Challenges In Reanalysis Products To Assess Extreme Weather Impacts On Yield Underestimate Drought

The incidence of dry or wet day sequences has a great influence on crops management and development. The lack of spatialized observed data with appropriate temporal resolution to investigate the changes that has occurred during the last century regarding the length and frequencies of those sequences has led to reliance on reanalysis products. However, the question can be raised about the suitability of those products when evaluating such climate indices and their impacts on crop production. Different products are here investigated to evaluate the way that succession of dry and wet days are depicted. We showed clearly that the frequency and intensity of dry and wet spells returned can differ widely between products. For instance, number of dry spell events can range from 1 to 11 over the same decade for two different products. This divergence in representation of spells could generate substantial differences in impact analysis of crop yields in agricultural modeling.

MODELING EDUCATION TO DEVELOP RESISTIVE ECONOMICS IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY IN IRAN

The disruption of the economy has many problems for society .As a result all countries in the world are seeking to achieve improvements in productivity, So that they can get more productive by consuming lesser resources. This article is intended to explain modeling Agricultural Extension, in the Resistive Economics of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the presentation of the paradigm model has been done with the help of the Grounded theory, the factors influencing the formation of agricultural modeling in the resistive economics, have been identified and the paradigm model of resistance economy in agriculture. The overall approach to this research is qualitative and for the analysis of qualitative data Grounded theory, has been used in which 21 experts and pundits in the field of agriculture and economics sampling, through theoretical sampling method. Data were collected by semi-structured interview and was coded for data analysis using MAXQDA12 software. In this study, a total of 122 codes, 34 categories and 4 main categories, were extracted. The main category include: the weaknesses and Strengths points, the opportunities and threats of the agricultural sector, the promotion of agriculture, and the meaning of resilient economy, according to experts. The results showed that the most important factor of economic deterrent in agriculture: (High cost of production) and the most important factors leading the economy are agriculture (planning the right policies for macroeconomics), and for factor of resistive economics and the concept that has the greatest impact on creating (this factor domestic economic), To influence role of resistance in agriculture (provision of food was achieved through agriculture).

PRODUÇÃO DE MILHO ESTIMADA PELO SOFTWARE AQUACROP E OBTIDA PELA CULTURA SOB DIFERENTES LÂMINAS DE IRRIGAÇÃO

PRODUÇÃO DE MILHO ESTIMADA PELO SOFTWARE AQUACROP E OBTIDA PELA CULTURA SOB DIFERENTES LÂMINAS DE IRRIGAÇÃO NATÁLIA GRAMELISCH SILVESTRE1; GUSTAVO HADDAD SOUZA VIEIRA2; THIAGO LOPES ROSADO3; CARLOS MAGNO MULINARIO POLONI4; GUILHERME PETERLE5 E MARCELO RODRIGO KRAUSE6 1IFES campus Santa Teresa, Rod. ES 080, km 93, 29.660-000, São João de Petrópolis, Santa Teresa, Espírito Santo, Brasil, e-mail:[email protected] 2IFES campus Santa Teresa, Rod. ES 080, km 93, 29.660-000, São João de Petrópolis, Santa Teresa, Espírito Santo, Brasil, e-mail: [email protected] 3IFES campus Santa Teresa, Rod. ES 080, km 93, 29.660-000, São João de Petrópolis, Santa Teresa, Espírito Santo, Brasil, e-mail: [email protected] 4IFES campus Santa Teresa, Rod. ES 080, km 93, 29.660-000, São João de Petrópolis, Santa Teresa, Espírito Santo, Brasil, e-mail: [email protected] 5IFES campus Santa Teresa, Rod. ES 080, km 93, 29.660-000, São João de Petrópolis, Santa Teresa, Espírito Santo, Brasil, e-mail: [email protected] 6IFES campus Santa Teresa, Rod. ES 080, km 93, 29.660-000, São João de Petrópolis, Santa Teresa, Espírito Santo, Brasil, e-mail: [email protected] 1 RESUMO Objetivou-se neste trabalho avaliar a correlação da produção de biomassa de milho estimada pelo software AquaCrop e a obtida pela cultura implantada sob diferentes lâminas de irrigação. O experimento foi realizado em delineamento inteiramente casualizado, composto por 5 Tratamentos (T) de lâminas de irrigação, baseadas na demanda de evapotranspiração, sendo, T1 – 25%, T2 – 50%, T3 – 75%, T4 – 100%, T5 – 125% da evapotranspiração da cultura (ETc). As simulações foram realizadas pelo software AquaCrop, tendo como variáveis clima, solo, cultura e irrigação. Para o ciclo I, as variáveis altura de planta, produtividade e biomassa fresca total atingiram os maiores valores quando receberam as maiores lâminas de irrigação, para o ciclo II, estas variáveis apresentaram comportamento quadrático. A relação de resultados observados/simulados para biomassa fresca total, mostrou que os valores estimados pelo Aquacrop subestimaram os observados em campo durante os dois ciclos da cultura. Enquanto que os valores de biomassa seca para o ciclo I, em sua maioria, também foram subestimados, para o ciclo II, o T3 e o T4 apresentaram correspondência ideal de 1:1. O aplicativo Aquacrop se mostrou confiável para estimativa de milho nas condições deste estudo, sendo uma interessante ferramenta para fins de predição de produção e desenvolvimento da cultura. Palavra-chave: modelagem agrícola, biomassa, estimativa, silagem. SILVESTRE, N. G.; VIEIRA, G. H. S.; ROSADO, T. L.; POLONI, C. M. M.; PETERLE, G.; KRAUSE, M. R. MAIZE PRODUCTION ESTIMATED BY AQUACROP SOFTWARE AND OBTAINED BY CROP UNDER DIFFERENT IRRIGATION DEPTHS 2 ABSTRACT The objective of this study was to evaluate the correlation between corn biomass production estimated by AquaCrop software and that obtained by the crop implanted under different irrigation depths. The experiment was carried out in a completely randomized design consisting of 5 treatments (T) of irrigation depths, based on evapotranspiration demand, T1 - 25%, T2 - 50%, T3 - 75%, T4 - 100%, T5. - 125% of crop evapotranspiration (ETc). The simulations were performed by AquaCrop software, having as variables climate, soil, crop and irrigation. For cycle I, variables plant height, yield and total fresh biomass reached the highest values ​​when they received the largest irrigation depths. For cycle II, these variables presented quadratic behavior. The relationship of observed / simulated results to total fresh biomass showed that the values ​​estimated by Aquacrop underestimated those observed in the field during the two crop cycles. While dry biomass values ​​for most of cycle I were also underestimated, for cycle II, T3 and T4 presented an ideal 1: 1 correspondence. The Aquacrop application proved reliable for corn estimation under the conditions of this study, being an interesting tool for crop production and development prediction purposes. Keywords: agricultural modeling, biomass, estimation, silage

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SUGARCANE PRODUCTIVITY

The progressive increase in global temperature causes concern worldwide, which is constantly looking for ways to minimize the impacts caused to the environment as a result of human activities in the last decades.As a result, “clean energy” has been the solution to control pollution and global warming, as they cause low environmental impacts.Today, biofuels and mainly bioethanol derived essentially from sugarcane replaces fossil fuels very efficiently.Due to the high influence and relevance that sugarcane exerts nationally, in relation to the economic and environmental issue, it is vitally important to think about how its production system will be in scenarios that consider climate change.In order to analyze this system is necessary to obtain data, not always easily obtained in field research, for this reason, the agricultural modeling through the simulation of scenarios can contribute by predicting situations and helping to make future decisions.Therefore, an APSIM® simulation model was proposed, validating it with local data and later the effects of climate change on sugarcane productivity were studied through agricultural modeling simulating three (3) scenarios with change in average air temperature and CO2 concentration:S1 without climate change (current), S2 (year 2020) with change of + 0.24°C and increase of +26 ppm of CO2, S3 (year 2040) with change of +0.84°C and increase of +114 ppm of CO2 and S4 (year of 2080) with change of + 1.14°C and increase of +201 ppm of CO2.The studied climatic change scenarios may lead to higher stalks and sugar productivity per hectare due to higher rates of CO2 fixation and temperature increase.