Analysis on Periodic Fluctuation of Economy at County Level

On most occasions, economic development is embodied with periodic characteristics. Comprehensive understanding of the economic cycle is of great significance to guiding the formulation of macroeconomic policies and maintaining stable economic growth. Since the reform and opening up, Tengzhou's economy has maintained a momentum of rapid growth, which, however, is characterized by obvious periodic fluctuations. This paper makes an in-depth analysis of the characteristics and causes of economic periodic fluctuation in Tengzhou, in order to have a comprehensive understanding of the economic cycle, and the economic law is adopted to take corresponding economic growth measures in different periods of economic development, thus achieving high-quality economic development. In this paper, the study of county economic cycle is not subject to economic theory, rather the study is conducted with a large number of historical background and local economic development characteristics. The economy of Tengzhou City, since the reform and opening up, is divided into five cycles. The conclusion is drawn that the county economic cycle is affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, industrial structure adjustment, investment and consumption fluctuations and other factors. We put forward targeted suggestions on using the economic cycle to promote high-quality economic development.

Research on Low-Speed Driving Model of Ultrasonic Motor Based on Beat Traveling Wave Theory

This paper proposes a driving method, the superimposed pulse driving method, that can make an ultrasonic motor run at a low speed. Although this method solves the periodic oscillation of speed in a traditional low-speed driving motor, it still has a small periodic fluctuation, which affects the stability of the speed. To reduce the fluctuation rate of the motor speed, the structure model and driving model of the motor are established, based on the theory of a beat traveling wave, and the motion characteristics of the particle point are analyzed in this paper. The simulation curve of the motor speed is obtained according to the stator and rotor contact model and the transfer model. The research shows that the driving method introduced in this paper causes the stator surface to generate a traveling beat wave, and the driving end of the stator generates an intermittent reciprocating vibration and drives the rotor rotation, which is the mechanism of low-speed operation when the driving method is used to drive the motor, as well as the reason for the periodic fluctuation of the motor speed. To improve the speed stability, this paper controlled the output performance of the motor by changing the two control variables—prepressure and frequency difference—and concluded that the variation trend of the average speed and speed volatility were consistent with the variation trend of the motor’s average speed determinant and the speed volatility determinant, respectively, which is verified by the velocity measurement experiment and the vibration measurement experiment. These insights lay the theoretical foundation for the velocity adjustment and stability optimization and, finally, the application of the new driving method is prospected.

An influence of characteristics of amplitude fluctuation on detectability of alert sound of electric powered vehicles

The motor sound on electric powered vehicle is quiet at low speeds. Thus, pedestrians have difficulty detecting the vehicles approaching them under urban noise. Although the vehicles were designed to play an alert sound to solve this problem, it has not been solved yet. Our previous studies found that characteristics of amplitude fluctuation, fluctuation frequency, non-periodic fluctuation and amplitude envelope, are effective to make them detect approaching vehicles. However, those studies were investigated under only a specific actual environment, weren't examined validity of detectability in those studies. Here, this paper investigates under another actual environment, examine the validity. Investigations were carried out by using synthesized complex sounds which were designed to have periodic and non-periodic amplitude fluctuations. Those complex sounds have characteristics of amplitude fluctuations in gasoline powered vehicle. Amplitude envelopes such as modulation wave in amplitude-modulated sound were set for deviations for time and amplitude, and amplitude-modulated complex sounds were synthesized using sine wave, sawtooth wave, and rectangle wave. Then, their effects on detectability by pedestrians were assessed in another actual environment. The results found that amplitude fluctuation enhances the ability with which people detect approaching electric powered vehicles in case of some complex sound.

Correlation-aided method for identification and gradation of periodicities in hydrologic time series

Identification of periodicities in hydrological time series and evaluation of their statistical significance are not only important for water-related studies, but also challenging issues due to the complex variability of hydrological processes. In this article, we develop a “Moving Correlation Coefficient Analysis” (MCCA) method for identifying periodicities of a time series. In the method, the correlation between the original time series and the periodic fluctuation is used as a criterion, aiming to seek out the periodic fluctuation that fits the original time series best, and to evaluate its statistical significance. Consequently, we take periodic components consisting of simple sinusoidal variation as an example, and do statistical experiments to verify the applicability and reliability of the developed method by considering various parameters changing. Three other methods commonly used, harmonic analysis method (HAM), power spectrum method (PSM) and maximum entropy method (MEM) are also applied for comparison. The results indicate that the efficiency of each method is positively connected to the length and amplitude of samples, but negatively correlated with the mean value, variation coefficient and length of periodicity, without relationship with the initial phase of periodicity. For those time series with higher noise component, the developed MCCA method performs best among the four methods. Results from the hydrological case studies in the Yangtze River basin further verify the better performances of the MCCA method compared to other three methods for the identification of periodicities in hydrologic time series.

Investigation of the Transmission Accuracy of Ball Screw Considering Errors and Preloading Level

Transmission accuracy is one of the most important parameters in ball screw mechanism (BSM), however, very few researches can be found on the transmission accuracy modelling for BSM. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel model to predicate the transmission accuracy of BSM considering the manufacturing errors, installation errors, as well as the errors due to the contact deformation under different loading status. Meanwhile, the transmission accuracy of a typical BSM under five different preloading levels is measured on the basis of a transmission accuracy measuring system. The experimental results show that the difference is 21.6% under no preload condition, and is less than 11% under different preload conditions, largely owing to the uneven distribution of clearance can increase the travel deviation. Further analysis shows that the eccentricity error, which belongs to the installation error, is the most important factor, mainly generating the periodic fluctuation and amplitude of the transmission error. More importantly, the travel deviation increases with the increase of the preload, which indicates that the transmission accuracy of the BSM deteriorates when the load is increased.

How I Manage cyclic thrombocytopenia

Cyclic thrombocytopenia (CTP) is a rare disease, which is characterized by periodic fluctuation of the platelet count. The pathogenesis of CTP is unknown and most likely heterogeneous. Patients with CTP are almost always misdiagnosed as having primary immune thrombocytopenia (ITP). The interval between ITP and CTP diagnosis can be many years. CTP patients often receive ITP-specific therapies including corticosteroids, thrombopoietin receptor agonists, rituximab and splenectomy which are followed by a transient increase in platelet count that is wrongly attributed to treatment effect with inevitable "relapse". CTP can be diagnosed by frequent platelet count monitoring which reveals a typical pattern of periodic platelet cycling. An early diagnosis of CTP will prevent these patients from being exposed to possibly harmful therapies. The bleeding phenotype is usually mild and consists of mucocutaneous bleeding at the time when the platelet count is at its nadir. Severe bleeding from other sites can occur but is rare. Some patients respond to cyclosporine A or to danazol, but most patients do not respond to any therapy. CTP can be associated with hematological malignancies or disorders of the thyroid gland. Nevertheless, spontaneous remissions can occur, even after many years.

The Evolution Characteristics of Systemic Risk in China’s Stock Market Based on a Dynamic Complex Network

The stock market is a complex system with unpredictable stock price fluctuations. When the positive feedback in the market amplifies, the systemic risk will increase rapidly. During the last 30 years of development, the mechanism and governance system of China’s stock market have been constantly improving, but irrational shocks have still appeared suddenly in the last decade, making investment decisions risky. Therefore, based on the daily return of all a-shares in China, this paper constructs a dynamic complex network of individual stocks, and represents the systemic risk of the market using the average weighting degree, as well as the adjusted structural entropy, of the network. In order to eliminate the influence of disturbance factors, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and grey relational analysis (GRA) are used to decompose and reconstruct the sequences to obtain the evolution trend and periodic fluctuation of systemic risk. The results show that the systemic risk of China’s stock market as a whole shows a downward trend, and the periodic fluctuation of systemic risk has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the abnormal fluctuation of the stock market. Further, each rise of systemic risk corresponds to external factor shocks and internal structural problems.