A Test of Income Smoothing Using Pseudo Fiscal Years

The purpose of our study is to further understand managerial incentives that affect the volatility of reported earnings. Prior research suggests that the volatility of fourth-quarter earnings may be affected by the integral approach to accounting (i.e., “settling up” of accrual estimation errors in the first three quarters of the fiscal year) or earnings management to meet certain reporting objectives (e.g., analyst forecasts). We suggest that another factor affecting fourth-quarter earnings is managers’ intentional smoothing of fiscal-year earnings. For each firm, we create pseudo-year earnings using four consecutive quarters other than the four quarters of the reported fiscal year. We then compare the earnings volatility of pseudo years to the earnings volatility of the firm’s own reported fiscal year. We find evidence consistent with fourth-quarter accruals reflecting managerial incentives to smooth fiscal-year earnings. This conclusion is validated by several cross-sectional tests, the pattern in quarterly cash flows and accruals, and several robustness tests. Overall, we contribute to the literature exploring alternative explanations for the differential volatility of fiscal-year and fourth-quarter earnings. This paper was accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting.

FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI VOLATILITAS HARGA SAHAM PADA EMITEN YANG TERDAFTAR DI JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX

ABSTRAKTujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu meneliti pengaruh kebijakan dividen, volume perdagangan, volatilitas laba, ukuran perusahaan dan tingkat hutang terhadap volatilitas harga saham di emiten yang terdaftar di JII dari tahun 2015 sampai 2019. Adapun manfaat dari penelitian ini dalam eksistensi pasar finansial secara global karena dapat mengukur tingkat risiko. Penelitian ini dibantu dengan alat analisis Eviews 10. Regresi data panel dipilih dalam penelitian ini. Hasil penelitian membuktikan bahwa secara individual dividend payout ratio, volume perdagangan dan volatilitas laba secara positif memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan, ukuran perusahaan secara negatif memiliki pengaruh signifikan, dan tingkat hutang tidak memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap volatilitas harga saham. Secara simultan, variabel dividend payout ratio, volume perdagangan, ukuran perusahaan, volatilitas laba, dan tingkat hutang signifikan berpengaruh terhadap volatilitas harga saham. Kata Kunci: Volatilitas harga saham, emiten syariah, regresi data panel. ABSTRACTThe purpose of this study is to examine the effect of dividend policy, trading volume, earnings volatility, company size and level of debt on stock price volatility in issuers listed in JII from 2015 to 2019. The benefits of this research are in the existence of global financial markets because it can measure the level of risk. This research is assisted by the analysis tool Eviews 10. Panel data regression. selected in this study. The results showed that partially the dividend payout ratio, trading volume and earnings volatility had a positive and significant effect, company size had a negative and significant effect, and the level of debt had no significant effect on stock price volatility. Simultaneously, the variable dividend payout ratio, trading volume, company size, earnings volatility, and level of debt have a significant effect on stock price volatility. Keywords: Stock price volatility, sharia company, panel data regression. DAFTAR PUSTAKABawono, A., & Shina, A. F. I. (2018). Ekonometrika terapan untuk ekonomi dan bisnis Islam aplikasi dengan Eviews. Salatiga: Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian kepada Masyarakat (LP2M) IAIN Salatiga Press.Brigham, E. F., & Houston, J. F. (2011). Dasar-dasar manajemen keuangan, buku kedua. Jakarta: Salemba Empat.Camilleri, S. J., Grima, L., & Grima, S. (2019). The effect of dividend policy on share price volatility: an analysis of Mediterranean banks’ stocks. Managerial Finance, 45(2), 348–364. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-11-2017-0451Dewi, S., & Paramita, R. A. S. (2019). Pengaruh kebijakan dividen, volume perdagangan, earning volatility, leverage, dan firm size terhadap volatilitas harga saham perusahaan LQ45. Jurnal Ilmu Manajemen, 7(3), 761–771.Fakhruddin, H. M. (2008). Istilah pasar modal A-Z. Jakarta: Elex Media Komputindo.Gumanti, T. A. (2013). Kebijakan Dividen (Pertama). UPP STIM YKPN.Jahfer, A., & Mulafara, A. H. (2016). Dividend policy and share price volatility: Evidence from Colombo stock market. Internaltional Journal Managerial and Financial Accounting, 8(2), 97–108. DOI:10.1504/IJMFA.2016.077947Jannah, R., & Haridhi, M. (2016). Pengaruh kebijakan dividen, earning volatility, dan leverage terhadap volatilitas harga saham pada perusahaan non-financing yang terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia tahun 2010-2014. Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Ekonomi Akuntansi, 1(1), 133–148.Mehmood, A., Ullah, M. H., & Ul Sabeeh, N. (2019). Determinants of stock price volatility: Evidence from cement industry. Accounting, 5(4), 145–152. https://doi.org/10.5267/j.ac.2019.2.002Muhamad. (2016). Manajemen keuangan syari’ah analisis fiqh & keuangan. Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN.Novius, A. (2017). Analisis pengaruh kebijakan deviden ( Dividen payout ratio dan devidend yield) terhadap volatilitas harga saham (Studi empiris pada perusahaan kelompok LQ45 yang terdaftar di BEI). Jurnal Al-Iqtishad, 13(1), 67. https://doi.org/10.24014/jiq.v13i1.4389Rowena, J., & Hendra. (2017). Earnings volatility, kebijakan dividen, dan pertumbuhan asset berpengaruh terhadap volatilitas harga saham pada perusahaan manufaktur di BEI periode 2013 – 2015. Jurnal Administrasi Kantor, 5(2), 231–242.Sarmanu. (2017). Dasar metodologi penelitian. Surabaya: Airlangga University Press.Septyadi, M. A., & Bwarleling, T. H. (2020). Pengaruh volume perdagangan saham, leverage, dan kebijakan dividen terhadap volatilitas harga saham, 2, 149–162.Shah, S. A., & Noreen, U. (2016). Stock price volatility and role of dividend policy: Empirical evidence from Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(2), 461–472.Spence. (1973). Job market signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355–374. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010Tandelilin, E. (2010). Manajemen portofolio dan investasi. Surabaya: Kanisius.Yulinda, E., Pujiastuti, T., & Haryono, S. (2020). Analisis pengaruh dividend payout ratio, leverage, firm size, volume perdagangan, earning volatility, dan inflasi terhadap volatilitas harga saham pada perusahaan yang terdaftar dalam indeks LQ45 tahun 2014-2017. Jurnal Ilmiah Indonesia Ilmiah Indonesia, 5(5), 76. DOI:10.36418/syntax-literate.v5i5.1106Zainudin, R., Mahdzan, N. S., & Yet, C. H. (2018). Dividend policy and stock price volatility of industrial products firms in Malaysia. International Journal of Emerging Markets, 13(1), 203–217. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJoEM-09-2016-0250

Hedging on the Hill: Does Political Hedging Reduce Firm Risk?

We examine whether firms’ political hedging activities are effective at mitigating political risk. Focusing on the risk induced by partisan politics, we measure political hedging as the degree to which firms’ political connections are balanced across Republican and Democratic candidates. We find that greater political hedging is associated with reduced stock return volatility, particularly during periods of higher policy uncertainty. Similarly, greater political hedging is associated with reduced crash risk, investment volatility, and earnings volatility. Moreover, the reduction in earnings volatility appears to relate to both a firm’s taxes and its operating activities, as we find that greater political hedging is associated with reduced cash effective tax rate volatility and pretax income volatility. We further find investors are better able to anticipate future earnings for firms that engage in political hedging, suggesting that political hedging helps improve firms’ information environments. Lastly, we perform an event study using President Obama’s Clean Power Plan. We find that on the days this policy proposal was debated in Congress, energy and utility firms experienced heightened intraday return volatility (relative to other firms and nonevent days). However, this heightened volatility is mitigated for energy and utility firms that are more politically hedged. Overall, we conclude that political hedging is an effective risk management tool that helps mitigate firm risk. This paper was accepted by Suraj Srinivasan, accounting.

EARNINGS VOLATILITY AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE OF NON-FINANCIAL FIRMS OF PAKISTAN

In this research investigated capital structure and earning volatility. For this purpose, selected a sample of 267 firms listed on Karachi Stock exchange1 during 2006-2014.Data are panel in nature, therefore used panel data techniques for analysis. Moreover, selected the fixed effect model on the basis of diagnostic tests result. Finally, the results demonstrate that earnings volatility negatively and significantly affect the capital structure of sample firms. Thus, concluded that high volatility reduces the confidence level of creditors.

Fair value accounting impact on decision-usefulness of accounting information: evidence from accounting standards update 2016–01 on the USinsurance industry

Purpose The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of ASU 2016–01 on the predictive value, the confirmatory value and the value relevance of earnings. One of the key provisions of ASU 2016–01 is the requirement that all changes in unrealized gains and losses on all equity securities are recognized in income instead of other comprehensive income (OCI) as under prior guidance (SFAS 115). Because many companies in the insurance industry are large holders of equity securities, the sample for this study consists of firms from the insurance industry. Design/methodology/approach The author compares the change in earnings volatility and analysts’ forecast error for the periods before and after adoption of ASU 2016–01, and the relationship between the percentages of assets invested in equity securities for both earnings volatility and analysts’ forecast error. Further, the author tests the price reaction at the time of the release of earnings using an event study. The author also tests the value reliance of earnings measured by the correlation of earnings and stock prices, as well as the change in earnings and stock returns. The association between investment gain/loss components of earnings, and OCI, with stock prices and returns is tested for value relevance. Findings The findings of this study show that earnings volatility and analysts’ forecast errors increased in the period after adopting ASU 2016–01 and an initial overreaction to earnings releases. Further, the investment gain/loss components of earnings and OCI are not value-relevant in this study and including unrealized gains/losses on equity securities in income decreased value relevance of earnings in the post-adoption period, particularly for firms with large equity investment portfolios. Research limitations/implications This study is limited to one industry and only represents the impact of ASU 2016–01 on that industry. Thus, there are opportunities to extend the research to other industries. Furthermore, the time-period of study since adopting ASU 2016–01 is limited to only two years and with the passage of time, a greater sample of post-ASU 2016–01 will be available for testing. Practical implications Standard setters considering recognizing fair value changes on all investment securities in income should consider the findings of this study. Further, industry participants affected by ASU 2016–01 should consider improving explanation of earnings to mitigate the initial misunderstanding of earning announcements found in this study. Originality/value To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study on the effects of ASU 2016–01 on volatility of earnings, earnings forecast errors, market reactions to earnings releases and the value relevance of earnings. This paper fills a gap in prior research by studying the effects of fair value on reported earnings, which is limited in prior research. This study contributes to the growing field of research on fair value accounting.

Three essays on economic consequences of new accounting regulation and bank accounting

This dissertation comprises three distinct chapters. The first chapter examines whether accounting quality improves for firms voluntarily adopting IFRS by using a single country setting of Swiss firms. The Swiss setting enables isolating the effect of the change from accounting standards from changes in reporting enforcement. I find that voluntary adopters exhibit significant improvement in accounting quality metrics in the post-adoption period. Classifying the adopters in non-serious or serious adopters based on their actual reporting changes around the adoption, I find that the non-serious adopters do not face accounting quality improvements in the post-adoption period. Overall, the evidence points towards the explanation that accounting quality is mainly shaped by reporting incentives. The second chapter examines the new Expected Credit Loss (ECL) model’s impact on the predictability of loan loss provisions (LLP) and potential market discipline consequences. I examine whether the arguably less objective LLP under IFRS 9 obscure market participants’ ability to monitor the banks’ risk-taking incentives. The empirical findings suggest a decrease in the association between loan loss provisions and the incurred loss model determinants in the post-IFRS 9 period, i.e., LLP are based less on objective determinants after IFRS adoption. Furthermore, I find a decrease in the sensitivity of leverage to changes in risk in the post-adoption period of IFRS 9, indicating an attenuated market discipline over banks’ risk-taking. In contrast, I find no changes in the determinants of LLP and market discipline for the benchmark sample of U.S. banks, which were not subject to similar accounting changes during the sample period. The third chapter examines whether banks change the accounting designation of derivatives after ASU 2017-12. I investigate the impact of the new standard on earnings volatility within different groups of derivative users. Using detailed quarterly data on financial derivatives for bank holdings, I find that the level of earnings volatility and the ASU 2017-12 influence the banks’ decisions to use hedge accounting. In assessing the impact within groups of derivative users, I find evidence that banks that designate derivatives for hedge accounting purposes exhibit a lower level of earnings volatility around the adoption of ASU 2017-12 as opposed to banks that elect not to apply hedge accounting. I also find that banks that elect to use hedge accounting for the first time after adopting the standard update exhibit decreased earnings volatility. Overall, the findings confirm the FASB’s initial intention of introducing the accounting standard’s update.

Earnings Volatility, the Use of Financial Derivatives and Earnings Management: Evidence from an Emerging Market

In the face of crises such as Covid-19, businesses become devastated by greater risk exposure, particularly in currency exchange, supply chain disruption, and fluctuation in commodity prices that cause volatile earnings trends. Higher earnings volatility is frequently associated with greater risk. Consequently, firms could be inspired to engage in earnings management or derivative use as attempts to mitigate earnings volatility. Using a sample of 169 of the largest non-financial firms with 507 firm-years observations from an emerging market, the researchers examined the relationship among derivative use, earnings volatility, and earnings management. The results of a panel regression analysis showed that derivative use by Malaysian public listed companies was positively connected with earnings volatility, inferring that the use of derivatives did not mitigate earnings volatility as intended. This study also found that both earnings volatility and derivative use have a positive relationship with earnings management. This implies that firms engage in earnings management to curb earnings volatility under circumstances where derivative use is associated with higher earnings volatility. Evidence derived from this study contributes to extant literature on financial risk management involving financial instruments, an area that is very much understudied in the contexts of emerging markets.

Pengaruh Struktur Modal Dan Volatilitas Laba terhadap Kualitas Laba PT. Bank Sumut

The purposes of this research was to determined the influence of the capital structure and earnings volatility on the earnings quality PT. Bank Sumut. This research also aims to assess how the condition of the capital structure, earnings volatility and earnings quality at PT. Bank Sumut for 10 years lately. The proxy of capital structure is leverage, earnings volatility is standard deviasi of earnings and for the earnings quality the proxy is discretionary loan loss provisions. The samples used in this study are the quarterly financial statement of PT. Bank Sumut for the period of 2010 until the first semester of 2020. The analytical method used was multiple regression analysis. The result show that the capital structure has a negative significant effect on the earnings quality and earnings volatility does not has a significant effect on the earnings quality in PT. Bank Sumut. Meanwhile, the capital structure and earnings volatility simultaneous have a significant effect on the earnings quality.

MANAJEMEN LABA YANG DIPENGARUHI OLEH MANAGERIAL OVERCONFIDENCE DAN KEPEMILIKAN KELUARGA

ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tindakan manajemen laba yang dipengaruhi oleh managerial overconfidence dan kepemilikan keluarga. Penelitian ini menggunakan sebuah indeks untuk dapat mengukur variabel managerial overconfidence yang dikonstruksikan pada komponen aktivitas investasi, aktivitas pendanaan, dan kebijakan dividen dengan median industri sebagai pembanding. Data yang digunakan adalah sampel perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia selama tahun 2012-2017. Perusahaan manufaktur dipilih sebagai sampel penelitian dikarenakan perusahaan manufaktur memiliki tingkat volatility laba yang berubah-ubah. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini untuk menganalisis data dan menguji hipotesis adalah statistik deskriptif dan uji regresi linier berganda. Hasil pengujian statistik pada penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa variabel managerial overconfidence berpengaruh positif terhadap manajemen laba. Selain itu, pengujian interaksi antara kepemilikan keluarga dengan managerial overconfidence tidak memperlemah terjadinya manajemen laba. Kata Kunci: Managerial Overconfidence, Manajemen Laba, Kepemilikan Keluarga ABSTRACT This study aims to determine that earnings management is influenced by managerial overconfidence and family ownership. This study uses an indeks to measure the managerial overconfidence variable which is constructed in the components of investment activity, financial activity, and dividend policy with the industry median as a comparison. The data used is a sample of manufacturing companies listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange during 2012-2017. Manufacturing companies are selected as research samples because manufacturing companies have varying levels of earnings volatility. This study's research method to analyze data and test hypotheses is descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression. The results of statistical tests in this study indicate that the managerial overconfidence variable has a positive effect on earnings management. In addition, testing the interaction between family ownership with managerial overconfidence does not equate to improved earnings management. Keywords: Managerial Overconfidence, Earnings Management, Family Ownership