Analysis of multivariate longitudinal immuno-epidemiological data using a pairwise joint modelling approach

Background Immuno-epidemiologists are often faced with multivariate outcomes, measured repeatedly over time. Such data are characterised by complex inter- and intra-outcome relationships which must be accounted for during analysis. Scientific questions of interest might include determining the effect of a treatment on the evolution of all outcomes together, or grouping outcomes that change in the same way. Modelling the different outcomes separately may not be appropriate because it ignores the underlying relationships between outcomes. In such situations, a joint modelling strategy is necessary. This paper describes a pairwise joint modelling approach and discusses its benefits over more simple statistical analysis approaches, with application to data from a study of the response to BCG vaccination in the first year of life, conducted in Entebbe, Uganda. Methods The study aimed to determine the effect of maternal latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (LTBI) on infant immune response (TNF, IFN-γ, IL-13, IL-10, IL-5, IL-17A and IL-2 responses to PPD), following immunisation with BCG. A simple analysis ignoring the correlation structure of multivariate longitudinal data is first shown. Univariate linear mixed models are then used to describe longitudinal profiles of each outcome, and are then combined into a multivariate mixed model, specifying a joint distribution for the random effects to account for correlations between the multiple outcomes. A pairwise joint modelling approach, where all possible pairs of bivariate mixed models are fitted, is then used to obtain parameter estimates. Results Univariate and pairwise longitudinal analysis approaches are consistent in finding that LTBI had no impact on the evolution of cytokine responses to PPD. Estimates from the pairwise joint modelling approach were more precise. Major advantages of the pairwise approach include the opportunity to test for the effect of LTBI on the joint evolution of all, or groups of, outcomes and the ability to estimate association structures of the outcomes. Conclusions The pairwise joint modelling approach reduces the complexity of analysis of high-dimensional multivariate repeated measures, allows for proper accounting for association structures and can improve our understanding and interpretation of longitudinal immuno-epidemiological data.

Neonatal and infant immunity for tuberculosis vaccine development: importance of age-matched animal models

ABSTRACTNeonatal and infant immunity differs from that of adults in both the innate and adaptive arms, which are critical contributors to immune-mediated clearance of infection and memory responses elicited during vaccination. The tuberculosis (TB) research community has openly admitted to a vacuum of knowledge about neonatal and infant immune responses to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection, especially in the functional and phenotypic attributes of memory T cell responses elicited by the only available vaccine for TB, the Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccine. Although BCG vaccination has variable efficacy in preventing pulmonary TB during adolescence and adulthood, 80% of endemic TB countries still administer BCG at birth because it has a good safety profile and protects children from severe forms of TB. As such, new vaccines must work in conjunction with BCG at birth and, thus, it is essential to understand how BCG shapes the immune system during the first months of life. However, many aspects of the neonatal and infant immune response elicited by vaccination with BCG remain unknown, as only a handful of studies have followed BCG responses in infants. Furthermore, most animal models currently used to study TB vaccine candidates rely on adult-aged animals. This presents unique challenges when transitioning to human trials in neonates or infants. In this Review, we focus on vaccine development in the field of TB and compare the relative utility of animal models used thus far to study neonatal and infant immunity. We encourage the development of neonatal animal models for TB, especially the use of pigs.

Crawling with Virus: Translational Insights from a Neonatal Mouse Model on the Pathogenesis of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Infants

The infant immune response to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) remains incompletely understood. Here we review the use of a neonatal mouse model of RSV infection to mimic severe infection in human infants. We describe numerous age-specific responses, organized by cell type, observed in RSV-infected neonatal mice and draw comparisons (when possible) to human infants.