Modeling the Effects of Future Hydroclimatic Conditions on Microbial Water Quality and Management Practices in Two Agricultural Watersheds

Highlights Increased fecal coliform (FC) loading from nonpoint sources is associated with wetter-warmer futures. Drier-warmer futures reduced FC loads but caused more recreational water quality criteria exceedances. More extensive BMP implementation may be needed to meet water quality goals. Abstract. Anticipated future hydroclimatic changes are expected to alter the transport and survival of fecally sourced waterborne pathogens, presenting an increased risk of recreational water quality impairments. Managing future risk requires an understanding of the interactions between fecal sources, hydroclimatic conditions, and best management practices (BMPs) at spatial scales relevant to decision makers. In this study, we used the Hydrologic Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) to quantify potential fecal coliform (FC, an indicator of the potential presence of pathogens) responses to a range of mid-century climate scenarios and assess different BMP scenarios (based on reduction factors) for reducing the risk of water quality impairment in two small agricultural watersheds: the Chippewa watershed in Minnesota, and the Tye watershed in Virginia. In each watershed, simulations show a wide range of FC responses, driven largely by variability in projected future precipitation. Wetter future conditions, which drive more transport from nonpoint sources (e.g., manure application, livestock grazing), show increases in FC loads. Loads typically decrease in drier futures; however, higher mean FC concentrations and more recreational water quality criteria exceedances occur, likely caused by reduced flow during low-flow periods. Median changes across the ensemble generally show increases in FC load. BMPs that focus on key fecal sources (e.g., runoff from pasture, livestock defecation in streams) within a watershed can mitigate the effects of hydroclimatic change on FC loads. However, more extensive BMP implementation or improved BMP efficiency (i.e., higher FC reductions) may be needed to fully offset increases in FC load and meet water quality goals, such as total maximum daily loads and recreational water quality standards. Strategies for managing climate risk should be flexible and to the extent possible include resilient BMPs that function as designed under a range of future conditions. Keywords: Climate, HSPF, Management responses, Microbial water quality, Modeling, Watersheds.