Venezuelan regional election results are uncertain

Significance An EU election observation mission continues to deploy, despite the government’s withdrawal from Norwegian-led dialogue efforts. The opposition goes into the elections divided and in some cases reluctantly. The International Criminal Court (ICC) decision to advance an investigation into the government has re-energised voices in favour of an electoral boycott, including US Senator Marco Rubio. Impacts The extradition of Venezuelan presidential adviser Alex Saab to the United States will add to the strain in bilateral relations. Hawkish elements in the United States and on the Venezuelan right will increase pressure on opposition groups to boycott elections. The International Contact Group will seek to strengthen opposition confidence in elections as a first step on a slow road back to democracy.

Pouring Salt into the Wound: The Crisis of International Election Observation and COVID-19 in Africa

International election observation in Africa is in crisis. This crisis manifests in various ways, including lowering of standards from democracy promotion to ‘peaceocracy’; strategic interest bias; progress bias; low-tech methodologies; dominance over citizen observer groups; and contradiction of verdicts of election observation missions with court judgments. The crisis characterizes the wound of international election observation. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic found a pre-existing unhealthy condition of international election observation, thereby pouring salt into the wound. It accentuated the existential crisis of international election observation. Observation has to be recalibrated during and after the pandemic. Existing challenges facing international election observation have to be redressed. International election observation has to adapt to the new condition marked by COVID-19. This adaptation should include development and implementation of guidelines on election observation during COVID-19. In the long run, sustainability of election observation rests in the institutional strengthening of citizen-based observer groups.

THE INFLUENCE OF ELECTION OBSERVATION ON INCUMBENT’S ELECTORAL RESULTS: THE CASE OF GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS IN ST. PETERSBURG

The article includes a literature review on election observation in contemporary Russia and empirical research of the election observation influence on the results of the gubernatorial election in St. Petersburg. In the literature review section, the two approaches towards election observation are distinguished: election observation as a tool of control and participation, and election observation as imitation and legitimation. In the empirical section, due to the lack of systematic data, election observation is operationalized as the share of election committee members nominated by different political forces. The empirical section concludes with the thesis about the limited effect of the electoral monitoring on the incumbent’s results (the results of the acting governor were to a higher extent influenced by the turnout level, the share of voters, who cast their ballots at home, and those who voted against all of the candidates). The results of the analysis support the argument about the existence of two models of election observation: participatory and imitation-legitimizing. In the concluding section the possible directions for further research are suggested: studying of the electoral fraud mechanisms at the level of individual election committees, legitimation of frauded results, and ways in which independent election committee members and election observers combat and prevent electoral fraud.

POLICIES OF STATES TOWARDS INTERNATIONAL ELECTION OBSERVATION

The article presents a study of policies of modern states regarding the institution of international election observation. The study is based on the application of constructivism and realism as the main theories of international relations to explain the actions of national governments in this area. The features of the institution of international election observation in the context of its compliance with the principle of state sovereignty are revealed. Despite the declaration of respect for state sovereignty, the practice of international election observation significantly limits state policy in the field of elections and practically defies national governments’ attempts to regulate it. The paradox and complexity of the current situation lies in the fact that national governments change their policies due to the influence of international observers, but governments cannot find a means to shape the international observation. The institution of international election observation not only eliminates the Westphalian understanding of state sovereignty, but also creates new forms of international accountability of national governments. Within the framework of constructivism, international observation is seen as an institution that promotes democratization and supports progressive trends within the country through the assistance of the international community. The theory of realism acts as the ideological basis for national governments seeking to limit the activities of observers. Within the framework of realism, international observers are viewed as representatives of foreign states that pose a threat to national interests. The article identifies and describes the main models and methods of policies of governments seeking to limit and control international observation. Short historical experience is also a factor that makes it difficult for national governments to choose effective means towards international observation.

Dual Effects of Democracy Promotion: Evidence from International Election Observation Data of Myanmar’s General Elections

Since the 1990s, international election observation, as an important way of election monitoring, has become increasingly active on the international stage. By inviting international election observation missions (IEOMs) to conduct election monitoring, the nascent democracies not only hope to promote democracy and enhance its legitimacy, but also tend to reduce international sanctions and improve relations with the West. The international election observation of Myanmar’s two general elections in 2010 and 2015 is an important sample to observe Myanmar’s democratic process and its interaction with the international community. IEOMs in Myanmar have witnessed diverse situations from being rejected to being invited, from being independently observed to participating and from slamming elections to praising them. In the 2015 general elections, IEOMs had an important impact on Myanmar’s democratic transition, but in essence, their limitations were only surrounding the election-related matters. The work done by many international election observation organizations has been limited to the procedural level of democracy, and could not help Myanmar to further the institution-building. General elections in Myanmar are due in 2020. Currently, many IEOMs have traveled to Myanmar for election observation, but it is yet to be decided whether it will contribute to good governance in Myanmar.

Election Observation in Zimbabwe

Election observation is fast emerging as a central tenet of preserving and extending democracy in Africa and other parts of the world. It is also evolving as the flagship of democracy promotion and the best-funded type of democracy-related assistance. Since the end of the Cold War, hundreds of elections held in Africa have been the subject of election observation involving hordes of local, regional, and international observers. The scrutiny comes against the backdrop of the African Union (AU) and membership regional bodies resolving to make election observation a component of all polls conducted in Africa. The article explores the opportunities, challenges, and constraints to election observation in Zimbabwe. The general conclusion of the article is that election observation is crucial for the realisation of democratic polls in Zimbabwe.

Resisting International Election Observation Through Election Visit Programmes: The Case of Malaysia

Malaysia has not invited International Election Monitoring Organisations (IEMOs) for any of its general elections (GEs) since 1990 and so is numbered among those states that defy this international norm. Although the elections under the Barisan Nasional (BN) regime displayed a wide variety of manipulative practices, the BN was able, due to its position as a semi-authoritarian nature, its strategic importance and its lack of dependence on foreign aid, to successfully resist demands for the presence of IEMOs. The prospects for IEMOs has been further reduced, since the GE 2013, by the Election Commission’s “election visit programme” (EVP), adopted to compensate for the absence of IEMOs. Following Malaysia’s historic GE 2018, a widespread consensus has developed that though Malaysia should not abandon its own EVP programme, it should readopt this international norm by inviting IEMOs. This is especially needed considering the amateurish state of domestic election monitoring in Malaysia.