The Effect of Swabs on Modeling the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Italy

The daily fluctuations in the released number of Covid-19 cases played a big role at the beginning of the pandemic, when local authorities in Italy had to decide whether imposing restrictive policies. When an increase/decrease was communicated, especially a large one, it was difficult to understand if it was due to a change in the epidemic evolution or if it was a fluctuation due to other reasons, such as an increase in the number of swabs or a delay in the swab processing. The aim of this paper is both to model the main trend of the outbreak evolution in the number of confirmed cases and to describe the daily fluctuations strongly dependent on the daily number of swabs. For our analysis, we propose a nonlinear asymmetric diffusion model, which includes information on the daily number of swabs, to describe daily fluctuations in the number of confirmed cases in addition to the main trend of the outbreak evolution. The proposed model is found to be the more efficient for prediction, as compared to 6 already existing models, including the SIRD and the logistic models. The new model combines the properties of innovation diffusion models with a parsimonious way to exploit information about swabs. Doi: 10.28991/esj-2021-SPER-04 Full Text: PDF

Diffusion of IFRS using innovation diffusion models

Purpose This study aims to examine the diffusion pattern of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) into the countries and identifies the channels of diffusion. Design/methodology/approach Data includes 98 countries that made a public commitment to IFRS adoption from 2000 to 2016. Adoptee countries are categorized based on Rogers’ adopter categorizations to understand country characteristics. Innovation diffusion models such as internal influence, external influence and bass diffusion that explain diffusion patterns are applied to the cumulative adoption of IFRS. Coefficients of internal and external diffusion are obtained using the models to explain the mode of diffusion pattern of IFRS. Further tests are done to identify the best model that explains IFRS diffusion. Findings Findings show that IFRS diffusion is a result of external influence through vertical communication from a centralized body (IASB) and internal influence due to imitation and interpersonal communication between countries. Imitation effect among the countries has a stronger effect on the IFRS adoption compared to the communication obtained from IASB. Practical implications Findings obtained can help standards-setting bodies, organizations and countries to understand the potential future of adopters and non-adopters. It facilitates the standard-setting bodies to manage IFRS diffusion by implementing measures to spread the word on the benefits of IFRS. Originality/value The study generates value by modeling a successive increase in the number of IFRS adoptee countries using empirical methods and identifies the reasons for the diffusion life cycle of IFRS.

Modeling the Diffusion of Private Pension Provision

The purpose of this paper is threefold: to adapt the innovation diffusion models to describe and predict the diffusion of private pension provision; to evaluate the suitability of diffusion models based on the historical data from the Romanian and Ukrainian voluntary pension systems; and to compare the diffusion parameters of private pension provision in these countries. The study proven that diffusion models, such as the Rogers model and the Bass model, can reproduce the diffusion of innovations in the field of pensions. The Rogers diffusion parameters for Romania and Ukraine are almost identical; this gives grounds for a conclusion about the similar behavioral patterns in post-socialist countries. However, some limitations on models use are noted. During the crisis and when using the nudge mechanism, models are not always well-fitting, but when new pension schemes are introduced or new pension funds are opened, models can be used in “guessing by analogy”.

Network-Based Targeting

This chapter focuses on two kinds of targeting in mobile industry: to target churning customers and to target potential customers. These two targeting strategies are very important goals in Customer Relationship Management (CRM). In the first part of the chapter, the author reviews churn prediction models and its applications. In the second part of the chapter, traditional innovation diffusion models are reviewed and agent-based models are explained in detail. Customers in telecom industry are usually connected by large and complex networks. To understand how network effects and consumer behaviors – such as churning and adopting – interplays with each other is of great significance. Therefore, detailed examples are given to network-based targeting analysis.

Financial markets diffusion patterns. The case of Mexican investment funds

Research background: Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are one of the most influential financial innovations, reshaping the investment funds market in many countries, including Mexico. Due to their similar investment objectives, ETFs are considered substitutes for mutual funds. Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to provide an indepth insight into the issues associated with the development of financial markets in Mexico over the period 2002-2012, putting special emphasis on the development patterns of ETFs. Methods: First we use descriptive statistics to unveil basic changes and trends in the Mexican investment funds (ETFs and mutual funds). Then we use a category of the innovation diffusion models, i.e. logistic growth models, in order to explore the key development patterns. Data sources and methodological framework are presented in the second section of the article, with a detailed description of the innovation diffusion models applied in the research (based on 3-parametric logistic curve). The sum of assets under management of ETFs and mutual funds is considered as the size of the total investment funds market. Findings and Value added: Empirical findings indicate a significant development of the ETF market, both in terms of assets under management and market share. According to the presented estimations, Mexican ETF market development can be described with the logistic growth models, and three characteristic phases of the logistic curve were clearly observable. The predicted ETF market development patterns point towards a further increase of the market share of ETFs over the next 3-5 years, yet the probability of exceeding the level of ca. 20-30% seems low.

Network-Based Targeting

This chapter focuses on two kinds of targeting in mobile industry: to target churning customers and to target potential customers. These two targeting strategies are very important goals in Customer Relationship Management (CRM). In the first part of the chapter, the author reviews churn prediction models and its applications. In the second part of the chapter, traditional innovation diffusion models are reviewed and agent-based models are explained in detail. Customers in telecom industry are usually connected by large and complex networks. To understand how network effects and consumer behaviors – such as churning and adopting – interplays with each other is of great significance. Therefore, detailed examples are given to network-based targeting analysis.