The heuristic vulnerability model: fragility curves for masonry buildings

In the framework of seismic risk analyses at large scale, among the available methods for the vulnerability assessment the empirical and expert elicitation based ones still represent one of most widely used options. In fact, despite some drawbacks, they benefit of a direct correlation to the actual seismic behaviour of buildings and they are easy to handle also on huge stocks of buildings. Within this context, the paper illustrates a macroseismic vulnerability model for unreinforced masonry existing buildings that starts from the original proposal of Lagomarsino and Giovinazzi (Bull Earthquake Eng 4(4):445–463, 2006) and has further developed in recent years. The method may be classified as heuristic, in the sense that: (a) it is based on the expertise that is implicit in the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS98), with fuzzy assumptions on the binomial damage distribution; (b) it is calibrated on the observed damage in Italy, available in the database Da.D.O. developed by the Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). This approach guarantees a fairly well fitting with actual damage but, at the same time, ensures physically consistent results for both low and high values of the seismic intensity (for which observed data are incomplete or lacking). Moreover, the method provides a coherent distribution between the different damage levels. The valuable data in Da.D.O. allowed significant improvements of the method than its original version. The model has been recently applied in the context of ReLUIS project, funded by the DPC to support the development of Italian Risk Maps. To this aim, the vulnerability model has been applied for deriving fragility curves. This step requires to introduce a correlation law between the Macroseismic Intensity (adopted for the calibration of the model from a wide set of real damage data) and the Peak Ground Acceleration (at present, one of most used instrumental intensity measures); this conversion further increases the potential of the macroseismic method. As presented in the paper, the first applications of the model have produced plausible and consistent results at national scale, both in terms of damage scenarios and total risk (economic loss, consequences to people).

Insights on the European Fault-Source Model (EFSM20) as input to the 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20)

<p>The H2020 Project SERA (WP25-JRA3; http://www.sera-eu.org) is committed to updating and extending the 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13; Woessner et al., 2015, Bull. Earthquake Eng.) to form the basis of the next revision of the European seismic design code (CEN-EC8). Following the probabilistic framework established for ESHM13, the 2020 update (ESHM20) requires a continent-wide seismogenic model based on input from earthquake catalogs, tectonic information, and active faulting. The development of the European Fault-Source Model (EFSM20) fulfills the requirements related to active faulting.</p><p>EFSM20 has two main categories of seismogenic faults: crustal faults and subduction systems. Crustal faults are meant to provide the hazard model with seismicity rates in a variety of tectonic contexts, including onshore and offshore active plate margins and plate interiors. Subduction systems are meant to provide the hazard model with both slab interface and intraslab seismicity rates. The model covers an area that encompasses a buffer of 300 km around all target European countries (except for Overseas Countries and Territories, OTCs), and a maximum of 300 km depth for slabs.</p><p>The compilation of EFSM20 relies heavily on publicly available datasets and voluntarily contributed datasets spanning large regions, as well as solicited local contributions in specific areas of interest. The current status of the EFSM20 compilation includes 1,256 records of crustal faults for a total length of ~92,906 km and four subduction systems, namely the Gibraltar Arc, Calabrian Arc, Hellenic Arc, and Cyprus Arc.</p><p>In this contribution, we present the curation of the main datasets and their associated information, the criteria for the prioritization and harmonization across the region, and the main strategy for transferring the earthquake fault-source input to the hazard modelers.</p><p>The final version of EFSM20 will be made available through standard web services published in the EFEHR (http://www.efehr.org) and EPOS (https://www.seismofaults.eu) platforms adopting FAIR data principles.</p><p>The SERA project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No.730900.</p>