The vulnerability sourcebook and climate impact chains – a standardised framework for a climate vulnerability and risk assessment

Purpose This paper aims to present the “Vulnerability Sourcebook” methodology, a standardised framework for the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk in the context of adaptation planning. The Vulnerability Sourcebook has been developed for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and has been applied in more than twenty countries worldwide. Design/methodology/approach It is based on a participative development of so-called climate impact chains, which are an analytical concept to better understand, systemise and prioritise the climate factors as well as environmental and socio-economic factors that drive climate related threats, vulnerabilities and risks in a specific system. Impact chains serve as the backbone for an operational climate vulnerability assessment with indicators based on quantitative approaches (data, models) combined with expert assessments. In this paper, the authors present the concept and applications of the original Vulnerability Sourcebook, published in 2015, which was based on the IPCC AR4 concept of climate vulnerability. In Section 6 of this paper, the authors report how this concept has been adapted to the current IPCC AR5 concept of climate risks. Findings The application of the Sourcebook is demonstrated in three case studies in Bolivia, Pakistan and Burundi. The results indicate that particularly the participative development of impact chains helped with generating a common picture on climate vulnerabilities and commitment for adaptation planning within a region. The mixed methods approach (considering quantitative and qualitative information) allows for a flexible application in different contexts. Challenges are mainly the availability of climate (change) and socio-economic data, as well as the transparency of value-based decisions in the process. Originality/value The Vulnerability Sourcebook offers a standardised framework for the assessment of climate vulnerability and risk in the context of adaptation planning.

Phenological changes in Europe are still attributable to climate change induced warming

<p>During 1971-2000 phenological responses of wild species in spring and summer matched the warming pattern in Europe, whereas timing of farming activities as well as autumnal leaf colouring did not mirror climate change to the same extent (Menzel et al. GCB 2006). These findings were a backbone of the corresponding global attribution study of the IPCC AR4 (Rosenzweig et al. 2007, 2008). Two decades of warming later, however, new phenological findings suggest that especially a lack of chilling and / or increasing influence of photoperiod may have lowered the phenological temperature response and that adaptation in agricultural management is taking place. We therefore updated the GCB 2006 study by asking three questions: What drives the inherent variation of trends? Can we now detect a warming signal in “false” agricultural (i.e. those being directly or indirectly determined by farmers’ management) and autumn phases? Is there still an attributable warming signal in phenology?</p><p>The complete phenological dataset of Germany, Austria and Switzerland (1951-2018, ~97.000 times series, corresponding to 96.3% of PEP725 data) was analysed. We determined linear trends, studied their variation by plant traits / phenogroups, across season and time, and followed IPCC methodology for attributing phenological changes to warming patterns.</p><p>For spring and summer phases of wild plants we found more (significantly) advancing trends (~90% and ~60% sign.) which were stronger in early spring, at higher elevations, but smaller for non-woody insect-pollinated species. Although mean trend strength decreased, changes in spring were strongly attributable to warming in spring and winter. We had similar but less strong findings for agricultural crops in these seasons. In contrast only ~75% of phenological phases set by farmers’ decisions were advancing, however this was the only phenological group for which the mean advance increased, indicating adaptation. Equally trends in farming phases in spring and summer were attributable to warming in winter and summer, respectively. Leaf coloring and fall was now predominantly delayed (57%) which was attributable to winter and spring warming, too.</p><p>Thus, this update of the GCB2006 study demonstrates that there is still a significant and attributable phenological change pattern in Europe, in which number of (significant) trends pointing into the direction of warming increased, but mean trend strength mostly decreased, probably due to a lack of chilling and smaller forcing trends. More attention should be paid to the inherent variability of trends with traits / species groups, season and time triggering divers (e.g. ecological) consequences of these phenological shifts. Still existing differences between the generative period of crops and wild species as well as between the farming season and the general growing season call for more research in this area.</p>

Isu Perubahan Iklim Dalam Konteks Keamanan Dan Ketahanan Nasional

ABSTRACTClimat change (CC) which contributed to increased conflict/war had implicitly emerged in the IPCC’s 3rd and 4th reports (IPCC, 2001; 2007); meanwhile on the 5th report (IPCC, 2014) emphasized more on human security. The risk/impact of CC to human security was shown through interaction between livelihood, conflict, culture, and migration. The purpose of the stydy was to gained an understanding of the correlation between CC and the occurrence of conflict/war; knowing the impacts of CC on national resilience; explaining the phenomenon of CC on national resilience; and explained the linkages between human security and national resilience.This research was done through conceptual and comparative approach.The results showed that CC did not contribute directly to the occurrence of conflict/war;the impact of CC disrupts people's livelihoods thereby reducing national resilience; CC could be viewed as a disturbance and/or threat; and basically national resilience and human security could be synchronized because both of them seeked to brought guarantee for the security, safety, and individual prosperity.ABSTRAK Perubahan iklim (PI) diasumsikan berkontribusi terhadap meningkatnya konflik/perang. Pandangan tersebut secara implisit telah muncul dalam laporan Panel Antarpemerintah tentang Perubahan Iklim(IPCC)ke-3 (IPCC TAR, 2001) dan ke-4 (IPCC AR4, 2007); sebaliknya pada laporan ke-5 (IPCC AR5, 2014) memfokuskan pada keamanan manusia. Skema risiko PI pada keamanan manusia ditunjukkan melalui interaksi antara mata pencaharian, konflik, budaya, dan migrasi. Penelitian ini untuk menjelaskan korelasi antara PI dengan terjadinya konflik/perang; menggambarkan dampak PI bagi ketahanan nasional (Tannas); menjelaskan isu PI ditinjau dari konsepTannas; dan menjelaskan keterkaitan antara keamanan manusia dengan Tannas. Penelitian dilakukan melalui dua pendekatan, yaitu: pendekatan konseptual dan pendekatan komparatif. Diperoleh hasil bahwa PI tidak berkorelasi langsung terhadap terjadinya konflik/perang; PI mengganggu mata pencaharian masyarakat, sehingga menurunkan Tannas; dalam konsep Tannas, PI merupakan gangguan dan atau ancaman; dan Tannas dapat disetarakan dengan keamanan manusia karena keduanya berupaya menghadirkan penjaminan keamanan, keselamatan, dan kesejahteraan individu.

A Case Study on Power Outage Impacts from Future Hurricane Sandy Scenarios

Hurricane Sandy (2012, referred to as Current Sandy) was among the most devastating storms to impact Connecticut’s overhead electric distribution network, resulting in over 15 000 outage locations that affected more than 500 000 customers. In this paper, the severity of tree-caused outages in Connecticut is estimated under future-climate Hurricane Sandy simulations, each exhibiting strengthened winds and heavier rain accumulation over the study area from large-scale thermodynamic changes in the atmosphere and track changes in the year ~2100 (referred to as Future Sandy). Three machine-learning models used five weather simulations and the ensemble mean of Current and Future Sandy, along with land-use and overhead utility infrastructure data, to predict the severity and spatial distribution of outages across the Eversource Energy service territory in Connecticut. To assess the influence of increased precipitation from Future Sandy, two approaches were compared: an outage model fit with a full set of variables accounting for both wind and precipitation, and a reduced set with only wind. Future Sandy displayed an outage increase of 42%–64% when using the ensemble of WRF simulations fit with three different outage prediction models. This study is a proof of concept for the assessment of increased outage risk resulting from potential changes in tropical cyclone intensity associated with late-century thermodynamic changes driven by the IPCC AR4 A2 emissions scenario.

SAZONALIDADE DA PRECIPITAÇÃO SOBRE A AMAZÔNIA LEGAL BRASILEIRA: CLIMA ATUAL E PROJEÇÕES FUTURAS USANDO O MODELO REGCM4 (SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE BRAZILIAN LEGAL AMAZON: CLIMATE CURRENT AND FUTURE PROJECTIONS USING REGCM4 MODEL)

Um downscaling dinâmico usando o modelo regional RegCM4 aninhado ao modelo global HadGEM2 com cenário RCP45 do IPCC-AR4 foi conduzido para a Amazônia, com a finalidade de investigar os aspectos regionais da precipitação sazonal durante o clima atual (últimos 25 anos, 1989/2013) e clima futuro (próximos 25 anos, 2015/2039). As simulações para o clima atual indicaram que o modelo regional é capaz de simular as principais características da variabilidade espacial da precipitação nos quatro trimestres ao longo do ano, contudo apresenta erros sistemáticos ao longo da região, especialmente a subestimativa de precipitação na porção nordeste da Amazônia (Amapá e norte/nordeste do Pará) no período chuvoso. As projeções regionais mostram que as mudanças mais expressivas no clima futuro devem ocorrer no setor sudeste/leste da Amazônia com indicações de reduções de até 30% no volume de chuva do trimestre JJA numa grande área que abrange o norte do Mato Grosso e Tocantins, sudeste do Pará e leste do Maranhão.

Modelos acoplados do IPCC-AR4 e o gradiente meridional de temperatura da superfície do mar no Atlântico Tropical: relações com a precipitação no norte do nordeste do Brasil

Este artigo mostra como três modelos acoplados do Intergovernmental on Panel Climate Change - (IPCC-AR4), o FGOALS1.0G - LASG do Institute of Atmospheric Physics of China, o GISSER da National Aeronautics Space Admnistration (NASA) e o GFDL_CM2 da National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), simularam a variabilidade do gradiente meridional de Temperatura da Superfície do Mar (TSM), entre os meses de fevereiro a maio, no Atlântico Tropical (1901-1999). A precipitação durante a estação chuvosa (fevereiro a maio) no setor norte do Nordeste do Brasil (NEB) foi também analisada pelos três modelos e comparada com as observações. Os modelos GISSER e FGOALS1.0G mostraram melhor desempenho na simulação do sinal do gradiente meridional de TSM no Atlântico Tropical para o período de 1901 a 1999. Destaca-se que os modelos apresentaram um melhor desempenho na simulação da tendência decadal, conseguindo explicar entre 50% a 80% da variabilidade do gradiente, com a TSM do setor sul sendo melhor simulada.