Heterogeneity, Stochasticity and Complexity in the Dynamics and Control of Mosquito-Borne Pathogens

A theory for the transmission dynamics and control of malaria was developed around a set of concepts, quantities, and mathematical models introduced by Ronald Ross. Decades later, Macdonald linked Ross's models to epidemiological and entomological data, developed the concept of the basic reproductive number, R0, and proposed a rudimentary theory of control based on sensitivity to parameters. Here, we review development of the Ross–Macdonald model, present one simple version, and provide an eclectic critique of the theory based on studies conducted more recently. While mosquito populations are logically necessary for mosquito-borne pathogen transmission, the study of transmission since then shows it is noisy, heterogeneous, and complex. Heterogeneity, stochasticity, and complexity represent important challenges for applying theory in context.

Compositional Verification using Model Checking and Theorem Proving

Collaborative embedded systems form groups in which individual systems collaborate to achieve an overall goal. To this end, new systems may join a group and participating systems can leave the group. Classical techniques for the formal modeling and analysis of distributed systems, however, are mainly based on a static notion of systems and thus are often not well suited for the modeling and analysis of collaborative embedded systems. In this chapter, we propose an alternative approach that allows for the verification of dynamically evolving systems and we demonstrate it in terms of a running example: a simple version of an adaptable and flexible factory.

Bridging Level-K to Nash Equilibrium

We introduce NLK, a model that connects the Nash equilibrium (NE) and Level-K. It allows a player in a game to believe that her opponent may be either less or as sophisticated as, she is, a view supported in psychology. We apply NLK to data from five published papers on static, dynamic, and auction games. NLK provides different predictions than those of the NE and Level-K; moreover, a simple version of NLK explains the experimental data better in many cases, with the same or lower number of parameters. We discuss extensions to games with more than two players and heterogeneous beliefs.

You cannot accurately estimate an individual’s loss aversion using an accept-reject task

Prospect theory's loss aversion is often measured in the accept-reject task, in which participants accept or reject the chance of playing a series of gambles. The gambles are two-branch 50/50 gambles with varying gain and loss amounts (e.g., 50% chance of winning $20 and a 50% chance of losing $10). Prospect theory quantifies loss aversion by scaling losses up by a parameter λ. Here we show that λ suffers from extremely poor parameter recoverability in the accept-reject task. λ cannot be reliably estimated even for a simple version of prospect theory with linear probability weighting and value functions. λ cannot be reliably estimated even in impractically large experiments with participants subject to thousands of choices. The poor recoverability is driven by a trade-off between λ and the other model parameters. However, a measure derived from these parameters is extremely well recovered—and corresponds to estimating the area of gain-loss space in which people accept gambles. This area is equivalent to the number of gambles accepted in a given choice set. That is, simply counting accept decisions is extremely reliably recovered—but using prospect theory to make further use of exactly which gambles were accepted and which were rejected does not work.

Lightweight Parallel Multi-Agent Epistemic Planning

We study a simple version of multi-agent epistemic planning where the number of parallel steps has to be minimized. We prove that this extension of classical planning is in PSPACE. We propose an encoding in PDDL and present some experiments providing evidence that this encoding allows us to solve practical problems. The types of problems we can encode include problems in which one agent can teach another agent how to perform a task and communication problems where some information must not be revealed to some agents.

Testing the simple and complex versions of Gloger’s rule in the Variable Antshrike (Thamnophilus caerulescens, Thamnophilidae)

Gloger’s rule is a classic ecogeographical principle that, in its simplest version, predicts animals should be darker in warmer and wetter climates. In a rarely tested more complex version, it also predicts animals should be more rufous in warmer and drier climates. The Variable Antshrike (Thamnophilus caerulescens) is a widely distributed South American passerine that presents an impressive amount of plumage color variation and occupies a wide variety of climatic conditions. Moreover, genetic and vocal evidence indicate ongoing hybridization in south-central Bolivia among 3 populations with very distinct plumages. We collected color data from 232 specimens from throughout this species’ distribution to test the predictions of Gloger’s rule. We found a negative correlation between brightness and precipitation, consistent with the simple version of Gloger’s rule. In contrast, we found that birds were darker in cooler climates, contrary to the simple version of Gloger’s rule, but consistent with recent findings in other taxa. We found support for both predictions of the complex Gloger’s rule and suggest it might be driven by background matching. We conclude by concurring with a recent suggestion that the simple version of Gloger’s rule should be reformulated exclusively in terms of humidity.

The role of the imaginary number in the Schrödinger equation

We explore one argument for the role of the imaginary number i in a simple version of the Schrödinger equation.

The Classical Guitar Companion

The Classical Guitar Companion is an anthology of exercises, études, and pieces organized according to technique or musical texture. Students are encouraged to work in multiple chapters, simultaneously depending on advice from a teacher or their own assessment of what they need. The author’s dual perspective, as an active performing artist and as a teacher who has trained hundreds of guitarists, results in a combination of pedagogical thoroughness and artistic insight. The book opens with a large section devoted to establishing a thorough knowledge of the guitar fingerboard through a systematic and rigorous study of scales and fingerboard harmony, which will lead to ease and fluency in sight-reading and reduce the time needed to learn a repertoire piece. The chapters cover scales exercises and studies, repeated notes, slurs, harmony, arpeggios, melody with accompaniment, counterpoint, and florid/virtuoso studies. Each section contains text and examples that connect material to fingering practices of composers and practice strategies to open a path to interpretive freedom in performance. Exploring advice found in the standard pedagogical literature for guitar that effectively places constraints on a student’s long-term development, the book offers information designed to help students recognize and overcome these constraints. When the book presents the simple version of a technique, it does so through consideration of the technique’s advanced version. Many guitar composers are represented but there are also transcriptions of relevant lute music that expand the scope of the book. The book is designed to serve as a companion for years of guitar study.

NASE workshop: Eclipses with models and camera obscura

Ibn al-Haytham (known as Alhazen in occident), extensively studied the camera obscura phenomenon in the early 11th century. This instrument was used to obtain the projected image of a landscape on the screen and also was addopte by the scientists and famous painters along the centuries, to experiment with it until their final evolution as the modern photografic camera. The resource in the simple version of the “pinhole camera” can be used at the classroom to experience several phenomena, such us solar eclipses and Moon phases, and to each about optics and geometry. This contribution presents an application of this ingeniuos tool in the framework of solar eclipses, where the scale models are important to understand what really happens with the Sun-Earth-Moon system.