. The article presents data on national and international passenger traffic in Brazil and relates to major events and the occurrence of economic and political crises at the national and international levels. To verify whether crises affect the performance of tourism, a 27-year historical series was prepared based on official statistics from Brazilian government agencies and international organizations such as the WTO. The results presented indicate that, despite the increase in tourist traffic in the first decade of the 21st century, the Brazilian tourism market still underperforms capacity due to the persistent and serious economic and social disparities and political and economic uncertainties. This research offers an alternative perspective regarding the performance of tourist activity in Brazil, by relating the flow of national and international landings to the economic and political turbulences experienced in the period, indicating that contagious systemic crises at an international level affect the Brazilian tourism market less than domestic crises.

THE PRINCIPLES OF GUIDED EVOLUTION OF SOCIETY – A SYSTEMIC PERSPECTIVE

Since the beginning of the 21st century, many regions in the world have faced with economic volatility, political instability, environmental degradation, cultural wars and various cyber threats, which only intensified during the coronavirus pandemic. The reason behind these crises is a fragmented character of human interactions that are motivated by self or local interest, despite the fact that we are becoming increasingly interconnected in complex global networks. From a systemic perspective, human interactions in contemporary society are motivated by centrifugal social forces, promoting independence and an increased sense of entitlement, exclusive individualism, hostile competitiveness, all of which are completely purposeless, even harmful in today's global society. We are constantly trying to implement pre-global individualistic values in a global interdependent system, thus causing "cracks" in the social fabric of reality, which we could especially witness during the coronavirus pandemic. In order to bring about a change in current trends, a paradigm shift is required, first of all in human values, which would increase existing centripetal social forces. This means that the generation living today must formulate a commitment to global citizenship alongside involvement in local citizenship. In order to protect ourselves from future outbursts of pandemics and other similar systemic crises, a new vision of human society is required which fosters openness, care for the "other", and mutual responsibility across national borders, as well as cultural, religious, racial, gendered and other divides. The only effective response to global crises is – global response.