Weight smoothing for nonprobability surveys

Adjustment techniques to mitigate selection bias in nonprobability samples often involve modelling the propensity to participate in the nonprobability sample along with inverse propensity weighting. It is well known that procedures for estimating weights are effective if the covariates selected in the propensity model are related to both the variable of interest and the participation indicator. In most surveys, there are many variables of interest, making weight adjustments difficult to determine as a suitable weight for one variable may be unsuitable for other variables. The standard compromise is to include a large number of covariates in the propensity model but this may increase the variability of the estimates, especially when some covariates are weakly related to the variables of interest. Weight smoothing, developed for probability surveys, could be helpful in these situations. It aims to remove the variability caused by overfit propensity models by replacing the inverse propensity weights with predicted weights obtained using a smoothing model. In this article, we study weight smoothing in the nonprobability survey context, both theoretically and empirically, to understand its effectiveness at improving the efficiency of estimates.

User Retention: A Causal Approach with Triple Task Modeling

For many Internet companies, it has been an important focus to improve user retention rate. To achieve this goal, we need to recommend proper services in order to meet the demands of users. Unlike conventional click-through rate (CTR) estimation, there are lots of noise in the collected data when modeling retention, caused by two major issues: 1) implicit impression-revisit effect: users could revisit the APP even if they do not explicitly interact with the recommender system; 2) selection bias: recommender system suffers from selection bias caused by user's self-selection. To address the above challenges, we propose a novel method named UR-IPW (User Retention Modeling with Inverse Propensity Weighting), which 1) makes full use of both explicit and implicit interactions in the observed data. 2) models revisit rate estimation from a causal perspective accounting for the selection bias problem. The experiments on both offline and online environments from different scenarios demonstrate the superiority of UR-IPW over previous methods. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to model user retention by estimating the revisit rate from a causal perspective.

A new three-step method for using inverse propensity weighting with latent class analysis

Bias-adjusted three-step latent class analysis (LCA) is widely popular to relate covariates to class membership. However, if the causal effect of a treatment on class membership is of interest and only observational data is available, causal inference techniques such as inverse propensity weighting (IPW) need to be used. In this article, we extend the bias-adjusted three-step LCA to incorporate IPW. This approach separates the estimation of the measurement model from the estimation of the treatment effect using IPW only for the later step. Compared to previous methods, this solves several conceptual issues and more easily facilitates model selection and the use of multiple imputation. This new approach, implemented in the software Latent GOLD, is evaluated in a simulation study and its use is illustrated using data of prostate cancer patients.

Confidence intervals for policy evaluation in adaptive experiments

Adaptive experimental designs can dramatically improve efficiency in randomized trials. But with adaptively collected data, common estimators based on sample means and inverse propensity-weighted means can be biased or heavy-tailed. This poses statistical challenges, in particular when the experimenter would like to test hypotheses about parameters that were not targeted by the data-collection mechanism. In this paper, we present a class of test statistics that can handle these challenges. Our approach is to adaptively reweight the terms of an augmented inverse propensity-weighting estimator to control the contribution of each term to the estimator’s variance. This scheme reduces overall variance and yields an asymptotically normal test statistic. We validate the accuracy of the resulting estimates and their CIs in numerical experiments and show that our methods compare favorably to existing alternatives in terms of mean squared error, coverage, and CI size.

Semiparametric inverse propensity weighting for nonignorable missing data

To estimate unknown population parameters based on data having nonignorable missing values with a semiparametric exponential tilting propensity, Kim & Yu (2011) assumed that the tilting parameter is known or can be estimated from external data, in order to avoid the identifiability issue. To remove this serious limitation on the methodology, we use an instrument, i.e., a covariate related to the study variable but unrelated to the missing data propensity, to construct some estimating equations. Because these estimating equations are semiparametric, we profile the nonparametric component using a kernel-type estimator and then estimate the tilting parameter based on the profiled estimating equations and the generalized method of moments. Once the tilting parameter is estimated, so is the propensity, and then other population parameters can be estimated using the inverse propensity weighting approach. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators are established. The finite-sample performance of the estimators is studied through simulation, and a real-data example is also presented.