Modeling minimum viable population size with multiple genetic problems of small populations

An important goal for conservation is to define minimum viable population (MVP) sizes for long-term persistence. Although many MVP size estimates focus on ecological processes, with increasing evidence for the role of genetic problems in population extinction, conservation practitioners have also increasingly started to incorporate inbreeding depression (ID). However, small populations also face other genetic problems such as mutation accumulation (MA) and loss of genetic diversity through genetic drift that are usually factored into population viability assessments only via verbal arguments. Comprehensive quantitative theory on interacting genetic problems is missing. Here we develop eco-evolutionary quantitative models that track both population size and levels of genetic diversity. Our models assume a biallelic multilocus genome whose loci can be under either a single or interacting genetic forces. In addition to mutation-selection-drift balance (for loci facing ID and MA), we include three forms of balancing selection (for loci where variation is lost through genetic drift). We define MVP size as the lowest population size that avoids an eco-evolutionary extinction vortex after a time sufficient for an equilibrium allele frequency distribution to establish. Our results show that MVP size decreases rapidly with increasing mutation rates for populations whose genomes are only under balancing selection, while for genomes under mutation-selection-drift balance, the MVP size increases rapidly. MVP sizes also increase rapidly with increasing number of loci under the same or different selection mechanisms until a point is reached at which even arbitrarily large populations cannot survive anymore. In the case of fixed number of loci under selection, interaction of genetic problems did not necessarily increase MVP sizes. To further enhance our understanding about interaction of genetic problems, there is need for more empirical studies to reveal how different genetic processes interact in the genome.

A management strategy for the long-term conservation of the Endangered sand-dune lizard Liolaemus multimaculatus in the Pampean coastal dunes of Argentina

The sand-dune lizard Liolaemus multimaculatus is an Endangered species endemic to the Pampean coastal dunes of Argentina. To inform the development of a future Action Plan for this species, we investigated the demography and conservation status of all remaining populations, and we suggest management actions appropriate to local needs. We used population viability analysis to assess extinction risk in three inbreeding scenarios and estimate the minimum viable population and the minimum area requirement. To assess the current status of each local population, we used information related to population size, human pressure and connectivity. The results were then used to set and prioritize conservation management actions at local level. Our models indicated that populations of > 2,400 individuals would be viable in the long term and that inbreeding depression has a strong effect on extinction risk. The southern patches of coastal dune contain the largest populations of sand-dune lizards, and they are also better connected and less threatened. We suggest land protection as the priority management action for populations larger than the minimum viable population, whereas habitat recovery, when possible, should be the priority for patches of coastal dune smaller than the minimum area requirement. Supplementation with a small number of individuals could stabilize unviable populations but should be considered only in certain situations.The long-term conservation of the sand-dune lizard will be feasible only if a conservation action plan is developed and implemented.