Chaos Models And The Monetary Dynamics Of Hyperinflation

Modern methods of qualitative analysis of dynamic systems go back nearly a century to Poincare (1880, 1892). Since the classic work of Smale (1967), it has become clear that very complicated, or chaotic, trajectories (time path) can easily arise in certain dynamic systems and that such complicates trajectories can persist when small perturbations of the underlying systems occur. Such a phenomenon, referred to as chaos, a case that is emphatically not pathological, is essentially one in which a dynamic mechanism that is very simple, and, above all, deterministic yields a time path so complicated that it will invariably pass all the standard tests of randomness. The seminal contribution of Lorenz (1963), Li and Yorke (1975), May (1976), Stefan (1977), amongst others have greatly facilitated an exploration of the pertinence of such complicated dynamics, arising in simple first order dynamic non-linear systems, to a variety of fields, including physics, biology, ecology and of late economics. In the context of the above literature and the development thereafter we intend to build the model that comprises of four equations. These specific: (1) The demand for real balances, (2) The money- inflation link, (3) the government budget deficit, and (4) the inflation tax revenue. The reduced form of the model is seen to yield a three parameter system whose phase diagram for the inflation rate (expressed in terms of a transcendental equation) produces solutions which are capable of generating stable, cyclic, or chaotic behavior.

The Puzzling Effect Of Money Shocks On Interest Rates

This study reexamines the controversial impact of changes in the growth rate of money supply on short-term nominal interest rates. Most of the early studies consistently find evidence that support a negative relationship between money shocks and interest rates. This relationship reflects the hypothesized liquidity effect. When the Fed accelerates the growth rate in money supply at given prices, output and inflation, the LM curve shifts, and real balances increase. Consequently, nominal an real interest rates are reduced. The results of the finite lag methods vary from one technique to another. However, the general trend points toward the vanishing liquidity effect. An infinite lag method which assumes a quadratic polynomial lag structure is also applied to data from 1972 through 1989. The results show a slight presence of the liquidity effect. The overall results also indicate that inflation rate as well as the variance of inflation rate slightly influence the relationship described above.

SEARCH, WELFARE, AND THE “HOT POTATO” EFFECT OF INFLATION

An increase in inflation causes people to hold smaller real balances and to speed up their spending. Virtually all monetary models capture the first—inflation tax—effect. Few capture the second—hot potato—effect. Those that do associate negative welfare consequences with the hot potato effect. Because both the inflation tax and the hot potato effect imply that inflation has negative effects on welfare, an optimal monetary policy is characterized by the Friedman rule. In the model presented here, there is a hot potato effect, but—all else held constant—the hot potato effect has positive consequences for welfare. As a result, a departure from the Friedman rule can be socially desirable.

US Growth And Inflation

<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; margin: 0in 0.5in 0pt;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman;">This paper tests the relation between inflation and growth in the US. This relation is negative and statistically significant even with a monthly frequency. Moreover, the impact is higher with quarterly data, relative to annual data, and higher with monthly data relative to quarterly data. The relation remains robust (1) with IV (2SLS) estimation, (2) when inflation is divided into positive and negative components, (3) when it is divided into expected and unexpected components, and (4) when the applied model is an expectations-augmented Phillips curve. Although the paper argues that the theory that should explain this negative relation is the demand for real balances, the evidence is also consistent with a simple bivariate association. </span></span></p>