Analisis Hubungan Kausalitas Konsumsi Energi (Terbarukan Dan Tidak Terbarukan) Dengan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis estimasi jangka pendek dan jangka panjang serta hubungan kausalitas antara konsumsi energi terbarukan dan energi tidak terbarukan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia menggunakan data tahunan dari tahun 1990 hingga 2019. Metode Ordinary Least Square (OLS) dan Error Correction Term (ECT) digunakan untuk menganalisis estimasi model jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi energi terbarukan dan energi tidak terbarukan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam jangka panjang. Dalam jangka pendek, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa konsumsi energi tidak terbarukan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan konsumsi energi terbarukan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Hasil uji kausalitas Granger menunjukkan tidak adanya hubungan kausalitas antara konsumsi energi terbarukan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam jangka pendek, serta antara konsumsi energi tidak terbarukan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Selain itu, terdapat kausalitas dua arah antara konsumsi energi terbarukan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam jangka panjang.

Dampak Minyak Dunia, Energi Terbarukan, dan Kebijakan Moneter Terhadap Laju Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Indonesia Tahun 1987-2019

Salah satu indikator yang bisa digunakan untuk mengetahui kemajuan suatu negara bisa dengan menggunakan indikator laju pertumbuhan ekonomi. Indonesia sebagai salah satu negara yang sedang berkembang memiliki laju pertumbuhan ekonomi yang mengalami fluktuasi dari tahun ke tahun. Hal ini bisa dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor dari berbagai aspek kehidupan seperti energi, faktor produksi, dan moneter. Oleh karena itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui gambaran laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia 1987-2019 dan faktor-faktor yang memengaruhi laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode Error Correction Mechanism. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa produksi minyak dunia, nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap US Dollar, dan suku bunga berpengaruh signifikan terhadap laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dalam jangka panjang. Selain itu, persentase Pembentukan Modal Tetap Bruto terhadap total PDB pengeluaran Indonesia, nilai tukar Rupiah ke US Dollar, suku bunga, dan Error Correction Term (ECT) berpengaruh signifikan terhadap laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dalam jangka pendek.

Infrastructure Development and Economic Growth in Nepal

This article, on infrastructure development and economic growth in Nepal, focuses on the infrastructure development that seems to affect economic growth in Nepal during the study period 1994-2018. To investigate the casual relationship between infrastructure development and the economic growth, this study has employed Engel-Granger cointegration test and Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) model. The results showed a cointegration and a stable relationship between gross domestic product and infrastructure variables—such as total length of road, percentage of economically active population, percentage of tertiary education enrollment, and gross capital formation. In addition, the coefficient of Error Correction term was -0.88—signifying about 88 percent adjustments towards equilibrium, confirmed by the occurrence of a stable long-run relationship among the variables. The sign of Error correction term (Ect) became negative and statistically significant at the 1 percent level, indicating the possibility of convergence towards equilibrium in each period with adjustment captured by difference terms. This study has its implication for policymakers to raise economic growth through infrastructure development. The expansion of infrastructure network leads to the enhancement of efficiency and competitive market, and the acceleration of the economic growth within the country.

Impact of Government Expenditure in Economic Growth of Nepal: ARDL Approach

Public expenditure refers to the expenditure made by public authority, i.e., central government and other local bodies to carter the demand of the people. It is for protecting the citizens and for promoting their economic and social welfare. Public expenditure is one of the instruments through which government influence economic events. The specific objective of this paper is to analyze the long run and short run relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Nepal and to examine the Causal relationship between the public expenditure and economic growth in Nepal. The study employed quantitative techniques and econometrics methods to analyze the data. This study used time series data. Data analysis begins with the testing of the unit root of the series to confirm whether the data are stationary or not. Augmented Dicky Fuller unit root test, co-integration test is employed to check the relationship of the variables under study. One period lagged LNGE has significant and positive impact on RGDP. If 1 percent increase in GE leads to increase by 34.99 percent in RGDP at 5 percent level of significance. The coefficient of error correction term (-0.782018) is significant at one percent level. Highly significant negative sign of the error correction term strengthens the presence of long-run relationship among the variables. However, the speed of adjustment from previous year’s disequilibrium in RGDP added to current year’s equilibrium is only 78.20 percent. The P-value of Breusch-Godfrey serial Correlation LM Test, Heteroscedasticity test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey and normality test is greater than 5 percent which is desirable. So, this model is free from auto correlation and heteroscedasticity. The residual is normally distributed.

Impact of economic growth on international reserve holdings in Brazil

ABSTRACT This study investigated the impact of economic growth on Brazilian international reserves holdings in the context of Error Correction Mechanism using data over the 1980-2014 period. The results reveal that economic growth is highly significant. From the estimation of our model, we argue that economic growth and international reserves have positive long run relationship. Error correction estimates validated our model for error correction term is negative and statistically significant. Besides, our model suggested that economic growth has short run relationship too. The speed of adjustment is more than 40% which indicated that error correction term corrects previous year disequilibrium at the rate of 40.4%.

ANALISIS PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA, PENDAPATAN NASIONAL DAN INFLASI TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR NOMINAL : PENDEKATAN DENGAN COINTEGRATION DAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM)

Abstrak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa pengaruh Suku bunga, inflasi, dan Pendapatan Nasional terhadap nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar baik hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang maupun keseimbangan jangka pendek data empiris tahun 1980-2015 (36 tahun) dengan menggunakan data sekunder. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah regresi linier berganda metoda OLS. Metoda penelitian ini menggunakan mendekatan dengan cointegration dan error correction model (ECM) dengan sebelumnya melallui beberapa tahapan pengujian statistic lainnya. Hasil dalam penelitian dengan cointegration (Johansen Cointegration test) menunjukkan bahwa semua variable bebas (inflasi, pendapatan nasional dan suku bunga) dan variable tak bebas (nilai tukar) telah terjadi hubungan keseimbangan (equilibrium) dalam jangka panjang, hal ini dibuktikan dengan hasil uji tersebut dimana nilai trace statistic sebesar 102.1727 jauh lebih besar dari nilai kritis (5%) sebesar 47.85613. Selain itu pula hasil dari Maximum Eigenvalue Statistic yaitu dengan hasil sebesar 36,7908 lebih besar dari nilai kritis 5%. Sebesar 27,584434. Sementara hasil dari uji koreksi kesalahan model (ECM) bahwa hanya variable inflasi, suku bunga dan residual yang signifikan, sementara variable pendapatan nasional tidak signifikan. Hal ini yang berarti bahwa variable inflasi dan suku bungan mempunyai hubungan jangka pendek terhadap nilai tukar, hal ini terlihat dari nilai Probabilitas (Prob.) masing- masing variable dibawan 0,05 (5%), selain itu koefisien residual pada hasil uji ECM adalah -0,732447, hal ini menunjukan bahwa koreksi kesalah (error correction term) adalah sebesar 73,24% dan significant.

Dynamic Effects of U.S. Budget Deficit and Labor Productivity - Real Wage Gap On Stock Market Performance

This paper investigates the dynamic effects of annual U.S budget deficit as aratio of GDP and labor productivity-real wage gap on US stock market performance.The sample period runs from 1950 through 2012. The standard cointegration methodologyis appropriately applied. All the aforementioned variables are nonstationaryin levels revealing I(1) behavior. The coefficient of the error-correction term of thevector error-correction model (VECM) has expected negative sign with statisticalsignificance confirming long-run unidirectional causality stemming from the independentvariables to the stock market return. However, the speed of adjustment towardsa long-run equilibrium is slow as reflected in the low numerical coefficientof the error-correction term. The evidences on short-run interactive feedback effectsare also very weak.