The Influencing Factors of Tobacco Trade Flow Between China and RCEP Countries

Against the background of the establishment of RCEP, and based on the trade data from 2002 to 2018, this paper studies the current situation of tobacco trade in China, builds a trade gravity model, and analyzes the correlation between China’s tobacco trade flows with its RCEP partners. Different factors include economic, demographic, geographical and tariff factors. According to the results of the research, RCEP member states can take advantage of population and geographical distance to strengthen mutual influence and penetration of tobacco culture, upgrade logistics infrastructure, and make targeted concessions on tobacco tariff rates to promote the development of tobacco trade within the region.

AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF TRADE STATUS AND DETERMINANTS BETWEEN CHINA AND "ONE BELT- ONE ROAD" COUNTRIES-BASED ON TRADE GRAVITY MODEL

“One Road-One Belt”, (Belt and Road Initiative, BRI) reminiscent of the Silk Road, is a massive infrastructure and trade project, initiated by China; that would stretch from East Asia to Europe, somehow recognized by the international community. Despite of criticism of this project, it is considered as an effective tool for promoting regional and bilateral trade deals. In this paper we have pointed out the problems that hindered the bilateral trades among countries along the route. Based on Trade gravity Model; bilateral trade model between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” was empirically tested in the article, followed by some suggestions.

The Effect of Economic Openness, Democracy, and Institutional Quality on Indonesia Exports to ASEAN Plus Three

The ASEAN Charter Agreement and the cooperation of the East Asia Free Trade Area ASEAN+3 provide momentum for ASEAN countries to increase economic openness, strengthen the application of democratic principles, and improve institutional quality to enhance trade cooperation. This study aims to explore the role of economic openness, democracy, and institutional quality in increasing Indonesia's exports to ASEAN countries plus three during the 1996-2017 period using the augmented gravity model. The results showed that the openness of ASEAN+3 to trade (trade% of GDP), democracy, and institutional quality of Indonesia and ASEAN+3 as Indonesia's export destination had positive effects in increasing Indonesia's exports to ASEAN+3. However foreign direct investment in Indonesia and ASEAN+3 does not affect the export. Keyword: trade gravity model, economic openness, democracy, governance institution, Indonesia's export, ASEAN+3

An Empirical Study of Trade Status and Determinants between China and "One Belt- One Road" Countries- Based on Trade gravity Model

“One Road-One Belt”, (Belt and Road Initiative, BRI) reminiscent of the Silk Road, is a massive infrastructure and trade project, initiated by China; that would stretch from East Asia to Europe, somehow recognized by the international community. Despite of criticism of this project, it is considered as an effective tool for promoting regional and bilateral trade deals. In this paper we have pointed out the problems that hindered the bilateral trades among countries along the route. Based on Trade gravity Model; bilateral trade model between China and the countries along the “Belt and Road” was empirically tested in the article, followed by some suggestions.

Was trade openness with China an initial driver of cross-country human coronavirus infections?

PurposeThis paper aims to consider if an initial driver of the cross-country global coronavirus pandemic was trade openness with China.Design/methodology/approachThe authors estimate simple, seemingly unrelated and zero-inflated count data specifications of a gravity model of trade between China and its trading partners, where the number of human coronavirus infections in a country is a function of the number of distinct good/services exported and imported from China.FindingsParameter estimates reveal that the number of early cross-country human coronavirus infections increased with respect to trade openness with China, as measured by the number of distinct Chinese exported and imported goods/services, and can account for approximately 24% of early infections among China's trading partners. The findings suggest that one of the costs of trade openness and globalization is that they can be a driver of cross-country human disease pandemics.Originality/valueThis inquiry constitutes a first approach at embedding the possible disease pandemic costs of free trade, trade openness and globalization within a trade gravity model.

An Empirical Study on the Trade Impact of Cross border E-commerce on ASEAN and China under the Framework of RECP

As an indispensable part of future global trade, the cross-border e-commerce will change the form and volume of the current global trade with globalization. Taking China and ten ASEAN countries as the research object, this paper empirically tests whether the cross-border e-commerce under the RCEP framework will affect the trade scale between China and ten ASEAN countries through the trade gravity model. As the research suggests, the impact of GDP and the Internet popularity on the trade scale of different ASEAN countries and China is not the same. Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Thailand and other countries have larger trade volume with China due to economic factor, Internet, geographical location and other factors, while Brunei and Laos, which are closer to China with smaller economic volume, have more obvious shortcomings and are less related to the trade with China.

Impact of Multi-Dimensional and Dynamic Distance on China’s Exports of Wooden Forest Products to Countries along the “Belt and Road”

National distance (ND) is the key factor that affects international trade but the traditional trade gravity model only considers spatial distance, which is not enough. This paper therefore constructs a trade gravity model and a Generalized Moment Estimation Model (GMM) based on four dimensions—spatial distance (SD), economic distance (ED), institutional distance (ID) and cultural distance (CD)—comprehensively analyzing the impact of the heterogeneity represented by national distance on exports of wooden forest products (EWFP) from China to countries along the “Belt and Road” using panel data from 2001 to2018. The results show that the impacts of the four types of ND on China’s EWFP are different and that a major change has taken place since the “Belt and Road” initiative was proposed, within which CD has become the key factor that hinders exports, while the traditional SD is not significant. Therefore, using NDs instead of the SD of the traditional trade gravity model is much more reasonable. Finally, this paper proposes some suggestions to reduce the ND between China and the route countries and to promote cooperation among them.

Effect of preferential trade agreements on China’s energy trade from Chinese and exporters’ perspectives

Purpose China is a major energy import powerhouse, its trade deals have significant impact on international energy trade and global energy markets. The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of energy in China’s preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and their impact on Chinese imports of oil, gas and coal. Design/methodology/approach An extended trade gravity model framework is applied to explore the dynamics of China’s annualized energy import flows from the 22 economies that have PTAs with it for the period 1995–2015. Findings The effect of PTAs on trade patterns varies across the product groups and agreement clauses. The dominant factor affecting trade flows of coal, crude oil and oil products is the average tariff level. Its impact is less significant for gas imports, which are more affected by policy arrangements represented by a PTA variable. The depth and scope of a PTA do not affect Chinese energy imports patterns. Research limitations/implications This paper is focused on exploring the effect of China’s trade and foreign relations strategies on its energy imports through the prism of its PTAs. Estimating the direct impact of China’s initiatives in the areas of trade, investment, security, culture, etc., on its trade flows of energy products and other product groups using the methodological framework proposed in this study would contribute to better understanding of the issue. Practical implications The findings can assist both China and energy exporting countries that target Chinese market in better understanding the drivers of trade flows of energy products and design their PTA strategies accordingly. Originality/value This study applies the trade gravity model framework to assess the impact of specific components of preferential trade agreements – tariff reduction and depth and scope of agreement – on energy trade flows differentiated by product group.