Deconvolving The Effects of Coastal Erosion and Sea-Level Rise in Assessing Shoreline Retreat Along Semi-Arid Urban Coasts

The alarming vulnerability of low-lying sandy beaches to the acceleration of global sea level rise has been confirmed in the recent IPCC AR6 report. The situation is worsened by increasing coastal erosion, resulting in additional shoreline retreat of sandy beaches along several semi-arid urban coastal areas around the globe. The additional shoreline retreats from erosion are indicative of the rising imbalance in coastal sedimentary processes, which are a direct consequence of changes in precipitation patterns, urban growth, and change in land use. To quantify the magnitude and timescale of both coastal erosion and sea-level rise (SLR) in generating shoreline retreat of sandy beaches in semi-arid urban areas, we combine photogrammetric and statistical methods to measure and forecast the decadal evolution of these coastlines using two well-characterized sites that are hypothesized herein to be globally representative of these types of coasts undergoing rapid urban growth. We use multi-decadal shoreline positioning and land use classification surveys of the Southern California (SC, USA) and the Hammamet-North (HAM, Tunisia) beaches from aerial and orbital photogrammetric images, combined with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System, for the period from 1985 to 2018. Our results suggest that the current average shoreline retreat rates of sandy beaches range from -0.75 to -1.24 m/yr in SC and from -0.21 to -4.49 m/yr in HAM under similar aridity, land coverage and precipitation patterns. The observed decadal changes in shoreline positions along these semi-arid urban coastal areas are found to be accentuated by anthropogenic drivers associated with extensive urbanization, causing sediment imbalance at the coastline, adding up to the effect of the accelerating SLR. We assess that ~81% and 57% of the observed shoreline retreat was due to SLR, and 19% to 43% due to coastal erosion from urban growth along SC and HAM beaches, respectively. Using these measured rates, we establish a semi-empirical numerical model that combines urban growth and the observed shoreline retreat rate to forecast retreat rates through 2100 for both of our study areas, inferred herein to be representative of other global semi-arid urban coasts. Our model suggests that future average total shoreline retreat rates, accounting for both urban growth and SLR, range from -2 to -4 m/yr for SC and HAM sandy beaches, respectively, through 2100. The above suggests that if no mitigation is made, by 2100 the cumulative shoreline retreat in these urban areas could significantly exceed the Global Scale Assessment Model’s [46] cumulative projected average retreat of -30 m, confirming the alarming vulnerability of the semi-arid coastal urban areas that would need intensive and costly beach nourishment to control increasing shoreline erosion.

Study and modelling of rapid shoreline displacement due to coseismic subsidence along the Kamchatka subduction zone

The first studies of geological evidences of coastal coseismic subsidence (associated with subduction-zone earthquakes) were carried out in Russia at the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, in Kamchatka. We developed a special method based on tephrostratigraphy and tephrochronology, descriptions and dating of the soil-pyroclastic sequence (SPS) overlying the coastal wave-build beach ridges. Three seismic events accompanied by coastal coseismic subsidence were detected in the northern part of Avachinsky Bay during the past ~5 thousand years. We found subsidence from one of the greatest historical tsunamigenic earthquake (1952 AD) south of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. We identified, that 5 events of coastal coseismic subsidence had occurred during the past ~6 thousand years at the coast of Kronotsky Bay and Shipunsky Peninsula. Amplitudes of subsidence were estimated by geological data using three different methods. Erosion of the active beach and marine accumulative terrace becomes active after coastal subsidence. We calculated the shoreline retreat process and the amount of horizontal erosion by numerical simulation using Bruun rule. In some areas, shoreline retreat was about 300 m according to the model results.

Multi-criteria approaches to identify the shoreline retreat downstream of dams: the North African case

Northern African beaches are among the most vulnerable areas under the extreme climate change hazard. Mainly sedimentary low-lying platform, the coasts are supplied by terrestrial yields, which are increasingly interrupted by dams. Unfortunately, the sediment fluxes are rarely measured and monitored, so that it is quite impossible today to assess the contribution of continental sediments to the coast and its variability. The aim of our study is to determine the sampling protocol of delta sedimentation plain and nearshore seabed for better understanding of the anthropogenic driver in contrast to climate change. We adopt a multi-criteria analysis based both on the geomorphologic feature and the historic evolution from the River to the littoral plain. The shoreline evolution reveals an alarming retreat trend reaching −20 m ± 0.15 m yr−1 after the human-induced change where ∼50 % of sediment discharge has been trapped upstream the dam, including quite all the coarse material, like sand. The shoreline retreat and the decreasing sediment rate of fluvial flow are all due to the dam construction.

Single Extreme Strong Sequence Can Offset Decades of Shoreline Retreat by Sea-level Rise

Extreme storms cause extensive beach-dune erosion and are universally considered to enhance coastal erosion due to sea-level rise (SLR). However, extreme storms can also have a positive contribution to the nearshore sediment budget by exchanging sediment between the lower and upper shoreface and/or between adjacent headlands, potentially mitigating adverse SLR impacts. Here we use three high-resolution morphological datasets of extreme storm-recovery sequences from Australia, the UK and Mexico to quantify the nearshore sediment budget and relate these episodic volume changes to long-term coastal forecasts. We show that sediment gains over the upper shoreface and beach were very significant (58-140 m3/m) and sufficient to offset decades of predicted shoreline retreat due to SLR, even for an upper SSP5-8.5 scenario. It is evident that increased confidence in shoreline predictions due to SLR relies fundamentally on robust quantitative understanding of the sediment budget, in particular any long-term contribution of sediment transport from outside the nearshore region.

Coastal Flooding in the Balearic Islands During the Twenty-First Century Caused by Sea-Level Rise and Extreme Events

Sea-level rise induces a permanent loss of land with widespread ecological and economic impacts, most evident in urban and densely populated areas. Potential coastline retreat combined with waves and storm surges will result in more severe damages for coastal zones, especially over insular systems. In this paper, we quantify the effects of sea-level rise in terms of potential coastal flooding and potential beach erosion, along the coasts of the Balearic Islands (Western Mediterranean Sea), during the twenty-first century. We map projected flooded areas under two climate-change-driven mean sea-level rise scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), together with the impact of an extreme event defined by the 100-year return level of joint storm surges and waves. We quantify shoreline retreat of sandy beaches forced by the sea-level rise (scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and the continuous action of storm surges and waves (modeled by synthetic time series). We estimate touristic recreational services decrease of sandy beaches caused by the obtained shoreline retreat, in monetary terms. According to our calculations, permanent flooding by the end of our century will extend 7.8–27.7 km2 under the RCP4.5 scenario (mean sea-level rise between 32 and 80 cm by 2100), and up to 10.9–36.5 km2 under RCP8.5 (mean sea-level rise between 46 and 103 cm by 2100). Some beaches will lose more than 50% of their surface by the end of the century: 20–50% of them under RCP4.5 scenario and 25–60% under RCP8.5 one. Loss of touristic recreational services could represent a gross domestic product (GDP) loss up to 7.2% with respect to the 2019 GDP.

Effects of Beach Nourishment Project on Coastal Geomorphology and Mangrove Dynamics in Southern Louisiana, USA

Relative sea-level (RSL) rise associated with decreased fluvial sediment discharge and increased hurricane activity have contributed to the high rate of shoreline retreat and threatened coastal ecosystems in Port Fourchon, Louisiana, USA. This study, based on QuickBird/drone images (2004–2019) and LIDAR data (1998–2013), analyzed the impacts of shoreline dynamics on mangroves (Avicennia germinans) and marshes before and after the initiation of a beach nourishment project in 2013. The coastal barrier and dune crest migrated landward between 1998 and 2013. Meanwhile, the dune crest height increased between 1998 and 2001, then decreased in 2013, probably due to hurricane impacts. The total sediment volume along this sandy coastal barrier presented an overall trend of decline in the 1998–2013 period, resulting in a wetlands loss of ~15.6 ha along 4 km of coastline. This has led to a landward sand migration onto muddy tidal flats occupied by Avicennia germinans (1.08 ha) and Spartina (14.52 ha). However, the beach nourishment project resulted in the advancement of the beach barrier from Nov/2012 to Jan/2015, followed by a relatively stable period between Jan/2015 and Mar/2019. Additionally, both the dune crest height and sediment volume increased between 2013 and 2019. This set of factors favored the establishment and expansion of mangroves (3.2 ha) and saltmarshes (25.4 ha) along the backbarrier environments after 2013, allowing the tidal flats to keep pace with the RSL rise. However, waves and currents caused shoreline erosion following the beach nourishment project between Oct/2017 and Nov/2019, threatening wetlands by resuming the long-term process of shoreline retreat.

Spatial-Planning-Based Ecosystem Adaptation (SPBEA): A Concept and Modeling of Prone Shoreline Retreat Areas

Ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change impacts, such as shoreline retreat, has been promoted at the international, national, and even local levels. However, among scientists, opinions about how to implement it in spatial-planning practices are varied. Science-based environmental factors, human wellbeing, and sustainable development can be strengthened by developing spatial-planning-based ecosystem adaptations (SPBEAs). Therefore, this article aims to assess how the SPBEA model can be developed within an area prone to shoreline retreat. A coastal area of the Sayung subdistrict in Central Java, Indonesia, was selected as a study area because it has experienced a massive shoreline retreat. A multicriteria analysis (MCA) method was employed for developing the model by using the geographic information system (GIS) technique of analysis, divided into three steps: the fishpond zone determination, which involved the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method in the process of model development; the fishpond site determination; SPBEA fishpond site development. The results show that the SPBEA model is the best practice solution for combatting shoreline retreat because of tidal waves and/or sea-level rise. The spatial site management should empower the coastal protection zone and the sustainable fishpond zone by implementing a silvofishery approach.